This Week's Highlights: Russia in Review, June 24-30, 2022

Russia Matters

Russia in Review, June 24-30, 2022

This Week's Highlights

• The death toll has climbed to 20 people in a Russian strike on a mall in the city of Kremenchuk in central Ukraine, according to a Ukrainian presidential adviser. Leaders of the Group of Seven advanced economies condemned Russia for the "abominable" attack, calling it a "war crime.” Russia’s defense ministry has admitted responsibility for the missile strike but denied reports of civilian casualties, saying it had hit a military target, according to FT. Reporters from Meduza and The Telegraph have pointed to holes in Moscow’s version of events.
• White House officials are losing confidence that Ukraine will ever be able to take back all of the land it has lost to Russia over the past four months of war, U.S. officials told CNN. Advisers to Biden have begun debating internally how and whether Zelensky should shift his definition of a Ukrainian "victory"—adjusting for the possibility that his country has shrunk irreversibly. Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, said the U.S. and its allies would attempt to help Ukraine’s forces gain as much leverage in the war as possible before winter.
• Asked on June 29 whether “the goals of the special operation [had] changed,” Putin said:  “Nothing has changed, of course… I have formulated the overall goal, which is to liberate Donbas, protect its people and create conditions that will guarantee the security of Russia itself. That is all. We are working calmly and steadily… We are not speaking about any deadlines.”

• G7 leaders failed to agree on new sanctions against Russia at their summit due to diverging opinions but plan to discuss new measures—ranging from a price cap on Russian oil purchases to a gold embargo, according to the Wall Street Journal.
• NATO has declared Russia the "most significant and direct threat” to its members’ peace and security in its new strategic concept adopted at a summit in Madrid this week. The concept also defines China as “a challenge” to the alliance’s security. NATO leaders also extended formal membership invitations to Finland and Sweden and announced a sevenfold increase in forces on high alert, while Biden also pledged to raise the number of U.S. destroyers in Spain from four to six, send two additional F-35 squadrons to Britain and establish a 5th Army headquarters in Poland. The announcements amount to an addition of about 1,500 new, permanent or semipermanent U.S. forces.

• "We don't have problems with Sweden and Finland like we do with Ukraine… They can join whatever they want," Putin said in reference to the outcome of the NATO summit. He warned, however, that he would respond in kind if the two countries allowed NATO troops and military infrastructure onto their territory. Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of Putin’s Russian Security Council, threatened that Russia will station ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons on its border if the two Nordic countries are allowed to join NATO.
• Russia will deliver missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads to Belarus in the coming months, Putin said on June 25 as he received Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko. Six Russian Tu-22M3 strike bombers took off from Russia’s Kaluga region on the night of June 25, before entering Belarusian airspace to fire 12 cruise missiles at targets in Ukraine, according to the Ukrainian military intelligence agency.
• There is “no potential for regime change” in Russia, and there are no economic grounds for this, Russian billionaire Oleg Deripaska said. “The opposition preferred beautiful European views … and retreated from the life of the country… Waiting for Mikhail Maratovich Fridman or [Pyotr] Aven or [Mikhail] Khodorkovsky to take up arms and break through to Bryansk in tanks—that is unlikely [to happen].”

 

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• The IAEA has voiced its mounting concern about staff at the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant in Ukraine as reports of physical abuse and interrogations of workers there emerge, the agency said, adding that it must send a mission to the plant. (Bellona, 06.27.22)
• The State Nuclear Regulatory Inspectorate of Ukraine has terminated international agreements concerning cooperation between the country and Russia in the field of nuclear safety. (WNN, 06.27.22)
  • Kiev’s decision to terminate agreements with Russia in the sphere of nuclear security proves that Ukraine is on a destructive path to sever relations with Moscow, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said. (TASS, 06.29.22)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• A top South Korean official said June 27 that North Korea is increasingly targeting the South with its nuclear arms program, and urged China and Russia to persuade the North not to conduct a widely expected nuclear test. (AP, 06.27.22)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• Indirect talks between U.S. and Iranian officials in Doha, Qatar, aimed at salvaging the Iran nuclear deal ended without any progress, a senior administration official said June 29. The talks were brokered by the European Union, with EU envoys bouncing between negotiating teams from Washington and Tehran as they sought a breakthrough that would kickstart broader talks. (CNN, 06.29.22, RFE/RL, 06.30.22)
  • Iran's Foreign Ministry said afterward that it is still possible to overcome differences and reach an agreement to salvage the JCPOA. (RFE/RL, 06.30.22)

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• The death toll has climbed to 20 people in a Russian strike in the central Ukrainian region of Poltava, a Ukrainian presidential adviser said. Authorities say up to 1,000 people were inside the Amstor mall on June 25 when two missiles struck the shopping center in the city of Kremenchuk. (NPR, 06.28.22)
  • Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky called on the United Nations to visit the site of the strike. (WSJ, 06.29.22)
  • Leaders of the Group of Seven advanced economies condemned Russia for an "abominable" attack on the shopping center, calling it a "war crime," while vowing Putin will "be held to account" for Moscow's actions. (RFE/RL, 06.28.22)
  • Russia’s defense ministry has admitted responsibility for the missile strike but denied reports of civilian casualties, saying it had hit a military target. Reporters from Meduza and The Telegraph have identified several holes in Moscow’s version of events. (FT, 06.28.22, RM, 06.29.22)
• Russian missile attacks on Kyiv and the central city of Cherkasy killed at least two people and injured 11 others, including a 7-year-old girl. (RFE/RL, 06.27.22)
• A missile strike killed at least three people in a residential building in the southern Ukrainian city of Mykolayiv on June 29 in an attack that Russia said was meant to destroy a training base for foreign fighters. About half of Mykolaiv’s prewar population of 480,000 has fled. (RFE/RL, 06.29.22, NYT, 06.25.22)
• Russian officials occupying the Ukrainian city of Kherson have detained Mayor Ihor Kolykhayev after he refused to work with them. The Moscow-installed military administration ruling the area around Kherson said it is preparing to hold a referendum on joining Russia. Kyiv's forces now are less than 10 miles away from the city. (WSJ, 06.26.22, RFE/RL, 06.29.22, RFE/RL, 06.28.22).
• Leaders of the Group of Seven have pledged to hold an international conference to raise funds for the country's postwar reconstruction. (RFE/RL, 06.28.22)
• Ukraine's Defense Ministry has announced a prisoner exchange involving 144 Ukrainian soldiers, including scores of defenders of the Azovstal steelworks in the southern port city of Mariupol. (RFE/RL, 06.29.22)
• Kyiv says about 2,000 orphans have been forcibly taken to Russia following its Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 06.30.22)
• The European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) has issued interim measures instructing Russia to hold off on carrying out any capital punishment against two Britons who surrendered after they fought alongside Ukrainian troops in eastern Ukraine. (RFE/RL,  06.30.22)
• The United Nations is coordinating talks among Ukraine, Russia and Turkey in the hopes of hammering out security guarantees that would allow Ukraine to export its grain and help ease a global food crisis that is being exacerbated by the war. (NYT, 06.30.22)
  • A deal to end Russia’s blockade of Ukrainian seaports and grain exports remains distant because Moscow is using talks to push its war aims and ambition to dominate the Black Sea, Kyiv’s top negotiator Taras Kachka said. (FT, 06.30.22)
  • Satellite images and GPS data indicate that Russia could be exporting grain smuggled out of occupied Ukrainian territory, investigations by the BBC and the Financial Times have revealed. (MT, 06.29.22)
  • A merchant ship with 7,000 tons of grain has left the Russian-occupied Ukrainian city of Berdyansk, the first such shipment from the port since Moscow launched its invasion of Ukraine. Yevgeny Balitsky, head of the Moscow-appointed administration in the Zaporizhzhya region, said on Telegram on June 30 that the ship is headed for "friendly countries." (RFE/RL, 06.30.22)
  • "We have not put any restrictions on the export of fertilizers, nor on the export of food products," Putin claimed as he welcomed Indonesian leader Joko Widodo, whose country holds the G20 presidency, to the Kremlin. (MT/AFP, 06.30.22)
• The Russian military most likely targeted a theater in Mariupol in mid-March where “hundreds” of people were sheltering despite knowing that there were civilians there, in what would be a war crime, Amnesty International said in a report released on June 30. (NYT, 06.30.22)

Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine’s commander-in-chief, pleaded for more powerful weaponry in a June 22 phone call with his U.S. counterpart. (FT, 06.25.22)
• President Joe Biden said June 30 the U.S. will announce $800 million in additional military aid to Ukraine in the next few days. The assistance will include new advanced air defense systems, more artillery, counter-battery radars and more ammunition, Biden said after a NATO summit in Madrid. (USA Today, 06.30.22)
• Ukraine is running out of shells for the majority of its artillery in part because of a clandestine Russian campaign of bullying and sabotage, including bombings of key munitions depots across Eastern Europe, according to Ukrainian government officials and military analysts. (WP, 06.24.22)
• The Ukrainian military intelligence agency said that six Russian Tu-22M3 strike bombers took off from Russia’s Kaluga region on the night of June 25, before entering Belarusian airspace to fire 12 cruise missiles at targets in the Kyiv, Chernihiv and Sumy regions.(NYT, 06.25.22)
• There is a stealthy network of commandos and spies rushing to provide weapons, intelligence and training to the Ukrainians, according to U.S. and European officials. A few dozen commandos from other NATO countries, including Britain, France, Canada and Lithuania, have been working inside Ukraine. (NYT, 06.25.22)
• Ukrainian authorities said they have uncovered a Russian spy network involving Ukrainian lawmaker Andriy Derkach. (RFE/RL, 06.25.22)
• The mayor of Severodonetsk said on June 25 the strategic Ukrainian city is now under full Russian control. (RFE/RL, 06.25.22)
  • Ukraine’s retreat from Severodonetsk after weeks of fighting against Russian forces in the eastern city was a “tactical” move to avoid a repeat of the fateful Azovstal siege in Mariupol, according to the country’s military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov. (FT, 06.27.22)
• Russia is scrambling to find fighters for its war in Ukraine and recruiting heavily from its North Caucasus region to form new units along ethnic lines who are then deployed with minimal training. (RFE/RL, 06.26.22)
• The U.S. plans to announce as soon as this week that it has purchased for Ukraine an advanced, medium- to long-range surface-to-air missile defense system, known as NASAMS, that can hit targets more than 160 kilometers away. (RFE/RL, 06.27.22)
• Col.-Gen. Gennady Zhidko, current director of the Russian Defense Ministry’s Military-Political Directorate, is likely to be in overall command of Russian forces in Ukraine. The Conflict Intelligence Team previously reported that Zhidko had replaced Alexander Dvornikov, commander of the Southern Military District, as overall commander in Ukraine. (ISW, 06.26.22)
• Ukrainian authorities arrested a suspected Russian agent in a treason case, accusing him of directing intelligence to Russia that led to a deadly strike on a military facility near Lviv. (NYT, 06.29.22)
• White House officials are losing confidence that Ukraine will ever be able to take back all of the land it has lost to Russia over the past four months of war, U.S. officials told CNN. Advisers to President Joe Biden have begun debating internally how and whether Zelensky should shift his definition of a Ukrainian "victory"—adjusting for the possibility that his country has shrunk irreversibly. A congressional aide familiar with the deliberations told CNN that a smaller Ukrainian state is not inevitable. (CNN, 06.28.22)
• Zelensky has told a NATO summit that his country needs more advanced heavy weapons. He also pressed the allies for more financial aid, saying that Ukraine needs $5 billion monthly for its defense and protection against Russia's aggression. (RFE/RL, 06.29.22)
• Biden said on June 30 he did not know how long the war would last. The Ukrainians “continue to resist the Russian aggression, and so I don’t know how it’s going to end,” he said, but vowed: “It will not end with a Russian defeat of Ukraine in Ukraine.” (NYT, 06.30.22)
• Britain will give Ukraine an additional $1.2 billion in military support for its war against Russia, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on June 30, nearly doubling the British commitment as Ukraine struggles to finance the mounting costs of the fighting. (NYT, 06.30.22)
• Asked whether “the goals of the special operation [had] changed,” Putin said: “Nothing has changed, of course... I have formulated the overall goal, which is to liberate Donbas, protect its people and create conditions that will guarantee the security of Russia itself. That is all. We are working calmly and steadily... We are not speaking about any deadlines.” (Kremlin.ru, 06.29.22)
  • The Russian leader’s remarks underscored a change in Mr. Putin. Early in the war, he appeared tense, angry and even disoriented. Now, a new Putin has emerged, one very much resembling his prewar image: relaxed, patient and self-confident. (NYT, 06.30.22)
• Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, told reporters on the sidelines of the G7 meetings that allies would attempt to help Ukraine’s outgunned forces gain as much leverage in the war as possible before winter, because “a grinding conflict is not in the interest of the Ukrainian people, for obvious reasons.” (NYT, 06.30.22)
• Ukraine says its forces have pushed Russian troops off Snake Island in the Black Sea, with the success partially attributed to new weapons supplies by the West. Russia insisted, however, that its forces departed as a "gesture of goodwill.” (RFE/RL, 06.30.22, WP, 06.30.22)

Punitive measures related to Ukraine and their impact globally:

• Hundreds of Russians are estimated to have relocated to Latin America in recent months, as a combination of relaxed entry rules and an ambivalence toward Western sanctions makes it an increasingly attractive destination. (FT, 06.25.22)

• Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda has stressed that his Baltic country "must" and "will" enforce EU sanctions on Russian goods amid harsh rhetoric from Moscow over Vilnius's recent restrictions affecting Kaliningrad. (RFE/RL, 06.26.22)
  • The European Union is trying to defuse tensions with Moscow after Lithuania invoked Western sanctions to block some Russian goods from entering Kaliningrad. Some EU capitals, including Germany, are concerned that Lithuania's enforcement of the sanctions could trigger a dangerous escalation from the Kremlin. (WSJ, 06.30.22)
• Rinat Akhmetov, Ukraine’s richest oligarch, has filed a lawsuit against Russia in the European Court of Human Rights, citing alleged violations of property rights and seizure of assets connected to its invasion. (FT, 06.27.22)
• Russia says it is placing sanctions on 43 Canadians, including federal and regional officials, members of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Liberal party and public figures, in retaliation for similar steps taken by Ottawa. (RFE/RL, 06.27.22)
• President Biden and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in a joint statement that the United States and its allies in Europe must continue to find ways to eliminate their reliance on other forms of Russian energy. (NYT, 06.27.22)

•  The United States on June 28 imposed sanctions on 70 entities, including Russian defense firm Rostec, and 29 individuals in a move that it said aimed to "strike at the heart of Russia’s ability to develop and deploy weapons." (RFE/RL, 06.28.22)
• Moody's ratings agency has confirmed that Russia defaulted on foreign debt for the first time in a century after bondholders did not receive $100 million in interest payments. “Missed coupon payment constitutes a default,” Moody’s said in a statement late June 27. (MT/AFP, 06.28.22)
• The Russian Foreign Ministry designated any activity of the Swedish International Development Agency and the Swedish Institute to be undesirable on the territory of Russia, demanding its immediate cessation. (Meduza, 06.28.22)
• The end of June saw three Western companies announce the sale of their business in Russia and their exit from the Russian market. These are Whirlpool Corporation, Michelin and Kone. (Meduza, 06.28.22)
•  U.S. authorities have stopped a Greek-owned ship traveling from Russia to Louisiana with a cargo of fuel products. (WSJ, 06.28.22)
• The G7 ended its summit with an agreement to discuss a batch of new sanctions against Russia, but divergences among member states’ leaders prevented them from agreeing on concrete new sanctions. The group only agreed to start work on measures ranging from a price cap on Russian oil purchases to a gold embargo. With most immediately available options for punishing Russia largely exhausted, only more complicated and more controversial alternatives remain on the table. (WSJ, 06.28.22)
  • EU leaders said a U.S. push for a price cap on Russian oil would need widespread buy-in around the world to be effective as they prepared for debate on the topic. (FT, 06.25.22)
    • Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said June 30 that G7 plans to cap the price of Russian oil would lead to a shortfall on world markets and soaring prices for European consumers. (MT/AFP, 06.30.22)
  • The G7 also said it would impose targeted sanctions on Russians responsible for war crimes committed in Ukraine and those who were exacerbating “global food insecurity” by “stealing and exporting Ukrainian grain.” (FT, 06.27.22)
  • The G7 also laid out plans to invest hundreds of billions of dollars for infrastructure projects in developing countries in an attempt to challenge autocracies and address a similar program by China. (WSJ, 06.26.22)
  • Zelensky has urged the G7 to end Russia's invasion of his country by the end of the year. Zelensky also asked for help to export grain from Ukraine and for reconstruction aid. (RFE/RL, 06.27.22)
• The United Kingdom has announced new sanctions aimed at Russian President Vladimir Putin's inner circle, including his close ally Vladimir Potanin. (RFE/RL, 06.29.22)
• A new report by Schemes documents a wide range of evidence showing that a substantial number of the Russian soldiers and security-force members who have been deployed to Ukraine have received their regular military pay and combat bonuses via Gazprombank. (RFE/RL, 06.29.22)
• Bulgaria has ordered 70 Russian diplomatic staff out of the country, claiming that they have been working against Sofia's interests. (RFE/RL, 06.29.22)
• A court in Moscow has fined the holiday rental company Airbnb, video streaming service Twitch, United Parcel Shipping (UPS) and Pinterest for failing to localize the storage of the personal data of their users. (RFE/RL, 06.29.22)
• The Biden administration has placed five Chinese companies on an export blacklist for violating sanctions by allegedly providing support to Russia’s military and defense companies before and during the invasion of Ukraine: Connec Electronic, King Pai Technology, Sinno Electronics, Winninc Electronic and World Jetta (HK) Logistics. The June 28 blacklisting marks the first time U.S. officials have taken action against Chinese companies for allegedly supporting Russia in the war. (FT, 06.29.22, WSJ, 06.29.22)
• Hotels in Crimea have seen guest numbers fall by more than a third compared to last year amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. (MT, 06.29.22)
• Russia manufactured 3,700 cars in May, 97% fewer than the same month last year, the country’s statistics agency Rosstat said late June 29. Only two out of 20 car plants remain in Russia after major automakers halted production and stopped sales over the country’s invasion of Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 06.30.22)
• Russia’s state energy giant Gazprom and top lender Sberbank decided June 30 not to pay their investors dividends for 2021. Gazprom lost a quarter of its market value on June 30 as a result. (MT/AFP, 06.30.22, FT, 06.30.22)
• More than a third of Russian movie theaters were forced to temporarily close in June as visitor numbers dwindled amid the disappearance of Hollywood blockbusters. (MT/AFP, 06.30.22)
• Britain’s foreign secretary Liz Truss has rejected claims that the government acted too slowly in cracking down on Russian money laundering, following the release of a report from the foreign affairs committee that suggested “morally bankrupt billionaires [are] using the U.K. as a safe-deposit box.” (FT, 06.30.22)
• Bulgaria’s outgoing prime minister Kiril Petkov called on Russia to withdraw a diplomatic ultimatum sent after Sofia expelled 70 Russian diplomatic staff, a move that would reduce Moscow’s diplomatic footprint in Bulgaria by more than half. The Russian Embassy told Sofia to reverse the expulsions decision by midday July 1 or the embassy would ask Moscow to consider ending Russia’s physical diplomatic presence in Bulgaria altogether. (Reuters. 06.30.22)
• Germany took control of three Gazprom liquefied natural gas tankers "for an indefinite period of time” on June 29, the Telegraph reported, as Europe faces an energy crisis. (Insider, 06.30.22)
• Germany's vice chancellor Robert Habeck said June 30 he suspects that Russia may not resume natural gas deliveries to Europe through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline after planned maintenance work in July. (AP, 06.30.22) 
• The U.S. Treasury on June 30 notified Delaware-based Heritage Trust that it is blocking $1 billion in assets for its connection to sanctioned Russian oligarch Suleiman Kerimov. (CNN, 06.30.22)

Ukraine-related negotiations:

• An overwhelming share of Ukrainians—some 89%—say it would be unacceptable to reach a peace deal with Moscow by ceding Ukrainian territory, a new Wall Street Journal-NORC poll finds. The survey, conducted in conjunction with a Ukrainian polling firm, also finds that 78% of Ukrainians approve of President Zelensky's response to the Russian invasion, with only 7% saying he has handled the war poorly. (WSJ, 06.29.22)
• The final call between the presidents of France and Russia just four days before Putin issued the order for Moscow to invade Ukraine was filled with tension. The call took place on the morning of Feb. 20 as the French leader made what turned out to be a fruitless attempt to stop Russia from going to war. The call ended with Macron suggesting to Putin a summit with Biden. Putin did not object but also did not appear interested in fixing a date. (SCMP/AFP, 06.25.22)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• NATO has declared Russia the "most significant and direct threat” to its members’ peace and security in its new strategic concept. The Western military alliance made the declaration in a statement as its leaders met in Madrid on June 29 to confront what NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg called the biggest security crisis since World War II. (RFE/RL, 06.29.22)
  • NATO has extended formal membership invitations to Finland and Sweden. (NYT, 06.29.22)
  • NATO is to increase its forces on high alert by more than sevenfold to 300,000 in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The alliance would “significantly reinforce” its defenses in eastern Europe, Stoltenberg said, pledging that Russia would not be able to capture the Estonian capital Tallinn. (FT, 06.27.22)
  • Speaking as he was greeted by Stoltenberg at a summit of the alliance on June 29, Biden said the United States would raise the number of destroyers it has in Spain from four to six. He also said Washington will send two additional F-35 squadrons to Britain and establish a 5th Army headquarters in Poland. (RFE/RL, 06.29.22)
    • The U.S. will work with the Spanish government to add the two new destroyers, both to the port in Rota, totaling about 600 additional crew, officials said. (WSJ, 06.30.22)
  • The June 29 announcements by Washington amount to an addition of about 1,500 new, permanent or semipermanent forces, U.S. military officials said. That includes about 280 military personnel to support the new permanent Army headquarters in Poland, 625 troops for an air-defense artillery brigade headquarters, an air-defense battalion and a combat sustainment support battalion headquarters in Germany, and about 65 personnel for a short-range air-defense battery in Italy. (WSJ, 06.30.22)
  • "We are going to stick with Ukraine, and all of the alliance are going to stick with Ukraine, as long as it takes to make sure they are not defeated by Russia," Biden told a news conference at the end of the NATO summit on June 30. (RFE/RL, 06.30.22)
    • For all the steps Biden and his allies took at the G7 and NATO summit to counter Russian aggression, the leaders failed to describe the endgame in the long war of attrition. Biden is already feeling political heat from his swift response to the Ukraine invasion. (NYT, 06.30.22)
    • "We don't have problems with Sweden and Finland like we do with Ukraine… They can join whatever they want," Putin said. However, Putin also warned that he would respond in kind if the two countries allowed NATO troops and military infrastructure onto their territory. (MT/AFP, 06.30.22, AP, 06.30.22)
  • NATO leaders have discussed efforts by Russia and China to use “coercion” in the Middle East and north Africa, and ways to help the alliance’s partners in the region respond to it. NATO’s new strategic concept—which defines its strategy for the next decade—defines China as “a challenge” to the alliance’s security. (FT, 06.30.22)
• Gen. Patrick Sanders, alluding to Western Europe’s failure to confront Nazi Germany, said that Britain must not allow Russia’s military action to expand into NATO territory. “This is our 1937 moment,” Sanders said. (NYT, 06.28.22)
• NATO’s secretary-general has pledged its militaries will reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050. (FT, 06.28.22)
• “There cannot be a return to the time before the Russian aggression on Ukraine, because when the situation changes, we, too, must change,” German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said at the G7 summit. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi told Scholz that the war was damaging the economies of developing countries across the world, and that India couldn’t join any efforts against Russia. (WSJ, 06.28.22)
• Boris Johnson has built on Emmanuel Macron’s proposal to create a “European Political Community” by suggesting the creation of a modern Roman empire, which would encompass Turkey and other key North African states in a bid to strengthen continental unity. (FT, 06.29.22)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan said June 28 that “thus far” Washington had not seen China be “militarily supportive” of Russia or “engage in wholesale or systematic undermining or evasion of U.S. sanctions.” (WSJ, 06.29.22)

Missile defense:

• See “Military aspects” section above.

Nuclear arms:

• Russia will deliver missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads to Belarus in the coming months, Putin said June 25 as he received Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko. "In the coming months, we will transfer to Belarus Iskander-M tactical missile systems, which can use ballistic or cruise missiles, in their conventional and nuclear versions," Putin said. He also offered to upgrade Belarus' warplanes to make them capable of carrying nuclear weapons. (MT/AFP, 06.25.22)
• Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council, threatened that Russia will station ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons on its border if Sweden and Finland are allowed to join NATO, and warned that Ukrainian membership of the military alliance could trigger World War III. (WSJ, 06.29.22)
• Putin said on June 30 that Moscow was open to dialogue on strategic stability and nuclear non-proliferation, but the Kremlin said no such talks with Washington were on the cards for now. (Reuters, 06.30.22)

Counterterrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• No significant developments.

Cyber security:

• Russia-based web searches for pirated Microsoft products including the Windows operating system have skyrocketed after the company halted sales in the country (MT, 06.27.22)

Energy exports from CIS:

• India is importing 1.1 million barrels of Russian crude a day. This time last year, the country was buying 173,000 barrels a day. (Axios, 06.28.22)
• Sri Lanka is sending two government ministers to Russia to negotiate for fuel—one of the necessities nearly exhausted amid the island nation’s economic collapse. (AP, 06.27.22)
• OPEC and its allies agreed on June 30 to stick with their planned hike in oil output in August, after deciding to accelerate the group’s production increases last month. (FT, 06.30.22)

Climate change:

• Russia has quietly made it easier to build pipelines in nature reserves, scrapped regulations on automobile emissions and pushed back measures to reduce pollution as part of a broad rollback of environmental regulations that looks set to gather pace amid the war in Ukraine and a deep economic recession. (MT/AFP, 06.25.22)

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• See other sections.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• U.S. basketball star Brittney Griner, who is in detention in Russia on drug charges, will go on trial in Russia on July 1, a court said on June 27. (MT/AFP, 06.27.22)

II. Russia’s domestic policies

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Russia’s GDP declined by 3% year on year in April 2022, swinging into red from 1.3% GDP growth in March 2022. (BNE, 06.30.22)
• More than 770 billion rubles will be allocated to develop the construction of passenger planes in Russia, according to the Russian government. The program provides for the building of more than 1,000 domestic aircraft by 2030. Among them will be 140 SSJ New aircraft, 270 MS-21-310s, 70 Il-114-300 and 70 Tu-214 aircraft. (RM, 06.25.22)
• Russian aviation authorities are preventing jobless pilots from finding work with foreign airlines. The Federal Air Transportation Agency declines to verify Russian pilots' licenses as part of standard procedure when receiving requests from foreign counterparts, according to Kommersant. (MT/AFP, 06.28.22)
• Russia's finance minister said June 29 the government could use excess energy revenues for foreign currency interventions to rein in the ruble, which has surged to a seven-year high. Anton Siluanov said Russia was "ready to sacrifice" part of its budget by using excess oil and gas revenue to intervene in the foreign currency market. "This should affect the exchange rate," he said, adding it was a measure of last resort. (MT/AFP, 06.29.22)
• Moscow opposition politician Ilya Yashin has been sentenced to jail a month after being found guilty of “discrediting” the Russian military. (MT/AFP, 06.28.22)
• The State Duma has passed a new bill expanding the criteria for individuals and organizations who can be labeled “foreign agents.” According to the legislation, any organization “under foreign influence” can be listed as a foreign agent, barring them from activities such as receiving state financing, teaching at state universities, working with minors or providing expertise on environmental issues. (MT/AFP, 06.29.22)
• Putin has ordered Russian schools to appoint dedicated “patriotic advisers” as part of an ongoing push to instill “spiritual-moral values” in the nation’s students amid the war in Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 06.29.22)
• The chairman of the attorneys’ chamber in Russia's Republic of Udmurtia, Dmitry Talantov, has been sent to pretrial detention over his criticism of the Kremlin for its ongoing unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 06.30.22)
• A court in Moscow has replaced the one-year parole-like sentence handed to Lyusya Shtein, a member of the Pussy Riot protest group and a Moscow municipal lawmaker, to actual prison time, saying she violated the terms of her punishment when she fled the country. (RFE/RL, 06.30.22)
• Vladimir Mau, head of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), was detained as a suspect in a 21-million-ruble ($399,810) embezzlement case, Russia’s Interior Ministry said. The criminal case in which Mau has been implicated was opened last year against former deputy education minister Marina Rakova. (MT/AFP, 06.30.22)
• See also “Punitive measures” section above.

Defense and aerospace:

•  See section on “Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts” above.

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

• The prosecution has asked a court in Russia’s southwestern city of Rostov-on-Don to convict and sentence opera singer Vadim Cheldiyev to 11 years in prison for his role in organizing a massive rally against coronavirus restrictions in the North Ossetia region in 2020. (RFE/RL, 06.29.22)
• Putin believes that one of the main tasks of the Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) is "to promote the development of industrial potential," Kommersant reported. In his opinion, expressed during a visit to SVR headquarters on June 30, this is especially important in the context of Western sanctions. (RM, 06.30.22) 

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Russia summoned Britain's ambassador to Moscow to protest Prime Minister Boris Johnson's remarks about Putin. Johnson said June 29 that, if Putin were a woman, “I really don't think he would've embarked on a crazy, macho war of invasion and violence in the way that he has.” (RFE/RL, 06.30.22)
• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said June 30 that a new "Iron Curtain" was descending between Moscow and the West amid the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine. Lavrov also claimed that relations between Russia and the European Union no longer existed. (MT/AFP, 06.30.22)

Ukraine:

• Only four out of 55 African leaders attended Zelensky’s recent virtual address to the African Union, which had finally agreed he could speak to them after 10 weeks of asking. (FT, 06.24.22)
• Tens of thousands of people joined in Ukraine's largest LGBTQ rights parade, held in the Polish capital, Warsaw, after organizers determined they could not hold the event in Kyiv due to Russia's invasion. (RFE/RL, 06.25.22)
• Ukraine cut diplomatic ties with Syria on June 29 after Damascus recognized the independence of the eastern regions of Luhansk and Donetsk. (RFE/RL, 06.30.22)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• The Belarusian KGB has added 23 people to its terrorist list, including the jailed husband of opposition leader Svyatlana Tsikhanouskaya, Syarhey Tsikhanouski, and RFE/RL consultant Ihar Losik. (RFE/RL, 06.28.22)
• Three Belarusian activists who were arrested for allegedly damaging railways in the country to disrupt Russian arms and troops supply to war-torn Ukraine may face the death penalty if convicted. (RFE/RL, 06.29.22)
• Poland says it has completed a steel wall stretching along 186 kilometers of the border with Belarus to stop the flow of illegal migrants after tens of thousands, mostly from the Middle East, tried to enter the EU member state from Belarusian territory last year. (RFE/RL, 06.30.22)
• Amnesty International has published a damning report, alleging dire conditions in Lithuania’s migration centers. Among its findings, the human rights NGO has documented allegations of racism and violent pushbacks. (BNE, 06.28.22)
• Constitutional amendments initiated by Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoev will annul the current right of the Karakalpakstan region to seek independence. (RFE/RL, 06.28.22)
• The new president of Turkmenistan, Serdar Berdymukhammedov, marked 100 days of his rule by banning Botox and other “beauty treatments” for women. They are also advised to ride in the car only in the back seat. (Media Zona, 06.27.22)

• A court in Bishkek has acquitted former Kyrgyz President Almazbek Atambaev in a case related to mass protests that swept the Central Asian nation in 2020. (RFE/RL, 06.28.22)
• Kazakhstan's deputy prosecutor-general, Aset Shyndaliev, says six people were tortured to death after being arrested for taking part in January anti-government protests that led to the removal of former President Nursultan Nazarbayev and his relatives from the oil-rich Central Asian nation's political scene. (RFE/RL, 06.29.22)
• Russia is working actively to "normalize" the situation in Afghanistan, President Vladimir Putin said during a visit to Tajikistan, his first foreign trip since Moscow invaded Ukraine. "We are trying to build relations with the political forces that control the situation," Putin said of Afghanistan during talks with Tajik President Emomali Rakhmon. (MT/AFP, 06.29.22)
  • Russian-Tajik trade in the first five months of 2022 saw a 46.2% year-on-year increase compared to the same period in 2021, the two presidents said (MT/AFP, 06.30.22)
  • The World Bank estimates that remittances sent home by Tajik migrant laborers, the vast bulk of whom usually go to Russia for work, may plunge by 40% in 2022. (MT/AFP, 06.30.22)
• Putin and the leaders of the other four countries along the Caspian Sea on June 29 reaffirmed their shared commitment to keep foreign militaries out of the region during the sixth Caspian Summit in Ashgabat. (AP, 06.30.22)
• The International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants for three people who allegedly detained civilians to use as "bargaining chips" in negotiations during the 2008 conflict between Russia and Georgia in South Ossetia. (MT/AFP, 06.30.22)

IV. Quotable and notable

• Macron told Putin four days before the war: "I don't know where your lawyer learned the law.” (LeTemps, 06.25.22, via Twitter)

• There is “no potential for regime change” in Russia, and there are no economic grounds for it, Russian billionaire Oleg Deripaska has said. “The opposition preferred beautiful European views … and retreated from the life of the country… Waiting for Mikhail Maratovich Fridman or [Pyotr] Aven or [Mikhail] Khodorkovsky to take up arms and break through to Bryansk in tanks—that is unlikely [to happen].” Deripaska also said it would be a "colossal mistake" for Russia to destroy Ukraine with its military offensive (Meduza, 06.28.22, MT/AFP, 06.28.22)
• Chairman of the Constitutional Court Valery Zorkin to Rossiiskaya Gazeta: “We need to fundamentally reform the Russian system of mass secondary, higher and special education and upbringing. … Without that, it would be simply impossible to ensure a deep and broad mobilization of citizens for the upcoming … big fight against the West, which has lost its wits.” (RM, 06.29.22) 

 

Photo courtesy of NATO, via Flickr, under a Creative Commons license: A member of the Ukrainian vehicle decontamination team in exercise Rapid Trident, Sept. 19, 2019.