05 July 2024

ANALYSIS: Ukrainian Air Defenses Fail, Russian Ballistic, ‘Hypersonic’ Weapons Get Through

Ukraine's US Patriot Systems Down Every Russian 'Dagger' Missile

Ukraine's US Patriot Systems Down Every Russian 'Dagger' Missile


Ukraine Air Force Reports Patriot Systems Intercept All Russian Kinzhal Missiles.

5 Jul, 2024 - 7:27

Since May 2024, Ukraine's air force has claimed that American Patriot systems have intercepted every Russian Kinzhal missile.

With this weapon system, ardently requested by President Zelensky, the country has increasingly managed to thwart Russian bombardments. Their effectiveness is likely to increase Ukraine's desire for more of these highly coveted anti-ballistic systems. 


In an interview with Ukrinform, the national news agency, Air Force Colonel Serhii Yaremenk stated,

  • "All the Kinzhals launched at the Ukrainian capital since the announcement of the Patriot air defense system being put into service have been successfully intercepted." He added,
  • "Since the beginning of May 2023, no ballistic missile has reached its target in our country's capital. 
  • More than 20 Kinzhals were launched at Kyiv, and all were successfully intercepted."
Kinzhal missiles, translating to "dagger" in Russian, were considered a significant asset for the Russian military in its bombardments of Ukrainian cities. 
However, they have not lived up to their promises in Ukraine thanks to the Patriot systems acquired by Zelensky. The MIM-104 Patriot, manufactured in the U.S. by defense contractor Raytheon, is considered one of the most advanced air-defense systems in the world. Ukraine currently possesses at least two of these systems, one donated by the U.S. in May and the other provided in partnership by Germany and the Netherlands.

The Kinzhal missile, also known as the Kh-47M2 Kinzhal, is a Russian air-launched hypersonic ballistic missile. It was developed by Russia and unveiled to the public in 2018 by President Vladimir Putin. 
This missile was designed to be launched from fighter jets, notably the MiG-31K, giving it significant range and impressive speed. The Kinzhal entered operational service the same year and was presented as a major advancement in Russian military capabilities.
The Kinzhal's capabilities include a flight speed of up to Mach 10, making it extremely difficult to intercept with current missile defense systems. It has an estimated range of about 2,000 kilometers, allowing it to strike long-distance targets with high precision. The missile can carry conventional or nuclear warheads, making it a versatile tool for various strategic missions. Its launch from MiG-31K aircraft, which can operate at high altitudes, further extends its effective range.
Currently, the exact number of Kinzhal missiles in service remains classified, but they are deployed in sufficient quantities to be considered a key component of Russia's deterrence strategy. 
The MIM-104 Patriot is an air-defense and anti-missile system developed by the American defense contractor Raytheon. Production began in the 1970s, and it was officially put into service by the U.S. Army in 1982. Designed to replace the Nike Hercules and HAWK systems, the Patriot has evolved over the decades to become one of the most sophisticated air-defense systems in the world.
The Patriot system can detect, track, and intercept various aerial threats, including tactical ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and aircraft. It uses radar-guided interceptor missiles to engage targets at distances up to 160 kilometers and altitudes up to 24 kilometers. 
  • The central element of the system is its AN/MPQ-53 or AN/MPQ-65 radar, capable of tracking up to 100 targets simultaneously and guiding multiple interceptors. 
  • Before Ukraine, the Patriot proved its combat effectiveness during the Gulf Wars and more recently in Middle Eastern conflicts.
Zelensky has consistently lobbied for more high-tech anti-ballistic systems to be sent to Ukraine, arguing that they are necessary to counter the 3,000 projectiles Russia launches at the country each month.
"Ukraine needs seven systems – this is the bare minimum," the president said in an April address. 

This request was scaled back from an initial demand for 25 Patriot systems, which Zelensky deemed necessary to completely cover Ukraine.
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Third Patriot air defense system arrives in Ukraine

FRIDAY, 5 JULY 2024, 13:15
Third Patriot air defence system arrives in Ukraine
PATRIOT AIR DEFENCE SYSTEM. STOCK PHOTO: GETTY IMAGES
German Ambassador Martin Jaeger has announced the arrival of the third air defence system sent by Germany to Ukraine. 
Source: Jaeger on Twitter (X), reported by European Pravda
Details: Jaeger noted that the third Patriot air defence system from Germany has already arrived in Ukraine.
He said that it would help improve the protection of the population and infrastructure.
The Ukrainian crew has successfully completed the appropriate training to work with this system in Germany, the ambassador added.

Background
Germany announced in May that the Ukrainian crew started training on the third Patriot air defence system for Ukraine.
  • German Defence Minister Borys Pistorius said Germany was transferring a quarter of its own stock of these weapons to Ukraine, including the third Patriot system, and would not be able to provide any more.
Romania also announced plans to provide Ukraine with a Patriot air defence system.

===============================================================
  • In April, Germany pledged to send another Patriot to Ukraine, followed by Biden's approval of the deployment of a second system in June. 
  • At the end of June, Romania also promised to send a Patriot system to Ukraine, although Bucharest's donation included the condition that the U.S. compensate for the difference. "This donation is made on the condition that our country continues negotiations with allies, especially with an American strategic partner, to obtain a similar or equivalent system... At the same time, it is necessary to find a temporary solution to cover the operational vulnerability created in this way," read the announcement on President Klaus Iohannis's website.
  • On Wednesday, the Department of Defense announced a $2.2 billion aid package to upgrade Ukraine's air defenses, including additional surface-to-air missiles for the country's existing Patriot systems. 
  • Given their success in reducing Russian bombardments, it is no surprise that Ukraine is so eager to obtain more Patriot systems to safeguard its skies.

Read more.



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Kyiv Post


ANALYSIS: Ukrainian Air Defenses Fail, Russian Ballistic, ‘Hypersonic’ Weapons Get Through

The Kremlin is ruthlessly exploiting Kyiv’s critical shortage of Patriot air interceptor missiles: Russian ballistic and “hypersonic” missiles on Thursday got through to targets mostly unscathed.
By Stefan Korshak
April 11, 2024, 3:42 pm


Russia’s latest wave of missile attacks against Ukrainian energy infrastructure scored a victory on Thursday, with the Kremlin’s hard-to-intercept “hypersonic” and ballistic missiles punching through mostly untouched through thinning Ukrainian air defenses to hit and damage power plants across the country.
Moscow strike planners during the early hours of April 11 deployed Tu-95 strategic bombers, MiG-31K strike fighters, S-300 surface-to-surface missile systems and dozens of Iran-manufactured Shahed kamikaze drones to attack Ukraine’s north, east and south with waves of flying munitions, some carrying warheads with a half-ton of explosives.

According to official Ukrainian military statements, the break-down of strike weapons hurled by the Kremlin into Ukrainian air space numbered slightly more than 80: 
  • 24 aircraft-dropped X-series cruise missiles, 
  • six strike fighter-dropped Kinzhal “hypersonic” missiles
  • 12 anti-aircraft S-300 ballistic missiles repurposed for ground attacks, and 
  • 40 Teheran-designed flying wing attack drones.
As in past attacks, the strikes appeared to be built on a main effort of cruise missiles carried by the Tu-95 turboprops – the famous “Bear” bomber of the Cold War era – and launched from air space over Russia’s Saratov Oblast.
Parallel attacks by drones and other missiles seemed timed to hit targets simultaneously with the bomber-launched cruise missiles. Ukrainian air defense chat groups reported between seven and 11 Russian Bears were in the air. The Kremlin has used mixed-weapon tactics calculated to over-stress Ukraine’s air defense network since early 2024.
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Kremlin missile or drone detonations were reported at twelve locations across a 900-kilometer (560-mile) swath of Ukraine, from the northeastern city of Kharkiv, less than 40 kilometers from the Russian border to the Lviv region, a few dozen kilometers from the Ukraine-Poland line.     
Of the 84 Russian weapons fired into Ukraine, according to Ukrainian army official counts, air defenders claimed they shot down or forced out of planned trajectory almost exactly two-thirds of the ingressors, including 20 out of 24 of the cruise missiles (each toting a warhead in the 400-500-kilogram range), and 39 out of 40 of the smaller Iranian drones.

Official Ukraine army graphic of incoming Russian weapons confirmed shot down during missile and kamikaze drone attacks across the country on Thursday, April 11. The image reports air defense forces knocked down 18 cruise missiles and 39 kamikaze drones. “Hypersonic” missiles dropped by Kremlin attack jets and ballistic missiles fired from ground launchers weren’t intercepted, Ukrainian army statements said.

 

Air defense officials did not make public how those attacking weapons were shot down. In past battles the Ukrainian military has used a mix of Soviet-era and imported NATO-standard short- and medium-range anti-aircraft missiles to deal with the cruise missiles.
Anti-aircraft cannon like the widely respected German Gephard system, or mobile teams lucky enough to get into the path of an incoming drone and hit it with hand-held anti-aircraft missile machine guns mounted on pickup trucks, have become Ukraine’s main weapons to take on the Iranian drones.

All six of the Kinzhal “hypersonic” missiles hit targets and weren’t intercepted, official Ukrainian published data showed. The three MiG-31K attack jets dropping the weapons flew back to a base in Russia’s Nizhniy Novogorod Olblast without incident.

(Clockwise) MiG-31 attack jet carrying an Kinzhal missile, a Kinzhal missile, and a strike on a target in Ukraine by a Russian Kinzhal missile. War Zone graphic published on March 21, 2022.

 

  • Russian mil-bloggers on Thursday morning were quick to point to at least two successful missile strikes against the Kyiv region Tripolska power plant, a coal- or oil-fired facility usually delivering about half of metropolitan and rural districts around the Ukrainian capital with power.
Social media images posted by the pro-Russia mil-blogger Readovka and rapidly re-published across Ukrainian news platforms showed a massive blaze pumping billowing black smoke into a clear blue sky.  
At least one missile also hit a second power plant in the Kyiv region, Ukrainian news reports said.

Tripolske central heating plant in Kyiv region burns fiercely following a Russian missile strike during the early morning hours on Thursday, April 11. The Ukrainian social media image was published by the pro-Russian mil-blogger Readovka. Kyiv regional authorities confirmed local energy infrastructure had suffered substantial damage in the attacks.

 

  • All twelve of the S-300 ballistic missiles, likewise flying at a speed well beyond the capacity of anything but modern anti-aircraft missiles to intercept, likewise weren’t touched by Ukrainian air defenses, those reports said. 
  • Ten weapons hit local power grid infrastructure causing power outages to more than 300,000 people and forcing the city’s metro to shut down. Emergency response teams were working to fix the damage, a city government statement said.

Russia’s Kinzhal missile, according to its manufactures, flies at Mach 5 hypersonic speed. Combat use seems to show its actual velocities are slower than Kremlin advertisements, but nonetheless, the weapons are difficult to intercept. The slower S-300 still flies at multiples of the speed of sound and in a ballistic arc.

The Ukrainian military’s only missile capable of knocking down a Kinzhal or hitting an incoming ballistic missile, thus far in the Russo-Ukraine War, has been the US-made Patriot.

US halt to all arms supplies to Ukraine, effective since the end of December due to Congressional deadlock over foreign military aid and migration law reform has left Ukraine critically short of irreplaceable American Patriot missiles. The shortages were first reported in early January.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said of the Thursday strikes: 
  • “Russian terrorists again targeted critical infrastructure facilities. 
  • There was another vile missile attack on Kharkiv and the Kharkiv region. 
  • Objects in other regions were also targeted: Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, Odesa and Lviv. 
We need air defense and other defense support, not [Western nations’] turning a blind eye and long discussions.”

Image of Thursday, April 11 Russian missile and kamikaze drone strike locations published by the pro-Kremlin blogger Dva Mayora. According to official Ukrainian sources, most of the depicted hits by the Moscow-supported information were actually weapons intercepted and shot down by defense forces. About 8-10 Russian weapons fired – all ballistic missiles or hypersonic missiles – appear to have penetrated the Ukrainian air defense network and obtained useful hits, Kyiv Post researchers found. 
Damage to an energy facility from falling drone debris was reported in the Odesa region. Of a multi-missile strike aimed at a Zaporizhzhia power station, two missiles were destroyed but one got through.
In comments made prior to the Thursday morning air strikes, Ukrainian Prime Minister Dmytro Kuleba told the Washington Post newspaper he feels like he has been “hitting his head against a wall” trying to convince countries allied with Ukraine to transfer some of their Patriot systems to Ukraine’s military to protect Ukrainian air space.
“Nice and quiet diplomacy didn’t work,” Kuleba, Kyiv’s top diplomat, told The Washington Post in an interview this week. 
“We’ve tried everything, and nothing seems to work.”
During testimony in Congress on Wednesday, April 10 – about six hours before the Russian Bear bombers started launching cruise missiles at Kyiv, Lviv, Zaporizhzhia and cities elsewhere in Ukraine – Assistant Defense Secretary Dr. Celeste Wallander, and General Christopher Cavoli, commander of US Forces Europe, testified to the House Armed Services Committee that the US is doing a great deal to support Ukraine’s defenses.

Kyiv Post graphic showing the theoretical maximum ballistic missile intercept range for a Patriot missile stationed in central Kyiv. The location of the launcher is notional. Actual positions of Patriot systems are a military secret in Ukraine. The graphic shows that the Thursday, April 11 successful Russian missile strike against the Trypylska power station south of Kyiv struck at the edge of a possible Patriot missile protective envelope covering the capital, or just outside of it.

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