AN ADVANCE ESTIMATE: BEA News: Gross Domestic Product, Third Quarter 2023 (Advance Estimate)

 In Q2, real GDP increased 2.1%

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BEA News: Gross Domestic Product, Third Quarter 2023 (Advance Estimate) The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has issued the following news release today: Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 4.9 percent in the third quarter of 2023, according to the “advance” estimate. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 2.1 percent. The increase in the third quarter primarily reflected increases in consumer spending and inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. The full text of the release can be found at www.bea.gov/news/2023/gross-domestic-product-third-quarter-2023-advance-estimate.   EMBARGOED UNTIL RELEASE AT 8:30 a.m. EDT, Thursday, October 26, 2023 Gross Domestic Product, Third Quarter 2023 (Advance Estimate) Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 4.9 percent in the third quarter of 2023 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 2.1 percent. The GDP estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (refer to “Source Data for the Advance Estimate” on page 2). The “second” estimate for the third quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on November 29, 2023. The increase in real GDP reflected increases in consumer spending, private inventory investment, exports, state and local government spending, federal government spending, and residential fixed investment that were partly offset by a decrease in nonresidential fixed investment (table 2). Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. The increase in consumer spending reflected increases in both services and goods.  Within services, the leading contributors were housing and utilities, health care, financial services and insurance, and food services and accommodations.  Within goods, the leading contributors to the increase were other nondurable goods (led by prescription drugs) as well as recreational goods and vehicles.  The increase in private inventory investment reflected increases in manufacturing and retail trade.  Within nonresidential fixed investment, a decrease in equipment was partly offset by increases in intellectual property products and structures. Compared to the second quarter, the acceleration in real GDP in the third quarter reflected accelerations in consumer spending, private inventory investment, and federal government spending and upturns in exports and residential fixed investment.  These movements were partly offset by a downturn in nonresidential fixed investment and a deceleration in state and local government spending. Imports turned up. Current dollar GDP increased 8.5 percent at an annual rate, or $560.5 billion, in the third quarter to a level of $27.62 trillion. In the second quarter, GDP increased 3.8 percent, or $249.4 billion (table 1 and table 3). The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.0 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 1.4 percent in the second quarter (table 4).  The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 2.9 percent, compared with an increase of 2.5 percent. Excluding food and energy prices,  the PCE price index increased 2.4 percent, compared with an increase of 3.7 percent. Personal Income Current-dollar personal income increased $199.5 billion in the third quarter, compared with an increase of $239.6 billion in the second quarter. The increase reflected increases in compensation, proprietors’ income, personal income receipts on assets, and rental income of persons that were partly offset by a decrease in personal current transfer receipts (table 8). Disposable personal income increased $95.8 billion, or 1.9 percent, in the third quarter, compared with an increase of $296.5 billion, or 6.1 percent, in the second quarter. Real disposable personal income decreased 1.0 percent, in contrast to an increase of 3.5 percent. Personal saving was $776.9 billion in the third quarter, compared with $1.04 trillion in the second quarter. The personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 3.8 percent in the third quarter, compared with 5.2 percent in the second quarter. Source Data for the Advance Estimate The GDP estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency.  Information on the source data and key assumptions used in the advance estimate is provided in a Technical Note and a detailed "Key Source Data and Assumptions" file posted with the release.  The "second" estimate for the third quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on November 29, 2023. For information on updates to GDP, refer to the "Additional Information" section that follows. *          *          * Next release, November 29, 2023, at 8:30 a.m. EST Gross Domestic Product (Second Estimate) Corporate Profits (Preliminary Estimate) Third Quarter 2023