But as the saying goes, all real estate is local, and some areas of the country are more overvalued than others... | Source: Moody's and Redfin

Nationally, homes are the least affordable relative to incomes that they've been in four decades

The states are listed from the least to most overvalued. 

HERE ARE THE SEVEN HIGHEST MOST OVER-VALUED STATES

• Arizona 30.08% over-valued
• Indiana 32,39% over-valued
• Georgia 32.92% over-valued
• South Carolina 47.33% over-valued
• North Carolina 37.66% over-valued
• Tennessee 40.81% over-valued
• Idaho 41.87% over-valued

Are home prices in your state overvalued or undervalued? Here's where all 50 states stand, according to market research firm Moody's.

William Edwards 

Oct 20, 2023, 6:58 AM PDT

• Moody's economist Matthew Walsh says US home prices are 15.7% above their fundamental value.
• Some of the most overvalued states include Idaho, Tennessee, and North Carolina.
• Some of the most undervalued are Maryland, California, and New York.

Moody's economist Matthew Walsh sees US home prices on a national basis as slightly overvalued. 
According to the renowned market research firm's model, national median prices are currently 15.7% above their fundamental value, leading Walsh to believe they'll face another 4-4.5% decline in the coming months. 

• The model accounts for variables like construction costs, household formation rates, and where home prices stand relative to median incomes. 
• Nationally, homes are the least affordable relative to incomes that they've been in four decades, Walsh said. 

But as the saying goes, all real estate is local, and some areas of the country are more overvalued than others. 

1. Below, we've listed where every state — plus Washington, DC — stood as of Q2 2023, according to Moody's model. 
2. We've also included their median home prices as of September, pulling data from Redfin.

Walsh said that he considers home prices in any state where they exceed their fundamental value by over 10% as "overvalued." The states are listed from the least to most overvalued. 

45. Arizona

How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 30.08%
Median home price: $435,700

46. Indiana

How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 32.39%
Median home price: $249,700

47. Georgia

How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 32.92%
Median home price: $367,400

48. South Carolina

How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 37.33%
Median home price: $370,800

49. North Carolina

How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 37.66%
Median home price: $363,000

50. Tennessee

How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 40.81%
Median home price: $368,400

51. Idaho

How much home prices exceed their fundamental value (higher than 10% is considered overvalued): 41.87%
Median home price: $467,000

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