Ukraine Conundrums: Free-and-Fair Elections

Kyiv officials also cannot dismiss the idea of holding elections out of hand and risk alienating key political players in the West, who are demanding elections and are crucial for Ukraine to maintain international financial and military assistance.

Zelensky also said Ukraine could not afford the $135 million cost of holding an election while it is fighting for its very survival. He suggested that if the West wants an election then it should pay for it.

6 hours ago

In a recent interview on a US news program, Ukraine’s first lady raised doubts about President Volodymyr Zelensky’s plans to run for a second term during the wartime difficulties of Russia’s full-scale invasion.

Olena Zelenska, the wife of Ukraine’s president, was interviewed by Margaret Brennan on the CBS weekly “Face the Nation” program on Sunday, just days after her husband addressed the UN and met with US President Joe Biden.

✓ She spoke about the effect of Russia’s full-scale invasion was having on children, especially those abducted from occupied areas of Ukraine, and crimes of sexual violence being carried out by Russian troops. This continued the themes she raised on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly on Tuesday, Sept. 19.

Brennan asked her about how her life and that of her family had changed when her husband became president and how she would “feel about him running again in 2024 if elections are held?”

Zelenska admitted it would be difficult for her saying: “You know, even when he ran for the first time, I didn't fully endorse it.” This comment repeats those she made in an interview with Sky Australia in July 22 , where she said she only found out he was running when she saw him announce it on TV.

This time around she said: “I don’t know whether he has made this decision [to run] or not. It will depend on the situation in our country and the situation and the possibility of organizing free and fair elections.”

President Zelensky Outlines Long Term Plans for Weapons Security

In his Sept. 25 evening address, Ukraine’s president said it was vital that Ukraine should develop the capability to produce the advanced weapons that would ensure Ukraine’s future security.

Zelenska went on to say “It will also depend on whether our society would need him as a president. If he feels that Ukrainian society will no longer wish him to be the president, he will probably not run. But I’ll support him, whatever decision he makes.”

The Washington Post said earlier on Sunday that a number of Western officials, including US Senator Lindsey Graham, have been pushing for Ukraine to hold presidential elections in March next year, which is when they were originally due to be held, even as the war continues.

✓ Graham said, in a press release on his website, that “Holding democratic elections during wartime would be seen as a bold and consequential decision by President Zelensky and the people of Ukraine. It speaks to their vision of a free and democratic Ukraine both today and in the years to come.”

The Washington Post, however, quoted a senior administration official from the Biden administration that the White House was not pushing Ukraine to have an election. Elections are currently blocked under Ukraine’s imposition of martial law, which is reviewed and renewed every 90 days.

While the Ukrainian first lady's statement seems to indicate Zelensky has not yet decided whether to run for a second term, he was quoted by Reuters at the end of August as saying that elections could take place during wartime but only if partners shared the cost, legislators approved, and if everyone, including Ukrainian refugees abroad had access to the polls.

He said any elections must include those serving on the front lines: “They are defending this democracy today, and [it was unacceptable] not to give them this opportunity because of war.” Which he suggested that, as well as providing funds, Ukraine’s partners must be ready “to send observers into the trenches.”

He said that the costs of elections are high in normal times and during a period of war could only be higher and added: “I will not take money from weapons and give it to elections.”

President Zelensky has not indicated, one way or the other, if he would run but some of his critics pointed out that he said when first elected in 2019 that he would only run for office for one term and would not seek office a second time.

✓✓ Of course, much has changed since then in ways he could never have predicted. BBC News Ukraine on Aug. 31 quoted Zelensky as saying in an interview with the Portuguese RTP channel that “If the war is still going on in 2024, and if elections are held, I will never in my life abandon my country. Because I am a guarantor of the Constitution, and I will protect it under any circumstances.”

1 day ago

The Ukrainian first lady, Olena Zelenska, isn't sure her husband will run for reelection in 2024.
The Ukrainian election is complicated by the ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia.
Some Western officials are pushing for the elections to happen despite Ukraine's concerns.

2 days ago

Kiev can’t reject these demands outright for fear that a flat refusal would alienate its key backers, Post’s report says

Ukrainian officials are resisting calls from Kiev's Western backers to hold parliamentary and presidential elections, even as martial law prohibits such processes, the Washington Post reported on Sunday.

✓ Several Western politicians, including Tiny Kox, head of the Council of Europe’s Parliamentary Assembly, and Democratic US Senators Richard Blumenthal and Elizabeth Warren, have urged Kiev to hold elections, the report says. Their efforts were also supported by Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, who described a ballot in Ukraine not only as “an act of defiance against the Russian invasion, but an embrace of democracy and freedom.”

However, according to officials in Ukraine and experts interviewed by the Post, holding elections in a country embroiled in a major conflict “is virtually impossible and also ill-advised.” The conundrum stems from the Russian military presence in regions that Ukraine claims as its own, as well as from the fact that millions have fled the country and tens of thousands of soldiers are deployed.

✓ Officials in Kiev reportedly believe that a major vote would require local authorities to overcome enormous financial, logistical, and legal hurdles. Some are said to be wary that Russia could exploit the elections by fomenting division, infiltrating its assets and weakening Ukraine from within.

“The Russians are pushing for this through their secret channels,” an anonymous Ukrainian security official told the outlet. “There is no situation in which it is possible to have a democratic election during the war.”

West preparing to ‘dump’ Zelensky – Lukashenko

However, according to the Washington Post article, Kiev cannot dismiss out of hand the calls for elections without risking alienating its Western backers, who have emerged as crucial sources of financial and military support.

However, the Biden administration is said to be sympathetic to the obstacles facing Kiev and is not pushing for elections.

Martial law, first imposed shortly after the start of Russia’s military campaign in February 2022 and repeatedly extended since then, prohibits the holding of presidential and parliamentary elections in Ukraine. In June, President Vladimir Zelenksy said that the vote could take place only after the end of hostilities.

In August, however, he conceded that an election could take place but on condition that the parliament quickly change national legislation and the West provide an additional $135 million in funding. The latter statement was denounced by US Republican presidential hopeful Vivek Ramaswamy as a “ballot-box shakedown.”

Ukraine’s allies are privately pushing the 45-year-old president to turn his attention to what kind of country will emerge from the war, even as his troops struggle for a breakthrough on the battlefield, according to other people familiar with the matter.

Nato papers over cracks after Zelensky loses his cool
13 Jul 2023

As an incentive to tackle the corruption that has plagued Ukraine for years, several countries are even set to link future financial aid to specific reforms including bolstering the anti-corruption prosecutor’s office, the people said, asking not to be named discussing private conversations.

Those shifts show how international support for Ukraine is moving away from crisis mode in search of a more long-term approach as the prospect of a drawn-out conflict starts to seep into the thinking of leaders around the world.

2 days ago

September 24, 2023 at 1:00 a.m. EDT

KYIV — Despite Russia’s war in Ukraine and a nationwide state of martial law, some Western politicians are pushing the government in Kyiv to hold parliamentary and presidential elections — a prospect that has left many Ukrainian officials scratching their heads.

The proposal — initially floated by Tiny Kox, the Dutch head of the Council of Europe’s Parliamentary Assembly — was also pressed by Sen. Lindsey O. Graham (R-S.C.), during a visit to Kyiv last month with Sens. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), which otherwise focused on solidifying U.S. assistance and bipartisan support for Ukraine.

Other Republicans have also taken up the cause, including conservative commentator Tucker Carlson, who falsely accused Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky of canceling elections. Ukraine’s constitution prohibits elections under martial law.

Holding free and fair elections in wartime is virtually impossible and also ill-advised, according to Ukrainian officials, election experts and democracy advocates. Roughly one-fifth of Ukraine’s territory is now occupied by Russian forces. Millions of Ukrainians are displaced and many are living outside the country. Tens of thousands of soldiers are deployed to the front.

The pressure to hold elections, despite such obstacles, highlights the constant demand by some in the West that Ukraine prove its commitment to democracy, even though Ukrainians have twice risen up in mass pro-democracy demonstrations — the Orange Revolution of 2004 to 2005 and the Maidan Revolution of 2013 to 2014.

Ukrainian officials say that in order to hold a major vote during wartime, considerable financial, logistical and legal hurdles must be overcome. In private, some say that the prospect is outright impossible, and could provide Moscow’s security forces with a means to infiltrate and weaken Ukraine from within.

“The Russians are pushing for this through their secret channels,” a Ukrainian official in the security apparatus said, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the subject. “There is no situation in which it is possible to have a democratic election during the war.”

The official said holding an election could give Russia an opportunity to manipulate and create divisions in Ukrainian society and among politicians. As the country fights for its existence, such divisions have largely disappeared during the war.

“It’s risky, bad for the country and senseless from a political point of view,” the official said, adding: “It would undermine the very fragile political resilience of the Ukrainian state.”

But Kyiv officials also cannot dismiss the idea of holding elections out of hand and risk alienating key political players in the West, who are demanding elections and are crucial for Ukraine to maintain international financial and military assistance.

Former Ukrainian prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko said that holding elections during wartime would lead to Ukraine losing the war, as internal political disagreements — differences that occur naturally in a democratic society — would shatter the national unity needed to defeat Russia.

“The price of holding elections in wartime will be a lost war,” Tymoshenko said in an interview in Brussels this month. “Unity is an indispensable resource for our victory.”

Tymoshenko also noted that soldiers fighting would have difficulty voting and are barred by law from seeking office in wartime. “Those who are sacrificing their lives on the front line, most of them will not be able to vote,” she said. “Seven million Ukrainian people are now refugees, many living outside the country — most of them will not be able to vote.”

In May, Kox, a Dutch politician, gave an interview to Ukrainian media in which he called on Kyiv to hold elections that were “as free and fair as possible.” He gave the example of Turkey holding elections directly after experiencing a major earthquake as proof that holding a vote was possible.

Kox later amended his comments, acknowledging that elections could not be held while Ukraine was under martial law, which is unlikely to be lifted before the war ends. But, he said, “at a certain moment there will be elections, and my advice is to start preparing for it as soon as possible.”

Graham made his push during a meeting with Zelensky while visiting Kyiv as part of a congressional delegation. At a news conference ahead of the meeting, he said it was “time for Ukraine to take the next step” in the “development of democracy, namely to hold elections in 2024.”

“I want this country to have free and fair elections, even when it's under attack,” Graham said.

In an interview with Ukrainian media after Graham’s visit, Zelensky said the U.S. senator’s proposal was “very reasonable, very fair.” But he also said he told Graham that elections in Ukraine under martial law were only possible “if the right to vote is ensured for all citizens.”

“How will the military be able to vote? Show me the infrastructure. No one has shown it yet,” Zelensky said. “How will people abroad be able to vote? No one has shown me.”

The following day, Graham issued a statement saying that he was “very pleased to hear that President Zelensky has opened the door to elections in Ukraine in 2024,” calling the decision “bold and consequential” and “an act of defiance against the Russian invasion.”

“I cannot think of a better symbol for Ukraine than to hold free and fair elections during the course of a war,” Graham said.

His statement acknowledged that Ukraine’s parliament “must approve this” and that “the security environment” for a vote “would be challenging.”

“I will not hold elections on credit. I will not take money from weapons and allocate it to elections, either,” Zelensky said.

The money, he said, would go to organizing the vote among soldiers and for the estimated 7 million Ukrainian refugees abroad. The West would also have to send election observers, who would be “in the trenches,” Zelensky said.

Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy called Zelensky’s demand for $135 million a “ballot box shakedown.” Ramaswamy previously said that the United States should stop funding Ukraine and force Kyiv to negotiate with Moscow.

“[His] veiled threat to forgo democratic elections in Ukraine unless the American people foot the bill and cough up another $135 million in funding represents a new level of extortion of the United States,” Ramaswamy said in a statement published by Fox News.

In August, Ukraine’s parliament extended martial law by 90 days, until November, thereby postponing a parliamentary election that was supposed to take place no later than the end of October.

For parliamentary elections to take place, the constitution must be amended, legal experts say. Alternatively, martial law could be lifted.

However, members of parliament would need to halt martial law for at least two to three months — the time required under Ukrainian law between the announcement of elections and voting day, and also to allow candidates enough time to campaign.

Senior Biden administration officials have said that it’s up to Ukraine to decide when to hold elections. During a visit to Kyiv earlier this month, Secretary of State Antony Blinken urged Zelensky to consult widely with civil society and the Ukrainian opposition on when to hold the next vote.

A senior U.S. official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive topic, said that the Biden administration is sympathetic to the many logistical obstacles to holding an election in wartime.

“We’re not pushing them to have an election,” the senior official said.

One Ukrainian member of parliament said the pressure was coming primarily from Republicans as the 2024 U.S. presidential election gets underway. “This is logical and to be expected,” the lawmaker said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to protect diplomatic relations. “Of course, Ukrainian affairs will one way or another become part of the domestic American discourse.”

Tymoshenko, the former prime minister, said that her party disagrees with Zelensky on many issues but opposes holding elections under current conditions. “We are absolutely against this,” she said. “To lose the war only because somebody wants elections — it’s unacceptable.”

Isabelle Khurshudyan in Kyiv contributed to this report.

correction

An earlier version of this article misspelled the surname of the Dutch head of the Council of Europe’s Parliamentary Assembly. He is Tiny Kox. The article also misstated when Ukraine’s Orange Revolution occurred. It was in 2004 to 2005. The article has been corrected.

Understanding the Russia-Ukraine conflict

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26 September 2023