After a week of record highs for U.S. equity indices, markets will resume trading on Monday, needing to absorb several pivotal developments from the weekend.
These include new US tariff threats against the EU and Mexico, and with that, the possibility of retaliatory actions.
As detailed below, market participants will also be closely scrutinizing a new wave of global economic data, which is poised to shed light on both the trajectory of global growth and underlying inflationary pressures.
Key Economic Indicators:
Tuesday's US CPI inflation report will be monitored closely for indications of any price "pass-through" effect from the recently announced tariffs.
Beyond the headline figure, analysts will scrutinize core CPI to assess underlying inflationary trends at a time of a notable dispersion of views on what the Federal Reserve should be doing.
Thursday's US retail sales numbers are the major event for assessing the robustness of consumer demand and overall economic health. In between these two releases, the Fed's Beige Book will be published, containing interesting information on current economic conditions gathered by the 12 Federal Reserve Banks from businesses, community organizations, economists, and market experts across their respective districts.
It's often scrutinized for emerging trends not yet visible in official statistics.
Turning to China, it’s a heavy week of data releases, including industrial production, retail sales, GDP, and trade.
We will also get industrial production data for the EU.
Policy Discussions:
Policy discussions this week include the G-20 Finance Ministers meeting in South Africa, where little substance is expected in terms of major policy shifts or breakthroughs. Nonetheless, statements and communiqués from this gathering will be parsed for any shifts in global economic coordination or rhetoric.
Market participants will also be interested in remarks from ECB (European Central Bank) central bankers, which could offer insights into their evolving monetary policy stance amidst slower Eurozone growth.
Finally, Tuesday's comments from the UK’s top two economic policymakers, Chancellor Rachel Reeves and Governor Andrew Bailey, will be timely given the recently disappointing growth and fiscal data.
The next day, Britain will release its inflation data. #economy#markets#growth#inflation#retailsales#tariffs#trade
2:49 PM · Jul 13, 2025
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