Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent spoke at the Economic Club of New York on June 23. The event wasn't closely watched, but according to Mohamed El-Erian, more investors should be clued into what Bessent said in his remarks.
The famed economist and former co-CIO of PIMCO wrote in a New York Times op-ed that the global economic order may be shifting and that economists and finance pros are underestimating the market implications of recent policy changes.
"By laying out what until now seemed more like haphazard policy measures, Mr. Bessent put down a marker for how the United States plans to operate in a changing global economic system," he wrote. "In the process, he elevated both the scale and the scope of a systemic change that started in earnest during President Trump's first term, was sustained by President Joe Biden and is accelerating today."
El-Erian said there are a few paradigms under which markets operate. They include,
For investors, traders and economists, the takeaway is that the textbook lessons that have been relied on for decades should be thrown out. They no longer apply because new rules are being written.
El-Erian's thesis centers on the rise of "economic fury," a financial strategy that uses economic maneuvers such as tariffs, sanctions, and investment restrictions as levers of state power.
He attributes this to the severe tightening of economic sanctions that stemmed from Russian's invasion of Ukraine and the US war with Iran, and in his view, this shift marks the start of a new era that isn't going to fade, even as Wall Street has yet to notice what's taking place.
"Until now, many on Wall Street have treated these decisions as stand-alone, ad hoc measures likely to be temporary," El-Erian stated. "Wall Street even went so far as to embrace a term for last year's tariff reversals: TACO, as in Trump Always Chickens Out. Mr. Bessent's speech should force a fundamental reconsideration."
El-Erian said that he doesn't see this shift toward economic fury as temporary, despite Trump's reputation for walking back threats. On the contrary, he added that it is likely the weaponization of economic measures will continue, through both peacetime and war.
"This will be accompanied by a more forceful industrial policy, increased use of export restrictions and mounting pressure on third parties, including the threat of secondary sanctions," he said.
Volatility, dispersion and fragmentation are the top investment themes this year: Mohamed El-Erian
