Saturday, January 30, 2021

BEA Bureau of Economic Analysis: Gross Domestic Product, 4th Quarter and Year 2020 (Advance Estimate)

 
Quick-Read Synopsis: GDP for 2020

Real GDP decreased 3.5 percent in 2020 (from the 2019 annual level to the 2020 annual level), compared with an increase of 2.2 percent in 2019 (table 1).

The decrease in real GDP in 2020 reflected decreases in PCE, exports, private inventory investment, nonresidential fixed investment, and state and local government that were partly offset by increases in federal government spending and residential fixed investment. Imports decreased (table 2).

The decrease in PCE in 2020 was more than accounted for by a decrease in services (led by food services and accommodations, health care, and recreation services). The decrease in exports reflected decreases in both services (led by travel) and goods (mainly non-automotive capital goods). The decrease in private inventory investment reflected widespread decreases led by retail trade (mainly motor vehicle dealers) and wholesale trade (mainly durable goods industries). The decrease in nonresidential fixed investment reflected decreases in structures (led by mining exploration, shafts, and wells) and equipment (led by transportation equipment) that were partly offset by an increase in intellectual property products (more than accounted for by software). The decrease in state and local government spending reflected a decrease in consumption expenditures (led by compensation).

The increase in federal government spending reflected an increase in nondefense consumption expenditures (led by an increase in purchases of intermediate services that supported the processing and administration of Paycheck Protection Program loan applications by banks on behalf of the federal government). The increase in residential fixed investment primarily reflected increases in improvements as well as brokers' commissions and other ownership transfer costs.

Current-dollar GDP decreased 2.3 percent, or $500.6 billion, in 2020 to a level of $20.93 trillion, compared with an increase of 4.0 percent, or $821.3 billion, in 2019 (tables 1 and 3).

NEW RELEASE

EMBARGOED UNTIL RELEASE AT 8:30 A.M. EST, Thursday, January 28, 2021
BEA 21-02

Gross Domestic Product, 4th Quarter and Year 2020 (Advance Estimate)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 4.0 percent in the fourth quarter of 2020 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 33.4 percent.

> The GDP estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see "Source Data for the Advance Estimate" on page 4). > The "second" estimate for the fourth quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on February 25, 2021.

Real GDP: Percent change from preceding quarter, Q4 '20

Real GDP: Percent change from preceding quarter

The increase in real GDP reflected increases in exports, nonresidential fixed investment, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), residential fixed investment, and private inventory investment that were partly offset by decreases in state and local government spending and federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased (table 2).

COVID-19 Impact on the Fourth-Quarter 2020 GDP Estimate
The increase in fourth quarter GDP reflected both the continued economic recovery from the sharp declines earlier in the year and the ongoing impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, including new restrictions and closures that took effect in some areas of the United States.
> The full economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic cannot be quantified in the GDP estimate for the fourth quarter of 2020 because the impacts are generally embedded in source data and cannot be separately identified.
For more information, see the Technical Note.

The increase in exports primarily reflected an increase in goods (led by industrial supplies and materials).

The increase in nonresidential fixed investment reflected increases in all components, led by equipment.

The increase in PCE was more than accounted for by spending on services (led by health care); spending on goods decreased (led by food and beverages).

The increase in residential fixed investment primarily reflected investment in new single-family housing.

The increase in private inventory investment primarily reflected increases in manufacturing and in wholesale trade that were partly offset by a decrease in retail trade.

Current‑dollar GDP increased 6.0 percent at an annual rate, or $309.2 billion, in the fourth quarter to a level of $21.48 trillion.

> In the third quarter, GDP increased 38.3 percent, or $1.65 trillion (tables 1 and 3). More information on the source data that underlie the estimates is available in the Key Source and Data Assumptions file on BEA's website.

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.7 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 3.3 percent in the third quarter (table 4). The PCE price index increased 1.5 percent, compared with an increase of 3.7 percent in the third quarter. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 1.4 percent, compared with an increase of 3.4 percent.

Personal Income

Current-dollar personal income decreased $339.7 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with a decrease of $541.5 billion in the third quarter.

The decrease in personal income was more than accounted for by decreases in personal current transfer receipts (notably, government social benefits related to the winding down of CARES Act pandemic relief programs) and proprietors' income that were partly offset by increases in compensation and personal income receipts on assets (table 8).

Disposable personal income decreased $372.5 billion, or 8.1 percent, in the fourth quarter, compared with a decrease of $638.9 billion, or 13.2 percent, in the third quarter.

Real disposable personal income decreased 9.5 percent, compared with a decrease of 16.3 percent.

Personal saving was $2.33 trillion in the fourth quarter, compared with $2.83 trillion in the third quarter. The personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 13.4 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with 16.0 percent in the third quarter. Additional information on factors impacting quarterly personal income and saving can be found in "Effects of Selected Federal Pandemic Response Programs on Personal Income."

GDP for 2020

Real GDP decreased 3.5 percent in 2020 (from the 2019 annual level to the 2020 annual level), compared with an increase of 2.2 percent in 2019 (table 1).

The decrease in real GDP in 2020 reflected decreases in PCE, exports, private inventory investment, nonresidential fixed investment, and state and local government that were partly offset by increases in federal government spending and residential fixed investment. Imports decreased (table 2).

The decrease in PCE in 2020 was more than accounted for by a decrease in services (led by food services and accommodations, health care, and recreation services). The decrease in exports reflected decreases in both services (led by travel) and goods (mainly non-automotive capital goods). The decrease in private inventory investment reflected widespread decreases led by retail trade (mainly motor vehicle dealers) and wholesale trade (mainly durable goods industries). The decrease in nonresidential fixed investment reflected decreases in structures (led by mining exploration, shafts, and wells) and equipment (led by transportation equipment) that were partly offset by an increase in intellectual property products (more than accounted for by software). The decrease in state and local government spending reflected a decrease in consumption expenditures (led by compensation).

The increase in federal government spending reflected an increase in nondefense consumption expenditures (led by an increase in purchases of intermediate services that supported the processing and administration of Paycheck Protection Program loan applications by banks on behalf of the federal government). The increase in residential fixed investment primarily reflected increases in improvements as well as brokers' commissions and other ownership transfer costs.

Current-dollar GDP decreased 2.3 percent, or $500.6 billion, in 2020 to a level of $20.93 trillion, compared with an increase of 4.0 percent, or $821.3 billion, in 2019 (tables 1 and 3).

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.2 percent in 2020, compared with an increase of 1.6 percent in 2019 (table 4). The PCE price index also increased 1.2 percent in 2020, compared with an increase of 1.5 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 1.4 percent, compared with an increase of 1.7 percent.

Measured from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020, real GDP decreased 2.5 percent during the period (table 6). That compared with an increase of 2.3 percent during 2019.

The price index for gross domestic purchases, as measured from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020, increased 1.3 percent during 2020. That compared with an increase of 1.4 percent during 2019. The PCE price index increased 1.2 percent, compared with an increase of 1.5 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 1.4 percent, compared with an increase of 1.6 percent.

Source Data for the Advance Estimate

Information on the source data and key assumptions used for unavailable source data in the advance estimate is provided in a Technical Note that is posted with the news release on BEA's website. A detailed Key Source Data and Assumptions file is also posted for each release. For information on updates to GDP, see the "Additional Information" section that follows.

*          *          *

Next release, February 25, 2021 at 8:30 A.M. EST
Gross Domestic Product (Second Estimate) Fourth Quarter and Year 2020

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Release Dates in 2021
Estimate 2020 Q4 and
Year 2020
2021 Q12021 Q22021 Q3
Gross Domestic Product    
Advance EstimateJanuary 28, 2021April 29, 2021July 29, 2021October 28, 2021
Second EstimateFebruary 25, 2021May 27, 2021August 26, 2021November 24, 2021
Third EstimateMarch 25, 2021June 24, 2021September 30, 2021December 22, 2021
     

Gross Domestic Product by Industry

March 25, 2021June 24, 2021September 30, 2021December 22, 2021
     
Corporate Profits     
Preliminary Estimate---May 27, 2021August 26, 2021November 24, 2021
Revised EstimateMarch 25, 2021June 24, 2021September 30, 2021December 22, 2021
Page last modified on 1/28/21

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A lot of what Giuliani stated was made here in Arizona

MEETING DETAILS [Tentative]: Mesa City Council Thu 02.04. 2021 REMOTE ZOOM VIRTUAL @ 5:45 PM

There was no study session last Thursday 01.27.2021
Reference > Mesa LegiStar Feb 2021 Calendar https://mesa.legistar.com/Calendar.aspx 
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Setting the Agenda e.g..When was the last time there was any agenda item initiatiated by input by citizens?
 5 Best Practices To Run Engaging Virtual Meetings - Trainual
 
EVER WONDER WHY REMOTE MEETINGS DON'T FEEL THE SAME??????????????
Why remote meetings don't feel the same - The Keyword
The science of why remote meetings don't feel the same
As COVID-19 has pushed more teams to work remotely, many of us are turning to video calls. And if you’ve ever been on a video call and wondered why it doesn’t feel quite the same as an in-person conversation, we have something in common...If you’re face-to-face with someone, you might notice they’ve leaned forward and invite them to jump into the conversation. Or, you might pick up on a sidelong glance in the audience while you’re giving a presentation, and pause to address a colleague’s confusion or skepticism. Research shows that on video calls where social cues are harder to see, we take 25 percent fewer speaking turns. 

But video calls have something email doesn’t: eye contact. We feel more comfortable talking when our listeners’ eyes are visible because we can read their emotions and attitudes. This is especially important when we need more certainty—like when we meet a new team member or listen to a complex idea.

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PLEASE NOTE: RELEASE OF "APPROVED MINUTES" from two meeting in January 2021
> Jan 11 2021 Study Session
> Jan 25 2021 Study Session
> Jan 25 2021 Regular Meeting
File #: 21-0141   
Type: Minutes Status: Agenda Ready
In control: City Council
On agenda: 2/8/2021
Title: Approval of minutes of previous meetings as written.
Attachments:

1. January 11, 2021 Study,

2. January 25, 2021 Regular,

3. January 25, 2021 Study

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OVERVIEW SCAN:
Group Meeting GIF by South Park - Find & Share on GIPHY
Item 3: Liquor License Application 3
Item 4: Contracts 12 (Please note the dollar amounts and dollar limit increases)
Item 5: Resolutions 4
Item 6: Ordinances 2 Annexation Items
Item 7: Sub-Division Plat 1 for 'Destination at Gateway East - Phase 2' in District 6
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Meeting GIFs | Tenor
Meeting Name: City Council Agenda status: Tentative
Meeting date/time: 2/8/2021 5:45 PM Minutes status: Draft  
Meeting location: Virtual Platform
Published agenda: Agenda Agenda Published minutes: Not available  
Meeting video:  
Attachments:
  • 23 records
ile #Agenda #TypeTitleActionResultAction Details
21-0141 2MinutesApproval of minutes of previous meetings as written.  Not available
21-0132 3-aLiquor License ApplicationBoca Taqueria A restaurant that serves lunch and dinner is requesting a new Series 12 Restaurant License for Boca Taqueria 3 LLC, 10706 East Point Twenty-Two Boulevard, Suite 112; Clay Sherwood Eagar, agent. There is no existing license at this location. (District 6)  Not available
21-0133 3-bLiquor License ApplicationIntentional Foods A restaurant that serves lunch and dinner is requesting a new Series 12 Restaurant License for Intentional Foods LLC, 1837 West Guadalupe Road, Suite 103; Lisa Marie Heath, agent. There is no existing license at this location. (District 3)  Not available
21-0134 3-cLiquor License ApplicationOver Easy A restaurant that serves breakfast and lunch is requesting a new Series 12 Restaurant License for Dobson Café LLC, 1941 West Guadalupe Road, Suite 105; Jeffrey Craig Miller, agent. The existing license held by Ellas Cuisine LLC will revert to the State. (District 3)  Not available
21-0123 4-aContractDollar-Limit Increase to the Term Contract for Uniform Garments for Citywide Use as requested by the Business Services Department (Citywide) Through the uniform purchase program, the City purchases and issues garments to certain job classifications in various departments. The contract was extended for 6 months to facilitate a rebid. These additional funds are needed for purchases made during this extension period. The Business Services Department and Purchasing recommend increasing the dollar-limit with International Corporate Apparel, Inc. and Mission Linen Supply, by $200,000, from $270,000 to $470,000.  Not available
21-0122 4-bContractDollar-Limit Increase to the Term Contract for Cabling Services for Citywide Departments as requested by the Police Department (Citywide) This contract provides services to install hardware and cabling for data, video, and related equipment throughout the City. In part, the pandemic has required facility modifications to create social distancing, which led to greater use of this contract than was originally anticipated. The Police Department and Purchasing recommend authorizing the dollar-limit increase to the term contract using the State of Arizona cooperative contract with Corporate Technology Solutions, by $100,000, from $200,000 to $300,000 annually, with an annual increase allowance of up to 5%, or the adjusted Consumer Price Index.  Not available
21-0072 4-cContractThree-Year Term Contract with Two Years of Renewal Options for Fertilizer for the Parks, Recreation and Community Facilities Department (Citywide) This contract will provide fertilizer and related commodities for use in landscape areas at Mesa aquatic facilities, Mesa Cemetery, parks, retention basins, sports fields, and other City facilities. The Parks, Recreation and Community Facilities Department and Purchasing recommend awarding the contract to the lowest, responsive, and responsible bidders: JR Simplot Company, dba Simplot Turf and Horticulture; Nutrien AG Solutions; Rentokil North America, Inc., dba Target Specialty Products; and Wilbur Ellis, at $200,000 annually, with an annual increase allowance of up to 5%, or the adjusted Producer Price Index.  Not available
21-0079 4-dContractDollar-Limit Increase to the Term Contract for Automated Driveway Gate Operators and ADA Doors Preventative Maintenance and Repair Services for the Parks, Recreation and Community Facilities Department (Citywide) This contract provides preventative maintenance and repair services on automated driveway gates and ADA doors at various City of Mesa facilities. Quarterly maintenance is performed on the City's automated driveway entrance/exit gate operators and annual maintenance is performed on the motorized ADA accessible motorized doors. The Parks, Recreation and Community Facilities Department and Purchasing recommend increasing the dollar-limit with the DH Pace Company, by $50,000 for Year 1, from $122,000 to $172,000 annually, with an annual increase allowance of up to 5%, or the adjusted Consumer Price Index.  Not available
21-0127 4-eContractEighteen-Month Term Contract with Three One-Year Renewal Options for Referee Services for Adult and Youth Sports for the Parks, Recreation and Community Facilities Department (Citywide) This contract will provide referees and officials for various adult and youth sports programs. The Parks, Recreation and Community Facilities Department and Purchasing recommend awarding the contract using the City of Chandler and City of Tempe cooperative contracts with Spiker Sports, LLC, at $150,000 annually, with an annual increase allowance of up to 5%, or the adjusted Consumer Price Index.  Not available
21-0128 4-fContractTerm Contracts for HVAC Services and Equipment for the Parks, Recreation and Community Facilities Department (Citywide) This contract will provide heating, ventilation, and air conditioning equipment and services to support City facilities. The Parks, Recreation and Community Facilities Department and Purchasing recommend authorizing term contracts using the following cooperative contracts: 1GPA with HACI Service LLC and Sunstate Mechanical Services; and Omnia Partners with Daikin Applied Americas Inc, at $2,700,000 annually, with an annual increase allowance of up to 5%, or the adjusted Consumer Price Index.  Not available
21-0129 4-gContractPurchase of Parking Lot Lighting and Automation for the Communications Building and Fitch Park for the Parks, Recreation and Community Facilities Department and the Department of Innovation and Technology (District 4) This purchase will replace the lights in the parking lots for the Communications Building and the Fitch Park overflow parking on Athletics Way. It will also provide new security cameras, a Wi-Fi network, and outdoor air quality testing. Software will integrate all the data and controls of these systems with the existing HVAC and building automation system to allow control of the lights and allow indoor air circulation to react to outdoor air quality. In addition to the Smart City building automation, a pilot project in the Mesa Smart City program will use these systems to test parking space detection and the reach of the Wi-Fi into parks and neighborhoods. The Department of Innovation and Technology Data Services team will use the data connections to building automation to create dashboards showing air circulation and air quality reports in equipped buildings. The  Not available
21-0124 4-hContractThree-Year Term Contract with Two Years of Renewal Options for Ford Original Equipment Manufacturer Auto and Light-Duty Truck Parts for the Fleet Services Department (Citywide) This contract will provide a source of Ford original equipment manufacturer parts to support the City's fleet of sedans, light-duty trucks, and vans. The Fleet Services Department and Purchasing recommend awarding the contract to the lowest, responsive, and responsible bidder, Sanderson Ford, at $158,000 annually, with an annual increase allowance of up to 5%, or the adjusted Consumer Price Index.  Not available
21-0126 4-iContractPurchase of a Coiled Pipe Dispensing Trailer (Addition) for the Energy Resources Department as requested by the Fleet Services Department (Citywide) This purchase will provide a coiled pipe dispensing trailer for Energy Resources Gas Construction Crews. The Fleet Services and Energy Resources Departments, and Purchasing recommend authorizing the purchase with Scheele Engineering Corporation, dba SECOR, at $63,770.68.  Not available
21-0125 4-jContractPurchase of Three (3) Caterpillar 440 Backhoe Loaders (Replacements) for the Energy Resources Department as requested by the Fleet Services Department (Citywide) This purchase will provide three replacement Backhoe Loaders for the Energy Resources Department. The equipment being replaced has met established criteria and will be either traded, auctioned, sold, or deployed to special uses. The Fleet Services and Energy Resources Departments, and Purchasing recommend authorizing the purchase using the Omnia Partners/City of Tucson cooperative contract with Empire Southwest, LLC (a Mesa business), at $500,364. This purchase is funded by the Utility Renewal Extension and Replacement Fund.  Not available
21-0140 4-kContractThree-Year Term Contract with Two Years of Renewal Options for Ball Valves for the Materials and Supply Warehouse (for the Energy Resources Department) (Citywide) This contract will provide weld end ball valves stocked in the Materials and Supply Warehouse for use by Energy Resources in gas construction and maintenance projects. The Business Services Department and Purchasing recommend awarding the contract to the lowest, responsive, and responsible bidders, BROEN, Inc and Tri-Pacific Supply, Inc, at $100,000 annually, with an annual increase allowance of up to 5%, or the adjusted Consumer Price Index.  Not available
21-0144 4-lContractOne-Year Term Contract with Two Years of Renewal Options for Two Master Job Order Contracts for Fire Safety Construction Services (Citywide) Job Order Master Contracts for fire safety construction services include new construction, renovations and repairs, additions, and facility upgrades for City buildings and facilities. Staff recommends the selections of American Fire Equipment Sales & Service and Metro Fire Equipment, Inc. for fire safety construction services. These contracts allow for the issuance of multiple individual job orders with a not-to-exceed limit of $1,500,000 per job order, and a total contract value not-to-exceed $1,500,000 for each year of the contract, per contractor.  Not available
21-0110 5-aResolutionApproving and authorizing the City Manager to enter into a Grant Agreement with the Arizona Criminal Justice Commission to accept $65,458 in grant funds that will be used for training, equipment, and supplies for the Police Department’s Forensic Services Division. (Citywide)  Not available
21-0119 5-bResolutionApproving and authorizing the City Manager to enter into a grant agreement with the Arizona Department of Transportation (ADOT) Multimodal Planning Division, Aeronautics Group, for rehabilitation of Runway 4R/22L at Falcon Field Airport. The total estimated cost for this project is $995,700 to be funded by ADOT, at 90% ($896,130) and the City, at 10% ($99,570) from the Falcon Field Airport Enterprise Fund. (District 5)  Not available
21-0120 5-cResolutionApproving and authorizing the City Manager to execute a Project Agreement with the Maricopa Association of Governments for reimbursement under the Arterial Life Cycle Program for the Sossaman Road at Baseline Road intersection improvement project. (District 6)  Not available
21-0143 5-dResolutionAuthorizing the City Manager to suspend enforcement, temporarily modify, or approve alternatives to requirements or specifications in the Mesa City Code, related to outdoor seating and services for businesses and organizations, to mitigate the health and economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic during the Declaration of Emergency. This resolution is intended to assist businesses and other organizations that are operating in a limited capacity due to the pandemic, or otherwise effected by the pandemic. (Citywide)  Not available
21-0117 6-aOrdinanceANX20-00463 (District 6) Annexing a portion of South 222nd Street and East Williams Field Road right-of-way (6.74± acres).  Not available
21-0118 6-bOrdinanceANX20-00464 (District 6) Annexing a portion of South Meridian Road right-of-way (2.5± acres).  Not available
21-0121 7-aSubdivision Plat“Destination at Gateway East - Phase 2” (District 6) Within the 11400 to 11600 blocks of East Williams Field Road (south side) and within the 6000 to 6200 blocks of South Meridian Road (west side). Located south of Williams Field Road and west of Meridian Road (32.8± acres). Jen Arizona 47, LLC, developer; Raymond S Munoz III, EPS Group, surveyor.  Not available
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