- Economist Mark Zandi sees an increasing possibility that the US economy is nearing a recession.
- He highlighted the dangers of volatile oil prices and a weak US labor market.
- Zandi predicts that if oil remains high for too long, avoiding a recession will be difficult.
Mark Zandi has added oil prices to his list of concerns that the US could be barreling toward a downturn.
The Moody's chief economist previously told Business Insider that he saw the threat of economic recession for the US as increasingly likely. Now, he believes that the threat is rising, largely due to the convergence of two key economic forces.
A strong upward move in oil prices since the Iran war began has led other economists to voice concerns about the economy recently, and Zandi highlighted the weakening US labor market as a bearish force that could be exacerbated by the latest energy volatility.
"Recession is once again a serious threat," he wrote in an X thread this week.
"Even before the recent disconcerting events in the Middle East, our machine learning based leading economic indicator model put the probability of a recession starting in the next 12 months at an uncomfortably high 49%."
- Economist Mark Zandi sees an increasing possibility that the US economy is nearing a recession.
- He highlighted the dangers of volatile oil prices and a weak US labor market.
- Zandi predicts that if oil remains high for too long, avoiding a recession will be difficult.
Mark Zandi has added oil prices to his list of concerns that the US could be barreling toward a downturn.
The Moody's chief economist previously told Business Insider that he saw the threat of economic recession for the US as increasingly likely. Now, he believes that the threat is rising, largely due to the convergence of two key economic forces.
A strong upward move in oil prices since the Iran war began has led other economists to voice concerns about the economy recently, and Zandi highlighted the weakening US labor market as a bearish force that could be exacerbated by the latest energy volatility.
"Recession is once again a serious threat," he wrote in an X thread this week.
"Even before the recent disconcerting events
in the Middle East, our machine learning based leading economic
indicator model put the probability of a recession starting in the next
12 months at an uncomfortably high 49%."
"It isn't a stretch to expect the indicator to cross the key 50% threshold amid the Iranian conflict and the resulting surge in oil prices," he said.
"Oil prices are an important variable in the model, and with good reason: every recession since WWII, save the pandemic recession, has been preceded by a spike in oil prices."
POSSIBLE RELATED TO THE IRANIAN CONFLICT
