Defense stocks have been treated as a geopolitical barometer. When tensions rise and military conflict breaks out, shares climb. When headlines cool, the trade fades. It’s a narrative built around procurement cycles and crisis-driven spending.

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The attack on Iran on Saturday by the U.S. and Israel should repeat this pattern for defense stocks in coming days.

OPINION:
U.S. strikes on Iran will likely boost defense stocks. Here’s what will keep the cash flowing even after the conflict ends.

A massive backlog of maintenance and software contracts will ensure recurring revenue

By Jurica Dujmovic
Last Updated: Feb. 28, 2026 at 1:12 p.m. ET
First Published: Feb. 28, 2026 at 5:12 a.m. ET

Saturday’s strikes on Iran by the U.S. and Israel will likely shine an even bigger spotlight on defense stocks.

Shown: Lockheed Martin F-22 Raptor 4001 stealth fighter in file photo.

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But something more structural and long-term has been unfolding, something that looks far less like a one-off weapons sale and more like a long-term service contract. Parts of the defense industry are beginning to resemble subscription businesses, recurring revenue layered on top of a growing installed base.

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Lots of scenarios on @polymarket on how today's developments in Iran will play out.. How this unfolds will depend on the extent, intensity, and longevity of US and Israeli strikes on Iran, . .