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Forecast Discussion: Ozone ramped up quite high yesterday and easily reached the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups AQI category at several monitors in the Phoenix area.
We are still under a monsoon weather pattern, bringing daily showers and thunderstorms to Arizona. However, here in Phoenix we're expecting any showers we do get the next couple days to be later in the evening. This will likely give enough time for ozone to continue to reach the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups AQI category today and tomorrow. Therefore, we do have Ozone High Pollution Advisories in effect for today (Tuesday) and tomorrow (Wednesday).
On Thursday, there is potential for earlier storm activity in the area, which may be enough to lower ozone into the Moderate AQI range. Then, on Friday and Saturday we are improving ozone a little further, again due to more storm activity in the area and slightly better ventilation. Of course, the weather can change quickly this time of year, so be sure to check back each day for any adjustments to the forecast.
Looking at particulates, we don't anticipate any significant issues. There is potential for gusty winds from thunderstorm outflows each evening, which could kick up a little dust. However, the surrounding area has received a decent amount of rain recently, which should be enough to prevent any major blowing dust. Therefore, we are forecasting PM10 and PM2.5 to remain in the Good AQI range through the forecast period.
- R. Nicoll
ADEQ Meteorologist
About ADEQ Under the Environmental Quality Act of 1986, the Arizona State Legislature established the Arizona Department of Environmental Quality in 1987 as the state agency for protecting and enhancing public health and the environment of Arizona. For more information, visit azdeq.gov.
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Air Quality Hourly Forecast | Phoenix
Monday Forecast:
Air Quality By Pollutant:
7/19/2021
7/20/2021
7/21/2021
7/22/2021
7/23/2021
Forecast Discussion:
On Saturday, ozone reached the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups AQI category at several monitors in the Valley. However, yesterday barely reached the Moderate category due to all the cloud cover from showers and thunderstorms skirting by the area. Ozone forecasting this time of year can be tricky, as so much depends on the sporadic nature of thunderstorms and the cloud cover associated with them. There is some lingering cloud cover this morning, but that will likely burn off shortly. Sunny skies and light winds today will likely allow ozone levels to increase. Similar conditions are expected tomorrow as well, which will likely allow for elevated ozone levels again. As a result,Ozone High Pollution Advisories are in effect for today (Monday) and tomorrow (Tuesday).Later in the week, we are looking at the potential for more thunderstorms and lingering cloud cover that could prevent ozone levels from building up quite as much. Therefore, we are forecasting ozone to drop into the Moderate AQI category for Wednesday through Friday. The expected weather can change quickly this time of year, so we will adjust accordingly if we expect any changes.
As for particulates, we are not expecting any significant dust. We could still see strong winds from thunderstorms in the evenings that could kick up a little dust. However, with pretty good rainfall amounts throughout the area, it is unlikely we will see any significant blowing dust. Therefore, we will be forecasting PM10 and PM2.5 to stay in theGood AQI range through the week.
- R. Nicoll
ADEQ Meteorologist
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