A drone base known as Air Base 201 near Agadez was built at a cost of more than $100m. Since 2018 the base has been used to target ISIL (ISIS) fighters and Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM), an al-Qaeda affiliate, in the Sahel region. It’s there for war on terror operations but it’s really there also for great power projection against countries like Russia and China.”
Introduction: Niger is nearly 500 000 square miles of landlocked country bordered by no less than seven neighbouring states.
It is a country saddled with a history of military interventions. However, most recently, under the leadership of President Mohamed Bazoum, it has been regarded as a ‘model of stability’ and ‘model of democracy’ in a region marred by political instability.1 Bazoum’s election in 2021 and the subsequent peaceful transition of power raised expectations of democratic rule and a renewed commitment to good governance. However, the military coup shattered those prospects and exposed the fragility of democracy in West Africa.
In the current political upheaval, the key players include not just the domestic military forces, but also international powers. A legacy of French colonialism and the US Global War on Terror looms large over the region, casting its shadow on a complex narrative.2 However, the militarised ambitions of both regional and global actors prevail in West Africa and Niger again is caught in the crosshairs. As one considers the nuances of the situation, two compelling questions emerge: How has the militarisation of West Africa, explored through the lens of the War on Terror, set the stage for the recent coup in Niger, and what does this upheaval signify for the future of the region?3 Amidst the shifts in power, a closer examination of conflict connections and motivations reveals hidden agendas, geopolitical strategic moves, and the struggle for control in Niger.
This coup is different
The coup began in late July 2023 and unfolded differently from the typical trajectory of political upheavals in West Africa. On 28 July 2023, the head of Niger’s presidential guard, General Abdourahamane Tchiani, declared himself head of state after the military seized power.4 While General Tchiani justified the overthrow with the troubling security and economic issues,there have been suggestions that he acted upon hearing reports that he was about to be removed from his position.5 The international response to the Niger overthrow was swift and resolute. The US and France, key allies in the fight against terrorism in the region, threatened to sever ties with Niger and suspend military cooperation. The European Union (EU) and the United Nations (UN) condemned the action.6 Closer to home, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) threatened to send troops if Tchiani and his followers failed to cede power.7
The coup in Niger was driven by several factors, including the growing dissatisfaction with the government’s handling of security issues, particularly the rising threat of terrorism. The military voiced its concerns that the civilian government was not doing enough to address security threats and protect the country’s 24 million residents.8 In addition, allegations of embezzlement and the mismanagement of public funds strengthened perceptions of government corruption. With public trust and support for the government eroding, a coup d’état became increasingly likely.9 Concerns about the lack of economic development and high unemployment rates have a clear basis. While Niger boasts some of the world’s largest uranium deposits, it is still one of the most heavily indebted poor countries (HIPCs), relying on subsistence agriculture such as livestock and farming, and the export of raw commodities.10 These ongoing challenges combined to create a volatile situation that has now led to the military coup in Niger.
NO STRINGS ATTACHED: Surprise!
U.S.-trained officers have conducted in at least six coups in neighboring Burkina Faso and Mali since 2012. They have also been involved in recent takeovers in Gambia (2014), Guinea (2021), Mauritania (2008), and Niger (2023)...General Sissi in Egypt, etc.
NIGER COUP LEADER JOINS LONG LINE OF U.S.-TRAINED MUTINEERS
Brig. Gen. Moussa Salaou Barmou, who trained at Fort Benning, Georgia, helped oust Niger’s democratically elected president.
Lt. Gen. Johnathan Braga, U.S. Army Special Operations commander, meets with Brig. Gen. Moussa Barmou, Niger Special Operations Forces commander, at Air Base 101, in Niger, on June 12, 2023. Photo: Staff Sgt. Amy Younger/US Air Force
Last October, Washington officially designated the military takeover as a coup.
Niger Coup Could Jeopardize US Counterterrorism Operations in Africa
Niger Coup Could Jeopardize US Counterterrorism Operations in Africa
The U.S. and France have condemned the military’s power grab, led by Abdourahamane Tchiani, Niger’s new self-proclaimed leader. A group of West African nations on July 30 imposed sanctions and even threatened force if President Mohammad Bazoum is not restored to power.
Yet there are no signs that the military junta that seized control is backing down, and concerns have grown that Russia might try to take advantage of the upheaval.
“If Western operations are significantly impacted by this, it’s going to be bad for the Nigerien people,” retired Army Gen. Stephen J. Townsend, who led U.S. Africa Command from 2019-2022, told Air & Space Forces Magazine. “It’s going to be bad for the region. It’s going to be bad for Europe before it’s bad for America, but it’s going to be bad for everybody.”
For now, the U.S. has halted security cooperation with Niger while American personnel are largely staying on their bases, Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Brig. Gen. Patrick S. Ryder told reporters Aug 1.
“We continue to stay in contact with the Niger military, but in terms of training, for example, those types of things, that’s been suspended,” said Ryder, who declined to say whether U.S. drone operations had stopped.
Taking a wait-and-see approach, the Biden administration has not officially declared the removal of Bazoum a coup, which would require the U.S. to cut off military assistance under U.S. law, undermining efforts to combat terrorism in the area. The U.S. says it still holds out hope that Bazoum could be restored to power and U.S. officials and analysts said the situation on the ground is still unfolding.
“Currently, the position of Gen. Tchiani is fragile because he is torn between different political and military actors within the CNSP itself,” said Tatiana Smirnova, an expert on Niger at the University of Quebec in Montreal, referring to the junta’s formal name, the National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland.
The U.S. has roughly 1,100 troops in Niger, where the U.S. military operates two air bases. That has enabled the U.S. to fly drones, such as Air Force MQ-9s, to gather intelligence on militant groups in the region, including al-Qaeda, ISIS affiliates, and Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), a terrorist group active in Niger and other parts of West Africa. In 2017, four American service members were killed while hunting for an ISIS leader.
“We don’t want this to be something like Afghanistan,” an Air Force officer serving in Niger told Air & Space Forces Magazine in 2022.
John Kirby, the coordinator for strategic communications at the National Security Council, told reporters Aug. 1 that “there’s no indication that Russia was behind this” despite Russian flags being seen being displayed in Niger’s capital.
But Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Russian mercenary Wagner group Wagner, hailed the coup in a Telegram message and suggested his troops would help Niger maintain order.
“The Niger coup is condemnable enough in its own right, but other West African states and Western governments should be particularly worried given the recent history of regime change in the violence-plagued Sahel,” wrote James Barnett, a Hudson Institute research fellow who is based in Lagos, Nigeria. “In both Mali and Burkina Faso, coups in 2021 and 2022, respectively, were followed by a further rise in jihadist violence, geopolitical spats between the juntas and their traditional Western security partners, and, in the case of Mali, the arrival of the Wagner Group.”
Smirnova said there may not be overwhelming pro-Russian support among the general public, but noted that anti-Western sentiment runs strong while there is “general fatigue” with the current government among the population.
“Russian flags in the streets of Niamey do not necessarily mean that there are pro-Russian sentiments in the country, while anti-Western sentiments have been persisting for some time already,” Smirnova told Air & Space Forces Magazine.
“People are tired of not-equitable distribution of resources,” she added. “All that may explain why so many political actors do not condemn the coup now.”
France, Italy, and other European countries have moved to evacuate their citizens, a step the U.S. had not yet taken. On Aug. 2, the U.S. State Department announced the partial evacuation of U.S. government personnel and their family members. But for now, the U.S. military is staying.
“There are no changes to the U.S. military force posture in Niger during the Department of State-led ordered departure,” Ryder said in an Aug. 3 statement. “The Department of State has not requested DOD personnel or equipment as part of the ordered departure. We continue to monitor this fluid and evolving situation and reiterate our focus on a diplomatic solution.”
As yet, a diplomatic solution remains elusive.
“Military coups are deeply ingrained in their history there, so I think it was always not far beneath the surface,” said Townsend. “I’m very disappointed, but I’m not shocked by what happened in Niger.”
Editor’s note: this article was updated on Aug. 3 with additional comments from Pentagon Press Secretary Brig. Gen. Patrick S. Ryder.
_________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________________________
==========================================================================
18 August 2023
US prepares to evacuate Niger (and where do they want to Re-locate 2 Drone-and-Counter-Terror Bases?
The White House is holding out hope that President Mohamed Bazoum — currently under house arrest — will be returned to power. But threats from other West African states and the U.S. haven’t budged Niger’s coup leaders.
US prepares to evacuate Niger
Washington has refrained from calling the change in government a ‘coup’, which would require it to cut military ties
The Pentagon is scouting northern Africa’s Sahel and Saharan regions for allies “that we could maybe partner up with, and then move our assets there,” Hecker revealed, while declining to name specific countries. “[We] know where we would like the base to be, but more of that’s going to be diplomatic,” he said.
Hecker clarified that Washington had not made a final decision on whether to classify the Nigerien palace guard’s overthrow of President Mohamed Bazoum last month as a coup - a decision that would require it to sever most of the military and security ties the two nations share.
Making that decision could take “weeks or much longer,” Hecker explained, acknowledging that leaving Niger “obviously will have an effect” on US intelligence and counterterrorism work, regardless of whether the exit happened because the Biden administration had rejected cooperation with the US-trained Gen. Abdourahamane Tchiani’s military government or because that government had kicked them out.
- Before the takeover, the US and France had 1,000 and 1,500 troops stationed in Niger, respectively, with several military bases in Niamey and the southern city of Agadez, among other places.
- The US is likely hoping to avoid a repeat of its disastrous departure from Afghanistan, which left millions of dollars’ worth of military equipment and hundreds of Afghan collaborators in the hands of the Taliban.
- ECOWAS members Burkina Faso and Mali have already warned they would view any military move on Niger as a declaration of war against themselves.
- Niger’s military government, which has begun recruiting volunteers to resist any potential invasion, has allegedly warned that Bazoum will be killed in the event of an invasion, according to Western officials.
08 August 2023
Victoria Nuland's Personal Interventions Get Thwarted Again
On Monday, Nuland, who played a role in the events leading up to the Western-backed coup in Ukraine in 2014, revealed that she had personally met with Niger’s current defense chief Moussa Barmou and three other senior commanders to urge them to restore the constitutional order in the country.
==========================================================================
No comments:
Post a Comment