The U.S. soft versus hard data puzzle deepens. . .AND both short- and longer-term anticipation of inflation marched even higher to a level last seen in 1991 (Bloomberg chart below)

 

Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm

·

Apr 25

The US soft versus hard data puzzle deepens: Today’s UMich consumer survey shows that, driven by plunging forward-looking expectations, consumer sentiment fell to one of the lowest readings on record, AND both short- and longer-term anticipation of inflation marched even higher to a level last seen in 1991 (Bloomberg chart below). As discussed earlier, the growing gap between awful soft data and sound hard data could well reflect one or a combination of the following: A lag in the transmission channel between the two, a bring-forward of consumption ahead of higher prices, consumers saying one thing and doing another, and data issues. I suspect, and fear, that it may be mainly a combination of the first two factors.  

 

#economy #markets #inflation #growth