Jul 29, 2026
In this episode of What's Going on With Shipping?, Sal Mercogliano explores the dangerous convergence of maritime conflicts across three critical global chokepoints: the Strait of Hormuz, the Bab el-Mandeb, and the Black Sea. By analyzing recent strikes—including Ukrainian attacks on Russian vessels in the Caspian Sea and Houthi threats in the Red Sea—Sal illustrates how these disparate wars are morphing into a singular, massive threat to the principle of "Freedom of the Seas." From skyrocketing insurance rates to the redirection of global energy flows, this update breaks down how the current "furball" in the Middle East and Eastern Europe is redefining maritime trade and impacting the global economy.The convergence of conflicts in the Strait of Hormuz, the Bab el-Mandeb, and the Black Sea represents a unified, systemic threat to the global principle of "Freedom of the Seas". Simultaneous geopolitical flashpoints across these vital maritime chokepoints are driving up shipping insurance, forcing costly detours around Africa, and severely straining international energy and trade flows. [
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The Overlapping Chokepoints and Conflicts
- Strait of Hormuz: Effectively restricted or closed due to the U.S.-Iran conflict and persistent attacks on commercial vessels, bottlenecking nearly one-fifth of global energy transit. [1, 2, 3]
- Bab el-Mandeb: Targeted by Iran-aligned Houthi blockades and strikes on tankers in the Red Sea, collapsing traffic and disrupting the vital route linking the Indian Ocean to the Suez Canal. [1, 2, 3, 4]
- Black Sea: Rife with naval drone and missile warfare tied to the Russia-Ukraine war, setting a precedent for contesting enclosed and semi-enclosed seas.
- Caspian Sea & Wider Arcs: Expanded projection of asymmetric strikes demonstrates how regional state and proxy conflicts directly spill over into secondary maritime theaters. [, 2]
Economic and Strategic Consequences
- Energy Shocks: Disruptions in Hormuz combined with threats at Bab el-Mandeb put nearly a quarter of global oil and gas supplies at immediate risk. [1]
- Inflation and Supply Chains: Shippers avoiding the Red Sea corridor must detour around the Cape of Good Hope, adding weeks to transit times and inflating freight costs. [1, 2]
- Insurance and Risk: War-risk insurance premiums have soared to multiples of their historical averages for vessels daring to cross these zones. [1]
- Legal Precedent: The erosion of transit passage rights codified under international frameworks like UNCLOS threatens a return to coercive, transactional control over natural straits by regional powers. [1, 2]
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