Enlargement will be one of the key issues on the
EU’s agenda in the next ten years.
Maintaining tradition, the European Commission presented today the latest Enlargement Package, detailing the slow and steady progress – or lack thereof – of the Western Balkans and Turkey in their pursuit of EU membership.
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This Working
Paper analyzes the evolution of the EU enlargement
policy as it emerges from the interplay of geopolitics,
state-building challenges, and the EU’s internal dynamics.
Starting from the geopolitical dimension, the
paper discusses the EU’s past attempts at balancing between Russia and the Eastern neighbourhood,6 as well
as the implications of Russia’s war and other conficts
for the future of EU enlargement.
Secondly, it addresses
the challenges related to state-building in the accession countries and the questions that the EU’s internal
developments pose for enlargement.
Finally, drawing
on this analysis, the paper presents three simplifed
scenarios of EU enlargement for the next ten years: one
in which the EU is faced with an increasingly contested
neighbourhood, one characterized by stalemate related
to uncontrolled growth, and one in which the EU enlarges successfully. The analysis is based on interviews
with state ofcials7 and previous literature
THIS WAS JUNE 2022
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