Nick Silver/538 Prediction: The End of The Grand Old Party

Jul 18, 2016 at 6:43 AM

The End Of A Republican Party

Racial and cultural resentment have replaced the party’s small government ethos.

By Clare Malone

Analysis by Harry Enten.
Research by David Nield.

Some excerpts for readers of this blog:

Source: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-end-of-a-republican-party/?ex_cid=538twitter

 

Trump is a one-man crisis for the GOP. The party has been growing more conservative and less tolerant of deviations from doctrine over the past decades, so what does it mean that a man who has freely eschewed conservative orthodoxy on policy is now the Republicans’ standard-bearer?

The election has taken on a distinctly racial tinge, and in doing so, has clarified the motivations of voters somewhat. . . Alienating the country’s growing ranks of minorities is unwise on the sheer face of the numbers,

Somewhere in recent years, the GOP’s engagement with modern America and how to best project those values into a nation of 320 million people became dysfunctional

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Despite its demographic inertia, the Republican Party has not been without its moments of change. The tea party movement, which rose up from the grassroots in 2009, has significantly altered the way the GOP conducts its business. But the party’s “revolution” was led not by young men and women storming the barricades but by the gray-haired masses sitting down in their Adirondack Chairs and fighting to keep things as they have been

The prospect that the GOP leaders wouldn’t even be able to agree on why Trump — arguably the worst crisis the modern party has experienced — was even a crisis to begin with, seemed to say it all.
“There is no happy ending to this story,” she said.