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Political Instability and Economic Growth

Swagel, Phillip Lee

2 - 3 minutes

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Alberto Alesina, Sule Özler, Nouriel Roubini and Phillip Swagel

Journal of Economic Growth, 1996, vol. 1, issue 2, 189-211

Abstract: This paper investigates the relationship between political instability and per capita GDP growth in a sample of 113 countries for the period 1950 through 1982. We define political instability as the propensity of a government collapse, and we estimate a model in which such a measure of political instability and economic growth are jointly determined. The main result of this paper is that in countries and time periods with a high propensity of government collapse, growth is significantly lower than otherwise. We also discuss the effects of different types of government changes on growth. Coauthors are Sule Ozler, Nouriel Roubini, and Phillip Swagel. Copyright 1996 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

Date: 1996
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Working Paper: Political Instability and Economic Growth (1996)
Working Paper: Political Instability and Economic Growth (1992)
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January 5, 2023 Leave a Reply 

 

 

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www.project-syndicate.org

Too Soon for Global Optimism | by Kenneth Rogoff - Project Syndicate 

Kenneth Rogoff

6 - 8 minutes

---

"It is hard to reconcile the jubilant mood of many business leaders with the uncertainty caused by the war in Ukraine. While there are some positive signs of economic recovery, a sudden escalation could severely destabilize the global economy, cause a stock market crash, and accelerate deglobalization.

LONDON – Many of those who attended this year’s meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos were struck by the jubilant mood of the CEOs in attendance. It was hard to reconcile the optimism of these business leaders with the short-term and long-term economic uncertainty caused by the war in Ukraine.

To be sure, there are grounds for cautious optimism, like China’s 180-degree turn on its draconian zero-COVID strategy. Soon, the country could see a huge wave of “revenge spending,” driven by pent-up demand from consumers who have spent much of the past three years in lockdown and now have the equivalent of trillions of dollars in savings to spend. Many have pinned their hopes for a global recovery on this scenario, hoping that Chinese shoppers can boost growth and push oil prices back to $100 a barrel. But regardless of what happens in China, India continues to enjoy strong growth, aided by purchases of discounted Russian oil.

Europeans, for their part, seem thrilled by over-confident forecasts that the continent’s economy will not fall into recession in 2023 – or at least not a bad one. Even Italy has revised upward its growth estimates and is now expected to grow by 0.6% this year. Given that climate change is at the top of the European Union’s policy agenda, it is ironic that global warming seems to have saved Europe from the gas shortages and price spikes that many analysts had predicted.

Many Europeans might also argue that the United States is more at risk of a significant recession, given that the full effect of the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest-rate hikes will not be felt until later this year. They would be half right, as the US would need a healthy dose of luck to bring down inflation to the Fed’s 2% target without a major downturn. At the same time, European policymakers seem scared that the clean-energy subsidies included in the US Inflation Reduction Act will siphon off much-needed investment from the continent.

But whatever economic growth these countries experience is contingent on the war in Ukraine. With no endgame in sight, the war could severely destabilize the global economy, causing both short-term and long-term disruptions.

For example, suppose that Russian President Vladimir Putin becomes exhausted and desperate enough to use battlefield nuclear weapons. In that case, all bets are off, and a global stock market crash would be all but certain. But China’s likely response remains far less clear. If Chinese President Xi Jinping denounced Putin for using nuclear weapons but at the same time continued to buy Russian oil and commodities, the West would be forced to impose secondary sanctions on the countries enabling the Russian war machine – namely, India and China."

· There will be a recession due to coronavirus, says Nouriel Roubini · watch now.

 

Closing Bell: Day Trading, Money Manager and Investor News - CNBC

www.cnbc.com › closing-bell

3 hours ago · There will be a recession due to coronavirus, says Nouriel Roubini · watch now. video07:17. 'This is a blip': Greycroft Chairman on market sell-off.

CGTN: Graphic: China's average GDP growth from 2020 to 2022 ranks first among major economies

 

news.cgtn.com

IMF raises 2023 global growth forecast on China's reopening

CGTN,China Global Television Network

2 minutes

---

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Monday estimated that China's economy will grow by 5.2 percent in 2023, 0.8 percentage points higher than its October 2022 forecast.

"Growth is expected to pick up in China with the full reopening in 2023," the IMF stated in the newly released update to its World Economic Outlook report.

The IMF said global growth would still fall to 2.9 percent in 2023 from 3.4 percent last year, but that marked an improvement over its earlier prediction of 2.7-percent growth in 2023.

The IMF said it had raised its growth expectations due to "surprisingly resilient" demand in the U.S. and Europe, an easing of energy costs, and the reopening of China's economy after the removal of its strict COVID-19 restrictions.

IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said recession risks had subsided and central banks had made progress in controlling inflation, but more work was needed to curb prices, while the further escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict could lead to new disruptions.

He acknowledged that China's reopening would put some upward pressure on commodity prices, but "on balance, I think we view the reopening of China as a benefit to the global economy," noting it would help ease production bottlenecks that have worsened inflation and increase Chinese consumer demand.

(With input from Reuters; Cover image via CFP) 

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IMF lifts 2023 growth forecast on China reopening, strength in U.S., Europe | Reuters

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IMF Raises Global Growth Forecast On China Reopening - Nasdaq

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IMF raises 2023 global growth forecast on China's reopening - CGTN

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14 hours ago · The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Monday estimated that China's economy will grow by 5.2 percent in 2023, 0.8 percentage points higher ... 

China ranked first among the world's major economies in average annual economic growth from 2020 to 2022, contributing significantly to the global economic recovery.

Check out this infographic showing how the world's second-largest economy played a key role in driving the global economic recovery over the past three years.