LEXICON DU JOUR: "Creating a Porcupine" in Taiwan...More 'Strategic Ambiguity' Brisling with More American Armaments

Intro: President Biden’s strong language during a visit to Tokyo this week tiptoed up to provocation, . .

U.S. officials are taking lessons learned from arming Ukraine to work with Taiwan in molding a stronger force that could repel a seaborne invasion by China, which has one of the world’s largest militaries.

The aim is to turn Taiwan into what some officials call a “porcupine”— a territory bristling with armaments and other forms of U.S.-led support that appears too painful to attack. . .

> The president asserted on Monday that the United States had a “commitment” to get involved militarily to defend Taiwan — the third time he has made such remarks during his presidency. And he explicitly said he would take measures that go beyond what the United States has done in Ukraine. While Beijing could see the words as belligerent, they are consistent with the new emphasis in Washington on forceful deterrence.

> On Tuesday, Mr. Biden said in Tokyo that the decades-old policy of “strategic ambiguity” — leaving open whether the U.S. military would fight for Taiwan — still stands. “The policy has not changed at all,” he said.

. . .The United States has been urging allies to speak up on Taiwan in an effort to show Beijing that Washington can rally other nations against China if it attacks the self-governing democratic island. On Monday, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida of Japan said at a news conference with Mr. Biden that the two leaders had affirmed “the importance of peace and stability of the Taiwan Strait.”

U.S. Speeds Up Reshaping of Taiwan’s Defenses to Deter China

May 24, 2022, 8:02 p.m. ET May 24, 2022, 8:02 p.m. ET

Edward Wong and Eric Schmitt

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/24/us/politics/china-taiwan-military.html

WASHINGTON — The Biden administration has accelerated its efforts to reshape Taiwan’s defense systems as it projects a more robust American military presence in the region to try to deter a potential attack by the Chinese military, current and former U.S. officials say.

F-16 fighter jets in Chiayi, Taiwan. Chinese leaders face a complicated calculus in weighing whether their military can seize Taiwan without incurring an overwhelming cost.Credit...Ann Wang/Reuters

Russia’s war in Ukraine has made American and Taiwanese officials acutely aware that an autocrat can order an invasion of a neighboring territory at any moment. But it has also shown how a small military can hold out against a seemingly powerful foe. . .

Taiwan has long had missiles that can hit China. But the American-made weapons that it has recently bought — mobile rocket platforms, F-16 fighter jets and anti-ship projectiles — are better suited for repelling an invading force. Some military analysts say Taiwan might buy sea mines and armed drones later. And as it has in Ukraine, the U.S. government could also supply intelligence to enhance the lethality of the weapons, even if it refrains from sending troops.

American officials have been quietly pressing their Taiwanese counterparts to buy weapons suitable for asymmetric warfare, a conflict in which a smaller military uses mobile systems to conduct lethal strikes on a much bigger force, U.S. and Taiwanese officials say.

...In ramping up its posture and language, the United States is trying to walk a fine line between deterrence and provocation. The actions risk pushing President Xi Jinping of China to order an attack on Taiwan, some analysts say.

A Chinese offensive against Taiwan could take many forms, such as a full-scale sea and air assault on the main island with missile barrages, an invasion of small islands closest to China’s southeast coast, a naval blockade or a cyberattack.

“Are we clear about what deters China and what provokes China?” said Bonnie S. Glaser, director of the Asia program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States. “The answer to that is ‘no,’ and that’s dangerous territory.”“We need to think long and hard on how to strengthen deterrence,” she said.

[    ] “I want P.L.A. officers to wake up each day and believe they cannot isolate Taiwan in a conflict and must instead face the decision of initiating a costly, wider conflict where their objectives are beyond their reach,” said Eric Sayers, a former senior adviser to the U.S. Pacific Command who is a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, referring to China’s military, the People’s Liberation Army, by its initials.

U.S. intelligence analysts have been studying the evolving relationship between China and Russia and the lessons Beijing might be drawing from Ukraine.

PLEASE NOTE: A Pentagon report released last year said China’s military modernization effort continued to widen the capability gap between the country’s forces and those of Taiwan. But the Chinese military has not fought a war since 1979, when it attacked Vietnam in an offensive that ended in a strategic loss for China

[.    ] American officials...have pressed Taiwan to buy weapons systems that they deem suitable for asymmetric warfare against China. The Biden administration recently told the Taiwanese Defense Ministry not to order MH-60R Seahawk helicopters made by Lockheed Martin, and it has also discouraged orders for more M1A2 Abrams tanks.

> Admiral Stavridis said the United States needed to get weapons into the hands of the Taiwanese quickly if an invasion looked imminent, with a focus on systems that would wear down Chinese offensive capabilities.

> ...The pace of Taiwan’s weapons purchases has increased.

Since 2010, the United States has announced more than $23 billion in arms sales to Taiwan, according to the Pentagon report from last year.

In 2020 alone, authorizations totaled more than $5 billion. The sales included advanced unmanned aerial systems, long-range missiles and artillery, and anti-ship missiles.

“That would include smart mines, anti-ship cruise missiles, cybersecurity capability and special forces who can neutralize Chinese advance teams, and air defense systems,” he said.  

> Both U.S. and Taiwanese officials say Taiwanese troops need better training, but each government wants the other to take more responsibility. . .

“The U.S. has encouraged Taiwan’s military for years to talk to countries with a robust defense force,” she said. “Taiwan has sent delegations to Israel, Singapore, Finland, Sweden, some of the Baltic States. Now the situation is far more serious and far more urgent. There’s a lot more pressure.”

John Ismay and Julian E. Barnes contributed reporting from Washington, and Amy Chang

Read More on Biden’s Trip to Asia

•  Trade Policy: The new trade deal announced by President Biden during his trip to Asia is based on two big ideas: containing China and moving away from a focus on markets and tariffs.
•  In an Awkward Spot: Mr. Biden’s remarks about the future of U.S. defense of Taiwan complicate diplomacy for the Indo-Pacific bloc, particularly for Australia.
•  Strategic Intent?: Some view President Biden’s words as just a gaffe, but they are consistent with the administration’s new policy toward the territory.
•  Veering Off Script: Offhand comments that vary from the official talking points, the ones he made in Tokyo, have become a recurring feature of the Biden presidency.