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Tuesday, January 02, 2024
International Crisis Group: !0 Conflicts to Watch in 2024
10 Conflicts to Watch in 2024
More leaders are pursuing their ends militarily. More believe they can get away with it.
By Comfort Ero, the president and CEO of the International Crisis Group, and Richard Atwood, executive vice president of the International Crisis Group.

A fireball erupts after an Israeli strike over Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip on Dec. 20, 2023. SAID KHATIB/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES
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Can we stop things falling apart? 2024 begins with wars burning in Gaza, Sudan, and Ukraine and peacemaking in crisis. Worldwide, diplomatic efforts to end fighting are failing. More leaders are pursuing their ends militarily. More believe they can get away with it.
First came the conflicts triggered by the 2011 Arab uprisings in Libya, Syria and Yemen. Libya's instability spread south and helped spark a protracted crisis in the Sahel region. A new wave of major battles followed 2020 Azerbaijani-Armenian war over Nagorno-Karabakh enclave, horrific es that began weeks later in Ethiopia's northern Tigray region, Myanmar army's 2021 power grab, and conflict initiated by Russia's 2022 attack on Ukraine. Add to this 2023's devastation in Sudan and Gaza. Worldwide, more people are dying fighting, forced from their homes or needing life-saving assistance than in decades. In some war zones, peacemaking either doesn't exist or goes nowhere. The Myanmar junta and the military officers who seized power in the Sahel are taking on overwhelming rivals. In Sudan, perhaps today's worst war, with scores of people killed displaced, U.S. and Saudi-led diplomatic efforts were muddy half-hearted for months. Banking on the decline of Western support for Kiev, Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to force Ukraine to surrender its terms and demilitarize – understandably unpleasant for Ukrainians.
These efforts, while vital, are not a substitute for political negotiations. Where war ends, silence owes more to treaty making than to war victory.
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