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The American Dream Is Alive. In China.

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By JAVIER C. HERNÁNDEZ and QUOCTRUNG BUI NOV. 18, 2018

China is still much poorer over all than the United States. But the Chinese have taken a commanding lead in that most intangible but valuable of economic indicators: optimism.

In a country still haunted by the Cultural Revolution, where politics are tightly circumscribed by an authoritarian state, the Chinese are now among the most optimistic people in the world — much more so than Americans and Europeans, according to public opinion surveys.

What has changed?

Most of all, an economic expansion without precedent in modern history.

Eight hundred million people have risen out of poverty. That’s two and a half times the population of the United States.

1.2 billion people

1.0

Not in poverty

0.8

0.6

0.4

In poverty

0.2

2015

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

Source: The World Bank. People in poverty live at or below $1.90 a day.

Not only are incomes drastically rising within families, but sons are outearning their fathers. That means expectations are rising, too, especially among China’s growing middle class.

Life expectancy has also soared. Chinese men born in 2013 are expected to live more than seven years longer than those born in 1990; women are expected to live nearly 10 years longer.

“It feels like there are no limits to how far you can go,” said Wu Haifeng, 37, a financial analyst who was born to a family of corn farmers in northern China and now earns more than $78,000 a year. “It feels like China will always be strong.”

China used to make up much of the world’s poor. Now it makes up much of the world’s middle class.

Source: World Inequality Database

There are risks, of course, and no guarantees that China’s rise will continue indefinitely.

Yet for now, the economic arc seems ever upward.

Like the United States, China still has a yawning gap between the rich and the poor — and the poorest Chinese are far poorer, with nearly 500 million people, or about 40 percent of the population, living on less than $5.50 a day, according to the World Bank.

But by some measures Chinese society has about the same level of inequality as the United States. Here are the world’s major countries ordered by inequality and income mobility.

Finland

mobile

Denmark

20%

Norway

Germany

Canada

How much a child’s

income is determined

by their parents’

Sweden

Netherlands

Japan

40%

Spain

China

Italy

United

Kingdom

United

States

60%

Brazil

South Africa

India

80%

Egypt

More equal

100%

Level of inequality

(Gini coefficient)

Source: The World Bank, Fair Progress, Economic Mobility Across Generations Around the World; World Development Indicators

Today, the economic output per capita in China is $12,000, compared with $3,500 a decade ago. The number is far higher in the United States, $53,000.

Yet few analysts doubt where the bigger increases will come. Here’s how modern China’s per-capita G.D.P. growth compares so far:

United States

$50k per capita G.D.P.

$40k

Japan

South Korea

$30k

$20k

China

$10k

100

120

140

160

Number of years since each country reached China’s per-capita G.D.P. in 1993

In 2011 U.S. dollars. |Source: Maddison Project.

China’s progress is especially remarkable given how the government has used social engineering to restrict where people live and how many children they have. Loosening those constraints could accelerate income growth.

This is why many people now talk about “the Chinese Dream.”

Xu Liya, 49, once tilled wheat fields in Zhejiang, a rural province along China’s east coast. Her family ate meat only once a week, and each night she crammed into a bedroom with seven relatives.

Then she attended university on a scholarship and started a clothing store. Now she owns two cars and an apartment valued at more than $300,000. Her daughter attends college in Beijing.

“Poverty and corruption have hurt average people in China for too long,” she said. “While today’s society isn’t perfect, poor people have the resources to compete with rich people, too.”

Iris Zhao contributed research.

An earlier version of a chart on economic inequality used an older estimate of inequality in China. Based on the most recent World Bank data, economic inequality in China is roughly the same as in the United States, not slightly less.

China RulesHow China became a superpower

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The Internet
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Design: Matt Ruby, Rumsey Taylor, Quoctrung Bui Editing: Tess Felder, Eric Nagourney, David Schmidt Photo Editing: Craig Allen, Meghan Petersen, Mikko Takkunen Illustrations: Sergio Peçanha

Iris Zhao contributed research

29 Comments

W.A. Spitzer

Faywood, NM 11 minutes ago

And yet, wealthy Chinese routinely send their sons and daughters to college in the U.S., and purchase homes here so they will have a place to live in case things go wrong. Why is that?

Carol Gebert

Boston 16 minutes ago

China boomed because the USA has proscribed notions of minimum worth for a worker. Without a minimum wage, and without alarmist-driven energy policies, low-end manufacturing jobs would have stayed in the USA. Note that many high-end manufacturing plants did stay in North America, with most of the product and job displacement being at the menial-end. The displacement happened because American menial workers are too expensive. So the dilemma for an American 18yo is determining whether a skill can be found to match his/her labor cost.

chris

New York 18 minutes ago

The framing of a financial analyst making 78,000 dollars a year as "middle class" in China is preposterous, when the average citizen even in an urban area like Beijing (where incomes are far higher than in the countryside) is making less than a third of that on average. And how can economic mobility in China be discussed without mentioning Hukou?

Mickey

NY 20 minutes ago

To me, this speaks as much to our failure as much as it does to China's improvement. America's history and culture is built around notions of equality, democracy, limitless opportunity, choice, meritocracy, access to public education, and a culture that encourages and rewards contribution and innovation. All of these beliefs are built upon the foundation of an incredibly powerful, influential, and benevolent nation of wealth whose citizens are ostensibly the proprietors. However, we have spent generations electing public officials who dogmatically pursue neoliberal policies. Beholden to the corporate interests that paid for their campaigns, we have a legislative branch that rubber stamps whatever is put on their desks by their lobbyists backed up by a judicial system that endorses it, and a demagogue buffon executive who endorses the process. Now we are watching the privatization of the country unfold like a new Gilded Age. Americans have been promised wealth and opportunity by signing away their voice, authority, and representation. However, we keep seeing just the opposite happen-- an endlessly rising market, stagnant wages, dead-end jobs, and the suggestion of the end of Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid in the air. Is it any surprise that China is closing the gap?

Theni

Phoenix 32 minutes ago

This is by far very true but unlike the US and many other western countries, China does not have a social safety net. What ever safety net is there, has to be created by individuals and family support. If that structure breaks down for some reason, many older people are in danger of being "abandoned" in their retirement age.

Bob Krantz

SW Colorado 34 minutes ago

Hmm, the chances of two 18 year olds? In addition to broader social and economic contexts, which one has been pushed to work hard and succeed? Which one has primary focus on practical, and even banal (evil?) issues like career and income? Which one comes from a structure of strong social norms? Which one inhabits a new culture that celebrates not only "making a difference" but also "making a fortune"?

Jordan Schweon

New York 44 minutes ago

One cannot extrapolate to infinity. As with most developing economies, they are hitting a plateau on growth. Also, funded with an astounding amount of debt, much of which is questionable for repayment. Soft landing or hard landing is the question. As the expectations and income of a population rises, tradeoffs between work and leisure occur. Also, China is losing the game as low cost producer. China is most definitely here to stay, but the road ahead is much bumpier than the one over the past 30 years.

Jay

Texas 48 minutes ago

The world will be a better place when we all get off the conspicuous consumption kick that's driven by ego. Instead, we ought to be focused on the Kennedy adage that, "a rising tide lifts all boats."

The F.A.D.

Nu Yawk 48 minutes ago

Our government seems to be focusing on quashing the Chinese Dream instead of making the American Dream possible again. This is not the path to MAGA.

Everyman

newmexico 48 minutes ago

Thank you Wall Street and your political lapdogs. You have done very well with the trade rules you had the Dems, and Republicans pass. The pitchforks are coming.

The F.A.D.

Nu Yawk 49 minutes ago

The American Dream has been replaced by delusion. With near religious fervor and a refusal to accept basic arithmetic, Amerians cling to the belief that anyone driven to succeed, can. This leads to attitudes and policies which ever widen the gap between rich and poor, and make real mobility all but impossible. An example: Many argue that burger flippers don't deserve a living wage because part of their compensation is invaluable job experience which, if motivated, one could leverage to propel oneself up the ladder to the point of deserving and commanding a living wage for a day's work. But, what if every burger flipper earns a STEM field PhD in their spare time? Based on supply and demand, such PhDs will not be worth a living wage. Until we remember that honest work is valuable and that the billionaires at the top are held up by countless low earning underlings, optimism will dwindle and disappear.

Jay Wong

NYC 1 hour ago

This article focuses a lot on how the Chinese government, its policies and luck are reasons behind China's economic success. Perhaps the article should have also explored if perhaps there is anything unique about Chinese people and culture. China has is the longest continuous civilization in history. It has been greatest civilization for 17 of the past 20 centuries, and well on its way this century. You look at Chinese diaspora around the world, and they always do well (and often better than the local population), even though they usually immigrate dirt poor and face discrimination. Perhaps there is something more to China's success than a series of economic decisions by its government. Perhaps it has something to do with its culture and people.

AC

Pgh 1 hour ago

That first chart is super misleading b/c it doesn't show starting points. Of course US growth since 1980 is super slow compared to China, b/c china was starting from such a low point that high growth is easy to achieve. They should have compared how the poorest person in the US fares against the income distribution of china and what percentile they compare to.

Harper

China Town 1 hour ago

Chinese are ruthlessly devoted to the one and only pursuit in life - money. Chinese communist dictatorship learned a valuable lesson from the demise of Soviet Union. The military power alone is not enough, a country also has to dominate in the economic sphere. What were Americans doing in that time? They were basking in the arrogance of having defeated Soviet Union and their egos had no bounds. They were never thought China to be a serious contender. They have no principles beyond money. The next door Cuba was slapped with trade embargo while sly self-prostituting communist China was embraced with open hands by Wall street executives only looking to beat next quarters earnings. The results of these policies are everyone to see today.

Michael Anasakta

Canada 1 hour ago

A vital part of the American Dream is that one can not only seek economic success but do so within a system that allows freedom of thought. That freedom of thought is vital to human happiness and liberty. That is an impossible dream within China. It is also in China an improper dream. There is a key difference in the US concept of human rights and what that term means in China. In China, human rights do not include the right to freedom of thought. If there is doubt about this one has only to consider what the Chinese government is doing in the current large-scale brainwashing in their far-western Xinjiang region. The officially legalized so-called re-education camps for people accused of religious extremism, a little more than a month after denying such centers exist, are aimed at changing the religious thinking of the Uyghur people. I am shocked that the NY Times piece thinks that the American Dream is solely restricted to how many dollars one can collect before death.

Bob Krantz

SW Colorado 39 minutes ago

Yes, freedom of thought--and individual choice--is critical. But how much of the neo-progressive narrative now sounds like the paleo-conservative in restricting thought and speech in the US? On the other hand, how do we reconcile "free thinking" with free markets, as the later often puts practical and monetary constraints on the former (e.g. when a choice of vocation--or lack thereof-- leads to economic dead ends)?

Pecos Bill

NJ 1 hour ago

Donald Trump thinks he can beat them in a Trade War. Mistake number 1 he lives in a democracy and they don't.

FunkyIrishman

member of the resistance 1 hour ago

Sorry, but it is a false choice. No matter what the chances are for upwards mobility, I (I can only speak personally) am not going to give up (ever) any of my human rights. I will not work the whole day, or many days building up a life, knowing and fearing that it could be taken all away in an instant, and on a whim by someone else/or the state. (with absolutely no recourse) I demand to be free.

Harper

Chinatown 49 minutes ago

Well said! But the typical thought process of a Chinese might be - "I demand to be rich. Freedom? What is that. As long as I have freedom to make money, I am fine."

VK

São Paulo 1 hour ago

The West still has the bad habit of dividing modern China's history in pre and post Cultural Revolution. As if the Cultural Revolution was an abortion of History. But that's not the case: the reform and open-up of 1978 could only happen because the 1949 Revolution happened. It is not like Deng Xiaoping made a revolution inside the revolution, or a counter-revolution after the revolution. Mao took over China in the worse period. He did the hard job so his successors could reap the success. For the sake of comparison, just look at India, the other big country which allegedly followed the Western democratic textbook and "played by the rules": a chaotic mess. The difference between China and India was that China had a socialist revolution and India didn't -- even a relatively recent Global Times editorial admitted that.

Jordan Schweon

New York 29 minutes ago

Yes, forget about the millions killed and the Chinese decision to adapt a market economy.

Pepperman

Philadelphia 1 hour ago

I had just returned from Tokyo where I spent time with Chinese tourist from mainland China. I told him about the inability of the US to get huge infrastructure projects in the US, because of lawsuits, regulations, and costs. His reply was that sometimes Human Rights may not have the best interests of a country to function together. I don`t know if the writers of the story ever lived in China and witnessed the destruction of their enviorment or exploition of poor workers that exists in China. Dictatorshps do have productive results. China has moved its population out of poverty unmatched in wotld hustory.. Perhaps we can learn from their ability to produce wealth.

Michael Anasakta

Canada 1 hour ago

A vital part of the American Dream is that one can not only seek economic success but do so within a system that allows freedom of thought. That freedom of thought is vital to human happiness and liberty. That is an impossible dream within China. There is a key difference in the US concept of human rights and what that term means in China. In China, human rights do not include the right to freedom of thought. If there is doubt about this one has only to consider what the Chinese government is the current large-scale brainwashing in their far-western Xinjiang region. The officially legalized so-called re-education camps for people accused of religious extremism, a little more than a month after denying such centers exist, are aimed at changing the religious thinking of the Uyghur people. I am shocked that NY Times piece thinks that the American Dream is solely restricted to how many dollars can one collect before death.

W.A. Spitzer

Faywood, NM 1 hour ago

There is one question I would like someone to answer. In 30 years China has gone from one of the poorest countries in the world to one of the most prosperous. What is it that China learned? If they did not of a sudden learn something profound (what is it) then I cannot imagine that it can be sustained.

Mr. Adams

Texas 1 hour ago

If you start at the bottom, the only way forward is up. You're comparing an old, developed economy (US) with a developing economy (China) here. Of course the developing economy will have faster growth, but if we're talking about real, tangible quality of life, the US is better without a doubt. $53k vs $12k GDP is the key comparison here.

AS

New Jersey 1 hour ago

If most 18 year old Americans studied and worked as hard as most 18 year old Chinese the story would be very different. There's a reason we send millions of 6 figure jobs abroad every year.

Eilat

New York 1 hour ago

in the USA, we are more worried that more children be able to choose their gender or sex than on solving the world's problems. meanwhile, the youth of all stripes and classes are committing suicide through drug overdose. mass murder is the norm thanks to guns. young people cannot start families due to overwhelming student loan debt taken on just to be in the middle class. And immigrants, the only hope for a new and successful generation, the door is closing to them too. the problem is clear to see. let China rise; it;s time to pass the torch.

Rahul

Philadelphia 1 hour ago

Does anybody believe the numbers generated by the regime in China? They met their 6.5 % GDP growth target right on the nose for the nth straight quarter! yeah right. You can always meet your GDP target if your GDP can be met by constructing another billion dollars of unused infrastructure. You can generate any kind of scenario when you control the media and you control the statistics. Is there any accounting for the millions who died of starvation in the great leap forward or those that died or were separated from their children during the cultural revolution. Does NYT spare any though to the Tibetan Buddhists being sent to concentration camps or the Xinjiang Muslim children being separated from their parents to be reeducated? This article glosses over the demographic disaster the one child policy has set up for China which will be more severe than anything mankind has ever faced. You can create any scenario by massaging the data and creating stories but the truth seeps out every now and then despite all the controls and when it does, it is not pretty. Any data series that shows any kind of trouble or a declining trend is promptly discontinued by the authorities. Foreign media and analysts are always fooled by this trick where all data only trend up. All this does is store all the problems for the future when they will be revealed all at once because they have become too big to hide. China will end like all the totalitarian regimes that came before it.

s.khan

Providence, RI 29 minutes ago

Even GDP in USA is a phony number. It costs 10 times for health care than other countries particulalry China. As the report says life span of Chinses has improved significantly without spending fortune. Inflated military spending is another phony addition to GDP. No wonder American GDP looks high. What is an average American getting out of high health care and military spending:nothing. It is not reasonable to comapre income without looking at the cost of living. Everything costs more in USA than China, India,etc. Chinese $12,000 per capita income is like $30,000. Keep in mind the time frame: China started the development in 1980 while USA started in 1880.

MesaZona > Table of Contents : Here's The Menu. Enjoy

19 November 2018

Cheers For The Holidays: The World Inequality Data Base

The American Dream Is Alive. In China.

29 Comments

W.A. Spitzer

Carol Gebert

chris

Mickey

Theni

Bob Krantz

Jordan Schweon

Jay

The F.A.D.

Everyman

The F.A.D.

Jay Wong

AC

Harper

Michael Anasakta

Bob Krantz

Pecos Bill

FunkyIrishman

Harper

VK

Jordan Schweon

Pepperman

Michael Anasakta

W.A. Spitzer

Mr. Adams

AS

Eilat

Rahul

s.khan

29 Comments

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