In the 14 months since Russia carried out its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Moscow's fighter force has demonstrated it maintains a significant advantage over Kyiv's aircraft, according to a recent report on the strengths and weaknesses of Russian airpower published by the Center for Naval Analyses (CNA), a US-based think tank.
Ukraine's fate against Russia's superior air force hinges on its dwindling surface-to-air missile arsenal, airpower expert warns
Ukraine's ability to keep Russia's superior air force at bay relies heavily on its inventory of surface-to-air missiles, a new report argues, but leaked US intelligence documents indicate Kyiv's air defenses could be in trouble, making support from its partners critical.
- Russia's air force has an edge over Ukraine's aircraft, requiring Ukraine to rely on other capabilities.
- Fighting off Russia's air force is dependent on Ukraine's surface-to-air missiles, a new report says.
- But leaked US intelligence shows that Ukraine's SAM inventory has reached critical levels.
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". . .Given the disparities in missile and radar performances, electronic warfare equipment, and overall numbers, "Russia's fighter force has shown that it is more than capable of overmatching" Ukraine's forces, the April 17 report says.
And in Syria, prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Moscow's forces demonstrated that if the attack aircraft are permitted to fly uncontested at medium altitudes, they have no problem targeting and engaging fixed defensive positions and infrastructure.
As Ukrainian air forces can't compete, the task of fending off Russian aircraft ultimately comes down to Ukraine's surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems, Justin Bronk, an airpower expert who authored the CNA report, said. Bronk notes that if Western countries — like the US and its NATO partners — can't resupply, augment, and replace Ukraine's SAM systems, Russia's more powerful could overrun the Ukrainian air force and go on to control critical airspace.
"This would pose a serious risk to the Ukrainian Army's ability to sustainably hold fixed defensive positions, assemble reinforcements and reserve units in rear areas, and safely marshal ammunition and logistics supplies," Bronk wrote in the report. But if Ukraine can maintain its SAM inventory, it's not very likely that Russia's airpower can "significantly change its fortunes so far into the war," he added.
When Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Kyiv had managed to field what Bronk called "an impressive air defense inventory" that included several different types of surface-to-air missile systems, as well as shoulder-launched portable missile systems that could defend against targets at lower altitudes.
But after more than a year of war, Ukraine's SAM inventory may be in rough shape, according a collection of top secret Pentagon documents that was leaked online, allegedly by a 21-year-old member of the Massachusetts Air National Guard. One document in particular that was obtained and reviewed by Insider details Ukraine's air defense capabilities and the risks it faces.
The document, which appears to have been published at some point in February, says SA-10s and SA-11s, the NATO names for the S-300 and Buk systems, make up 89% of Ukraine's medium and high-range air defense protection. US intelligence estimated that Ukraine would exhaust its SA-11s as early as the end of March while the SA-10s could be gone by early May.
Ukraine has pushed back on some observations and assessments in the leaked documents, but given that Russia has continuously lobbed a variety of munitions at Ukrainian cities, it is likely that the country's air defenses are strained, with the potential for certain capabilities to have been depleted.
According to the CNA report, Ukraine has lost a "significant" amount of SAM systems because of Russian missile, artillery, and loitering munition strikes. And because Kyiv's forces are expending lots of ammunition to continuously intercept Russian aerial threats, they rely heavily on missile supplies from other countries just so to maintain its surface-to-air combat capabilities.
The leaked document also states that Ukraine's other air defense systems — to include other Soviet-era systems, as well as capabilities like the US-provided National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS) and Germany's IRIS-T system — have limited quantities available, are unable to match the Russian volume, cannot be layered, and can only cover select assets.
While shorter-range systems — like US-made Stingers — help to ease Ukraine's dwindling supply of tactical and strategic SAMs, these weapons don't have the same deterrent effect against Russia's multirole fighters, the classified document notes.
Despite this bleak assessment, Ukraine recently celebrated the much-anticipated arrival of American-made Patriot missile defense batteries, which are combat-tested surface-to-air systems that can target and eliminate aircraft, drones, missiles, and loitering munitions.
"Our beautiful Ukrainian sky becomes more secure because Patriot air defense systems have arrived in Ukraine," Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said last week. He thanked the US, Germany, and the Netherlands — all of which have pledged to send the highly advanced systems to Ukraine.
But as Bronk noted in his report, continued support is necessary to prevent Russia from securing the ability to "to overpower the [Ukrainian Air Force's] remaining fighters and gain control of the airspace over the frontlines in key areas."
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CNA analysts produce some 250 reports each year. Those that are available for public release can be found on this page, organized by year.
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