Sunday, April 26, 2026

"The Technological Republic: Hard Power, Soft Belief, and the Future of the West" | Book by Alex Karp and Nicholas W.Zamiska


Karp’s manifesto-via-tweet asserts primarily that we can achieve peace through war, and that billionaires brandishing “grand narratives” in the manner of Elon Musk should be in the country’s driver’s seat, sending ordinary citizens to the battlefield whether they like it or not. 
  • (Among the recommendations in Karp’s unhinged rantings is a proposal to revive the military draft—a singularly boneheaded idea at a moment when the country is waging an unprovoked, illegal, and massively unpopular war.) 
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GLOBAL IMPACT Sound + Fury: A threat. A backdown. Rinse. Repeat. Fatigue is setting in with Donald Trump's consistent inconsistency on Iran and the Strait of Hormuz | Wendy Wu SCMP

 A threat, a backdown, and a third US aircraft carrier
25 April 2026

 

Sound and fury

 

Wendy Wu

China Editor

Dear reader,

A threat. A backdown. Rinse. Repeat. Fatigue is setting in with Donald Trump's consistent inconsistency on Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. There is no sign of any near-term end to the impasse so the markets are pricing in the cost of a new normal and the public in China are tuning out the US president's early-morning missives. One year into his second term and Trump has become all noise and no signal.

We will suspend our newsletter next week because of the public holiday.

Read our exclusive on how a Hong Kong-flagged tanker made it through the Strait of Hormuz. 

 

 

The Big Picture

The next normal  
Trump extends the ceasefire with Iran, US forces are ordered to “kill” boats laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz and a third US aircraft carrier arrives in the Middle East.

 

Close to the wind
The Chinese navy makes rare transits off southwest Japan following a rare transit of a Japanese vessel through the Taiwan Strait.

 

 

Wins and Fails

Baby pandas Ping Ping and Fu Shuang will take up residence at Zoo Atlanta 

Trump ally Steve Daines plans to visit China before the US president’s trip

 

 

Big Numbers

0 – the number of H200 chips China has bought from Nvidia

3 – the number of weeks the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon has been extended

US$4 million – the bounty the US is offering for the arrest of a Chinese money launderer

57% – the share of surveyed Taiwanese who do not believe the US would send troops to defend the island

 

 

Direct Quote

“We need a new equilibrium in our relations with China. Both sides [have agreed] to take incremental or baby steps towards that.”

Jaime FlorCruz, Philippine ambassador to China, tells the South China Morning Post in an exclusive interview

All the best,

Wendy Wu

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MARICOPA COUNTY ARIZONA: Most Polluted Place to Live in the U.S....Phoenix #4 Most Polluted City

 
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LOOKING FOR THE FUTURE IN A CRYSTAL BALL Bonus editorial cartoon | Plant@ink.com

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The Outlier and the Discontinuous Future | balaji bal

THE PHYSICS OF INNOVATION: 
https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:1100/format:webp/1*fdTtvQmbcWUHLV61JPVOyw.png 
 
"One of the recurring mistakes in how we think about the future is that we assume it will emerge as an extension of the present. Consensus predictions are often built on linear extrapolation: if a technology has improved steadily for the last ten years, we assume it will continue improving at roughly the same rate for the next ten. 
  • If adoption has grown gradually, we model further gradual growth. 
  • If institutions, markets, and experts broadly agree on the likely direction of change, that agreement begins to feel like realism itself.
But technological evolution rarely moves in a straight line.
My view is that the future imagined by consensus is usually a projection of current trajectories, while the future that actually changes the world is often produced by outliers — individuals, teams, or ideas that do not merely continue the line, but break it. 
  • They create jump steps. 
  • They alter the slope. 
  • They introduce a discontinuity. 
  • And that discontinuity, more often than not, is what changes the course of technological history.
This is not a criticism of consensus. It is not evidence of collective blindness or institutional failure. It is simply the physics of innovation.
  
 
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"The Technological Republic: Hard Power, Soft Belief, and the Future of the West" | Book by Alex Karp and Nicholas W.Zamiska

Karp’s manifesto-via-tweet asserts primarily that we can achieve peace through war, and that billionaires brandishing “grand narratives” i...