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Robin Brooks, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, argues that U.S. fiscal policy is out of control, with the nation issuing debt at a rate of approximately 7% of GDP annually despite a healthy economy.

He contends that the U.S. “exorbitant privilege”—the ability to borrow cheaply as a global safe haven—ended about a decade ago, as markets now demand a premium for holding U.S. debt due to unchecked deficits.

Brooks highlights three primary drivers for rising global long-term bond yields: the lingering effects of the global COVID debt binge, fiscal policy becoming unmoored with unusually wide non-crisis deficits, and elevated geopolitical risks increasing defense spending needs.

Although the U.S. currently benefits from being the “best of a bad bunch” relative to other major economies, Brooks warns that this dynamic masks a building risk premium and structural fragility in the Treasury market.

He emphasizes that while short-term rates may fall due to recession fears, long-term yields are rising sharply, signaling a shift from a “good” to a “bad equilibrium” in debt sustainability.

Brooks suggests that the current market stability is partly illusory, relying on a“best of a bad bunch” premium that could erode, potentially leading to a more severe debt crisis if fiscal discipline is not restored.

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NBC News • 5 hours ago

U.S. debt crosses $40 trillion threshold after doubling under Trump and Biden

Global U.S. creditors may already be growing wary of the U.S. government’s debt levels and the perceived lack of a push to address it.

Substack • May 8, 2026

A World of Debt - Robin J Brooks

The fiscal picture was bad before the war - it's even worse now

AP News • 4 hours ago

US national debt hits a record $40 trillion | AP News

The national debt has surpassed a record $40 trillion, highlighting the impact of defense costs, social programs, and interest on the deficit.

Brookings • July 29, 2016

Robin Brooks | Brookings

Robin Brooks is a senior fellow in Economic Studies at the Brookings Institution. His research focuses on global growth and inflation dynamics, capital flows to emerging and frontier markets, as well as Western sanctions policy and the G7 oil price cap on Russia.

Substack • 1 week ago

The Global Fiscal Train Wreck - Robin J Brooks

There's three big reasons why long-term government bond yields are rising globally

Council on Foreign Relations • 1 day ago

Global Debt Crises Foreshadow a Perilous Path for the United States | Council on Foreign Relations

Debt crises in Senegal, Indonesia, and the United Kingdom offer warnings and lessons for the U.S.’ fiscal challenges.

Substack • 1 month ago

Foreign Ownership of Government Debt - Robin J Brooks

You can use your central bank to cap yields, but you can't make foreigners buy your debt

NBC News • 4 hours ago

America’s borrowing costs are surging. Washington is shrugging.

The national debt now totals $39 trillion, or about 123% of the gross domestic product, as it’s getting costlier to pay down. Few politicians are eager to confront the issue.