The Race to Take Down the Greatest Trader Who Ever Lived

 

48,385 views Oct 22, 2023

Steven Cohen was at the center of the largest insider trading scandal in history.

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Real gross domestic product, or real GDP, rose at an annualized rate of 4.9%, according to the advance estimate for the third quarter from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This increase is above the forecast of 4.3%. 

• The advance estimate suggests much stronger growth than the roughly 2% rates seen in the first and second quarters of the year.

• Real personal consumption expenditures rose 4.0%, quicker than the 0.8% in the second quarter, based on seasonally adjusted data at annual rates. 
• Meanwhile, real fixed investments slowed from 5.2% in the second quarter to 0.8% in the third quarter. . .

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Hedge fund billionaire Steve Cohen expects a recession to come-and-go quickly before a stock market rally in 2024

Phil Rosen 

Oct 27, 2023, 9:06 AM PDT

Steve Cohen, the billionaire chief of hedge fund Point72 and the owner of the New York Mets, has an upbeat outlook for the US economy and financial markets. 
In comments shared Wednesday at a Robinhood Conference, per Fortune, he said a short-lived recession could hit the US before the end of this year. 

• It could take the shape of a "fake scare" that briefly spooks investors but the repercussions won't last. 

"It's only going to be short-term in nature," Cohen said, adding that his firm maintains a "pretty positive" outlook for the economy.

On Thursday, real gross domestic product data showed the US economy grew at a 4.9% annualized rate in the third quarter.  Cohen said he predicts economic growth to increase in 2024 and stocks to climb 3%-5%, which could ultimately spur the Fed to keep interest rates "higher than people think," the report said.

Earlier this week, investing pioneer Rob Arnott shared a contrasting outlook for the economy this week. He told CNBC that the economy's recent sign of strength should not be taken as reassurance for a no-recession scenario.
"People will say that recessions don't start with a booming economy," Arnott said. "That's not true. Recessions always start with an economy that's been booming. It's the nature of the peak and the rolling over." 

Meanwhile, Jerome Powell and other central bank officials have shared divided takes on the path of monetary policy. 

• Inflation remains nearly double the Fed's 2% target, though CME's FedWatch Tool shows markets do not expect a rate hike in November or December. 

"Additional evidence of persistently above-trend growth, or that tightness in the labor market is no longer easing, could put further progress on inflation at risk and could warrant further tightening of monetary policy," Powell said in comments October 19.