Forecast Discussion
" . . .It will be another tricky weather and air quality forecast today for Phoenix. High pressure is now centered over the Arkansas/Oklahoma state line, which is continuing the east/southeast flow over Arizona. At the same time, the disturbance we have been tracking is now over southern Arizona and Northern Mexico. While we will likely see some isolated thunderstorms in the Valley this afternoon into the evening hours, with chances continuing overnight into tomorrow, not expecting widespread activity in the Valley. With that said, any storms that do form will be capable of producing gusty winds and heavy rain.
Later this weekend into the first part of next week, expect conditions to dry out as high pressure builds back overhead. This pattern shift will result in mainly clear skies, light winds, meager to no storm chances in the Valley, and warmer temperatures Sunday through at least Tuesday.
As for air quality, ozone will once again be the primary pollutant of concern. With added cloud cover from time-to-time, along with the potential for some storm activity, expecting ozone levels to be in the upper Moderate AQI category today. As skies clear and storm chances dwindle later Saturday into the first part of next week, forecasting ozone to quickly build up in the Valley.
As a result, an Ozone High Pollution Advisory is in effect for Saturday and Sunday, with an Ozone High Pollution Watch in effect for Monday and Tuesday.
Have a great weekend!
- M. Pace
ADEQ Meteorologist
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The Arizona Department of Environmental Quality (ADEQ) is issuing a High Pollution Advisory (HPA) for ozone effective July 31 and Aug. 1, 2021, in the Phoenix area. ADEQ recommends that people limit outdoor activity while the HPA is in effect, especially children and adults with respiratory problems. Ground-level ozone forms when two types of pollutants — volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) — react in sunlight. These pollutants come primarily from automobiles, but also from other sources, including industries, power plants and products, such as solvents and paints. Generally, the highest levels of ozone occur in the afternoon. Check the Hourly Air Quality Forecast on the Air Arizona Mobile App Health Impacts People most vulnerable to the impacts of air pollution include children, older adults, adults exercising outdoors, people with heart or lung disease, and those suffering from asthma and bronchitis. Exposure can increase the number and severity of asthma attacks, cause or aggravate bronchitis or other lung disease, and reduce the body’s ability to fight infection. Symptoms may include itchy eyes, nose and throat, wheezing, coughing, shortness of breath, chest pain and upper respiratory issues BACKGROUND High Pollution Advisory (HPA) | Notifies the public that the level of an air pollutant is forecast to exceed the federal health standard. High Pollution Watch (HPW) | Notifies the public when there is potential for a pollutant to exceed the federal health standard. Ozone Fact Sheet | View >
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