Liquidity is key: Kalshi doesn’t take a side in any of its markets, meaning it needs to constantly find buyers and sellers of an outcome. That gets harder as trades get larger and more customized.
These days, the process can be a bit manual. Ross told me about how he personally called a market maker to help a hedge fund set up a trade on US CPI. But he’s confident the liquidity will come as Kalshi continues to build out all the “pipes and plumbing.”
The key benchmark he’s watching: banks coming on the platform.
“They're doing it because their clients want to. There's palpable demand around that. That's the thing that I think is the key sort of trigger point that I'm looking at,” he said.
Addressing criticism: Gambling. Insider trading. A regulatory gray area. These are some of the common criticisms levied against prediction markets. They’re also things Wall Street typically tries to avoid.
Ross said those questions come up a lot on the Street, but his response is direct.
“If you want to try and do some market manipulation, insider trading on Kalshi, we will find you. We know where you are, and you'll go to jail,” he said.
(I told Ross he was giving off Liam Neeson “Taken” vibes. We’ll see if Kalshi books Neeson for its next ad campaign.)
Sports: The biggest driver of Kalshi’s business is sports. Meanwhile, Wall Street is plowing money into sports ownership. So, as Kalshi looks to grow its institutional base, is there a good fit on the field (or the owners' box)?
In some ways, sports owners using Kalshi makes a lot of sense. Sports are big business, with their media rights fetching top dollar. Having a channel to hedge risk could give owners more flexibility.
Ross said he’s not personally had conversations with officials at professional leagues. He also acknowledged that the incentives can be tricky.
"Neither do you want to be able to say, right, I'm going to put a hedge on that I'm going to get relegated, and then you sell all your players, right? That's the concern,” Ross said.
Are you an executive interested in joining a BI Live Q&A? Drop me a line at ddefrancesco@businessinsider.com.