SPACE JUNK + JUNK VISUALIZATIONS: Anti-Satellite Kinetic On-Orbit Weapons Testing in Space Warfare

There's a competing counter-narrative propaganda war over a recent incident that clearly shows  three divergent perspectives - the first two are thick with conditional vague language alleging threats from the successful destruction of an old outdated Russian satellite to demonstrate the success of a new system.

There's already a huge amount of junk in orbit, so let's take the time to observe some media influence junk in the first two inserts and a very clear non-speculative statement.  

Here

Russian Anti-Satellite Test Produces Dangerous Debris Cloud In Orbit (Updated)

U.S. Space Command has confirmed a "debris-generating event," which now presents a potential risk to the International Space Station.

By Joseph Trevithick November 15, 2021

"Russia may have just conducted an anti-satellite weapon test. These reports are based on the apparent breakup of a satellite known as Kosmos-1408, part of a long-defunct Soviet-era electronic intelligence constellation, which has now created a cloud of debris that could threaten the International Space Station.

It's unclear exactly when this test may have occurred, but the first reports began to appear online earlier today. There has been no official word so far from Russian authorities. When reached for comment, U.S. Space Force redirected us to U.S. Space Command, which has issued press releases after Russian anti-satellite (ASAT) weapon tests in the past. 

However, experts and observers have said that there are indications that this was an ASAT test. 

"ASAT missile strike now suspected. Seradata SpaceTrak database orbital data had Cosmos 1408 in a 487 x 461 km orbit - a bit higher than ISS but not much," read a Tweet from the official Twitter account for Seradata, a private space data-analysis company. "The ASAT strike on Cosmos 1408 would cause some debris to be fired below it ... threatening ISS with a crossing debris cloud."

[...] Space Command accused the Kremlin of carrying out two "direct-ascent" ASAT tests, typically understood to involve ground-launched interceptors, in 2020. Last year, Space Force separately disclosed that it had observed at least one on-orbit ASAT test. That revelation came after reports, including from The War Zone, that a small Russian satellite had maneuvered very closely to an American intelligence satellite and was shadowing it.

VIA @M_R_THOMP

A graphical representation of the position of the Russian satellite Cosmos 2542 with regard to the American satellite USA 245 in January 2020.

That satellite "behaved similar to previous Russian satellites that exhibited characteristics of a space weapon, conducted maneuvers near a U.S. Government satellite that would be interpreted as irresponsible and potentially threatening in any other domain," according to a press release from Space Command in April 2020. A subsequent statement from that command in December 2020 described the event as having actually "demonstrated an on-orbit kinetic [ASAT] weapon."

DIA

An infographic depicting the various ways in which one satellite might attack another in orbit.

If Russia did indeed deliberately destroy Kosmos-1408 in an ASAT test, it would only further underscore how real this threat is now and how it will only become more of an issue as time goes on. Earlier this month, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced that President Vladimir Putin had ordered the development of new air and missile defense system known as the S-550. . ."

============================================================================

This

A screengrab of a visualization, created by Hugh Lewis

Visualizations show the extensive cloud of debris Russia’s anti-satellite test created

It’s going to be a problem for years, if not decades

By Loren Grush@lorengrush Nov 19, 2021, 11:55am EST

The Verge

"Satellite trackers have been working overtime to figure out just how much dangerous debris Russia created when it destroyed one of its own satellites early Monday — and the picture they’ve painted looks bleak. Multiple visual simulations of Russia’s anti-satellite, or ASAT, test show a widespread cloud of debris that will likely menace other objects in orbit for years.

Early this week, Russia launched a missile that destroyed the country’s Kosmos 1408 satellite, a large spacecraft that orbited the Earth roughly 300 miles up. The breakup of the satellite created at least 1,500 pieces of trackable fragments, according to the US State Department, as well as thousands of smaller pieces that cannot be tracked. All of those pieces are still in low Earth orbit, moving at thousands of miles an hour and posing a threat to any objects that might cross their path. Initially, that even included the International Space Station, with crew members on board forced to take shelter in their spacecrafts as the debris cloud from the satellite passed by the ISS a couple of times. . .

And there’s one thing the visualizers agree on: this snake of debris isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. “There will be some potential collision risk to most satellites in [low Earth orbit] from the fragmentation of Cosmos 1408 over the next few years to decades,” LeoLabs, a private space tracking company in the US, wrote in a blog post.

> Two visualizations created by the European Union’s Space Surveillance and Tracking (SST) network and space software company AGI reveal what likely happened in the first moment of impact when Russia’s missile intercepted Kosmos 1408. They both show how the debris cloud grew instantly and spread throughout space. AGI’s simulation also shows just how close the cloud comes to intersecting with the International Space Station, validating NASA’s concerns and the agency’s decision to have the astronauts shelter in place.

[...] For now, Lewis’ visualization relies on simulations based on where we think these pieces of debris might be, given the size of Kosmos 1408 and the physics of a missile striking a satellite. However, the visualization will become more realistic as real-world data from the test trickles in. US Space Command is responsible for tracking objects in space, but it has yet to make any of the tracks from the ASAT test available to the public.

Our best hope for tracking this material comes from a mixture of different sensors — from ground-based radar stations to optical telescopes. However, it’s probably going to be some time before even the most sophisticated trackers know where everything is. . .And as all of these satellites pieces decay in orbit over time, they will continue to pose a risk for the space station and other satellites. All it takes is just one collision with a fast-moving piece of debris to potentially knock out a functioning satellite. . ."

===========================================================================

Russia’s top brass reports on successfully striking defunct satellite in tests

Its fragments will not pose any threat to orbital stations, satellites and space activity, the Russian Defense Ministry reported

"MOSCOW, November 16. /TASS/. Russia’s Defense Ministry reported on Tuesday that a defunct Russian satellite was successfully struck during tests.

As Russia’s defense agency emphasized, the US new space strategy aims "to create an all-out military advantage in outer space and, therefore, the Russian Defense Ministry is carrying out planned measures to strengthen the country’s defense capability.

"On November 15, the Defense Ministry of Russia successfully conducted a test, in which the Russian defunct Tselina-D satellite in orbit since 1982 was struck," the statement says.

As the ministry pointed out, the fragments emerging after the defunct Tselina-D Soviet-era satellite was destroyed during the tests will not pose any threat to orbital stations, satellites and space activity.

"The United States knows for certain that the emerging fragments at the time of the test and in terms of the orbit’s parameters did not and will not pose any threat to orbital stations, satellites and space activity," the ministry said.

The satellite’s fragments were entered into the chief catalog of the Russian space control system and immediately placed under surveillance until they cease to exist," the statement says.

"Earlier, such tests in outer space were already conducted by the United States, China, and India," the Defense Ministry of Russia said."