Friday, April 25, 2025

Ukraine can't pay debt

Without a new cash infusion, Ukraine is on track to run out of money later this year. The most realistic way to get a large amount of money is to mobilize $300 billion in frozen Russian assets as a loan—building on an existing $50 billion G7 loan that tapped the interest on these reserves. This would support Kyiv’s budgetary needs for approximately another three years at its current spending rate—with no economic cost to either US or European taxpayers.
 
 
Friday, April 25, 2025

Ukraine fails to reach deal on restructuring $2.6 billion debt, faces default

"Ukraine indicated that it could not accept the Restricted Holders’ Proposal and declined to make any further proposal to the Restricted Holders before the end of the Restricted Period," the Ukrainian government said in a statement after April 15-23 talks in Washington.

Kyiv nevertheless pledged to continue to engage with its debtholders and seek other options for restructuring the debt.


The $2.6 billion sum concerns the so-called GDP warrants, a financial instrument that gives the debtholder the right to additional payments based on the country's economic performance.

"The GDP warrants were designed for a world that no longer exists. Ukraine's modest economic growth in 2023 was not a sign of surging prosperity but a fragile rebound from a nearly 30% downturn caused by Russia’s full-scale invasion," Ukraine's Finance Minister Serhii Marchenko said in a statement.
  • "These financial instruments must not become an obstacle to our recovery. Our objective is to reach a fair and comprehensive solution to this issue."
  1. The warrants were not part of last year's deal to restructure some $20 billion in national debt. 
  2. That agreement, concluded with some creditors in July 2024, allowed Ukraine to avoid default and continue financing its defense against Russia's full-scale war.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that failure to resolve the warrant issue could threaten further debt restructuring, as well as its ongoing $15.6 billion bailout program, the Extended Fund Facility (EFF).

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6:04 PM

Chornobyl isn’t safe anymore... again.

Chornobyl disaster occurred in the early hours of April 26, 1986, in Soviet Ukraine. Nearly 39 years after the worst nuclear disaster in history, Russia’s brazen attack on the $2 billion New Safe Confinement (the sarcophagus enclosing the destroyed reactor) in February 2025 poses a new potential radioactive danger as engineers race to repair the damage. The Kyiv Independent’s Kollen Post dives into why the restoration is not as simple as it may seem.


 

The Ukraine Reparation Loan Solution

February 25, 2025
By Hugo Dixon | Lee Buchheit

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Conclusion
A reparation loan is a legally sound way of mobilizing $300 billion for Ukraine’s defense. 
Much of the money would be spent on US weapons but come at no cost to US or Western taxpayers. 
It would also help convince Putin that Kyiv could withstand a war of attrition while Russia would suffer—enhancing Ukraine’s leverage in ceasefire talks. 
This is strongly in the West’s interests and embodies Trump’s policy of “peace through strength.”

There is no time to waste. With Ukraine suffering on the battlefield, its partners holding frozen Russian assets should swiftly provide a reparations loan.
 
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https://www.reuters.com/graphics/UKRAINE-CRISIS/BONDS/myvmnekabpr/chart.png

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