12 December 2022

Jonathan Bernstein on Kyrsten Sinema...Parties matter more than you think.

 That's right? Is she trying to pull off "a Mcmullin?? (that ill-fated Utah strategy used by a fellow Democrat-turned-Indepent).



www.bloomberg.com

Sinema Misses the Point About Party Politics

Jonathan Bernstein
1 minute

"Arizona Senator Kyrsten Sinema declared herself a Marxist on Friday. Not Karl; Groucho. As in, “I refuse to join any club that would have me as a member.” She felt compelled to leave the Democrats, she explained, because of the “broken partisan system” and said that she had “joined the growing numbers of Arizonans who reject party politics.” 

Declaring herself an independent might not make a huge difference within the Senate if she continues, as she said she will, voting and behaving the same way on the job. It’s too soon to conclude how it will affect her re-election chances in 2024 if she runs, or whatever else she plans to do." READ MORE 

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Nov 12, 2022 · SALT LAKE CITY (AP) — Utah Democrats' decision to back an independent rather than nominate a member of their own party to take on Republican ...
 
Sep 7, 2022 · PROVO, Utah (AP) — Campaigning at a park filled with 19th-century pushcarts on a state holiday honoring Utah's early Mormon pioneers, Evan ...

The independent U.S. Senate candidate who won the official backing of Utah’s Democratic Party in this year’s midterm election harks back to Utah’s pioneer days as he explains his quest to unseat two-term Republican Sen. Mike Lee.

“When our ancestors arrived, the only way to make this harsh but very beautiful place work in order for them to survive and thrive was to work together,” said McMullin, who casts his candidacy as an opportunity to ”unite Americans across party lines to protect democracy.”

To defeat Lee, McMullin’s idealized call for cross-party unity will have to do a lot more than just win over Democrats and a few disgruntled conservatives. . ." READ MORE

apnews.com

McMullin loss in Utah raises independent candidacy questions 



By SAM METZ
5 - 6 minutes

SALT LAKE CITY (AP) — Utah Democrats’ decision to back an independent rather than nominate a member of their own party to take on Republican Mike Lee transformed the state’s U.S. Senate race from foregone conclusion to closely watched slugfest.

Independent Evan McMullin, an anti-Trump former Republican best known for his longshot 2016 presidential bid, attracted millions in outside spending in his campaign against Lee. He forced the second-term Republican to engage with voters more than in prior elections and emphasize an independent streak and willingness to buck leaders of his own party.

Ultimately, though, it wasn’t even close. Lee is on his way to a double-digit win.


 

That’s spurring a debate: Did Democrats’ strategy create a blueprint to make Republicans campaign hard, compete for moderates and expend resources in future races? Or does the sizeable loss prove that Republicans’ vice grip is impenetrable in the short term, no matter the strategy?

The answers could contain lessons for both red and blue states unaccustomed to competitive elections.


Some Democrats say supporting McMullin was worth it — it shifted the political conversation, made the race competitive and forced Lee to spend almost double what he spent in his 2016 campaign. But other Democrats say the strategy hurt down-ballot candidates who didn’t have a strong top-of-the-ticket contender to help boost them.

“Building my bench in that sense is going to be so much harder. How do I convince candidates, going forward, that the Democratic Party will support them?” said Katie Adams-Anderton, Democratic Party chair in Utah’s second largest county.

Utah is among the fastest growing states, and Democrats hope they will be able to compete as the electorate becomes younger and more urban. Yet Republicans currently hold both Senate seats and all four congressional seats, occupy every statewide office, and this week expanded their supermajorities in the Legislature..." READ MORE

12 hours ago · The partisan system actually makes lawmaking easier, and voters benefit when they can distinguish between Republicans and Democrats. 

www.axios.com

Sinema's mutually assured destruction

Josh Kraushaar
4 - 5 minutes

Kyrsten Sinema

Photo: Elizabeth Frantz for The Washington Post via Getty Images

Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema's stunning decision to become an independent has triggered the possibility of a blue-on-purple civil war that could cost Democrats a must-win Senate seat in 2024.

The big picture: In the last three elections, Democrats have won unlikely victories in traditionally red Arizona because a critical mass of independents and moderate Republicans couldn't stomach MAGA-aligned GOP nominees.

  • Sinema would have had difficulty winning a primary. But she can win a general election — and might even be the favorite — if no Democrat of consequence runs.
  • But if moderate and progressive Democrats split, her move risks handing the Senate seat to a Republican nominee — potentially a right-wing candidate like Kari Lake.

What to watch: The White House and Democrats' Senate campaign arm will have two crucial decisions to make:

  1. If Sinema runs for re-election, will they endorse her independent candidacy, preempting a serious Democratic challenger?
  2. Or will they rally behind a Democrat like Rep. Ruben Gallego, risking a messy general election that could hand her seat over to a Republican?

If Democrats take the first path, Sinema will be treated like Sen. Angus King, a Maine independent who caucuses with the Democrats and draws only nominal Democratic opposition in his campaigns.

  • Utah Senate candidate Evan McMullin also ran competitively as an independent this year, and his candidacy was tacitly embraced by Democrats.

If Democrats take the second path, party leaders will work all-out to oppose her re-election (assuming she runs).

  • But it's tough to see how Democrats hold the seat if both Sinema and Gallego are on the general election ballot.
  • Sinema isn't conservative enough to secure support from most Republicans, and she'd likely split enough Democratic votes to allow a GOP candidate to win with a plurality.
  • In other words, Sinema is essentially daring Democrats (and Gallego) to get in, knowing it comes with the threat of mutually assured destruction.

What they're saying: "I know this will probably disappoint folks, but I'm actually not even thinking about electoral politics or talking about that at all right now," Sinema said coyly when asked about her 2024 plans on CNN. . .'" READ MORE

3 days ago · The Arizona senator won't say whether she's running for reelection but said in an interview she doesn't expect a change in how the Senate ...
2 days ago · Sen. Kyrsten Sinema announced she will no longer be a member of the Democratic Party, raising questions about how independent politicians ...
3 days ago · Insiders suspect Sinema becoming an independent will be far less consequential in Congress than her reelection campaign.
3 days ago · Sen. Kyrsten Sinema said on Friday she was leaving the Democratic Party and registering as an independent just days after Senate Democrats ...

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