A rapidly strengthening “Super El Niño” is developing across the tropical Pacific and could become one of the strongest El Niño events on record.
In the central equatorial Pacific, ocean temperatures have risen to about 3°C (5.4°F) above average, nearly matching previous records. Scientists estimate there is about a 75% chance the event could become record-breaking, with some models projecting even greater warming later this year. As Pacific waters heat up, El Niño can shift weather patterns around the world. Parts of Southeast Asia, Australia, Africa, and India may face increased drought and heat, while parts of the southern United States could experience wetter conditions. Strong El Niño events can also bring warmer winters to the U.S. Midwest.
The event has the potential to disrupt agriculture, fisheries, water supplies, and food production. Researchers also estimate that extreme heat linked to this El Niño could contribute to as many as 451,000 excess deaths worldwide through February 2027.
The event has the potential to disrupt agriculture, fisheries, water supplies, and food production. Researchers also estimate that extreme heat linked to this El Niño could contribute to as many as 451,000 excess deaths worldwide through February 2027.
This map depicts the typical global precipitation patterns associated with El Niño, showing regions that are more likely to experience wetter-than-normal conditions in green and drier-than-normal conditions in yellow during different times of the year.
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