06 July 2024

UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT + Reports from other sources

The Institute for the Study of War a US based think tank in its July 5 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin used a meeting with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban on July 5 to oppose a negotiated ceasefire altogether and expressed his commitment to pursuing a "final" end to the war that would achieve his goal of destroying Ukrainian statehood.

Orban's meeting with Putin on Ukraine peace deal is 'appeasement', EU leaders say

Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban, the most Russia-friendly of all EU leaders, met with President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Friday to discuss the war in Ukraine. 
The trip, which comes just a few days after Budapest took over the rotating EU presidency, has been slammed by the rest of the 27-nation bloc, who say it could undermine the EU’s stance on the more than two-year-long conflict.
In this pool photograph distributed by the Russian state agency Sputnik, Russia's President Vladimir Putin meets with Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban at the Kremlin in Moscow on July 5, 2024.
In this pool photograph distributed by the Russian state agency Sputnik, Russia's President Vladimir Putin meets with Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban at the Kremlin in Moscow on July 5, 2024. © Valery Sharifulin / Pool / AFP
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban held talks on a potential Ukrainian peace deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday, angering some European Union leaders who warned against appeasing Moscow and said he did not speak for the EU.
Hungary assumed the six-month rotating presidency of the bloc on Monday. Five days in and Orban has visited Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in Kyiv and formed the “Patriots for Europe” alliance with other right-wing nationalists.
  • Then he went to Moscow on a “peace mission”, days before a NATO summit that will address further military aid for Ukraine against what the Western defense alliance has called Russia’s “unprovoked war of aggression”.
It was the first meeting of an EU leader with Putin in Moscow since April 2022, two months after Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and Orban’s first since then, although the two have met elsewhere.
  • Orban’s trip drew strong rebukes from fellow EU leaders and Ukraine said it had not been consulted beforehand.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that only unity and determination within the 27-nation EU would pave the way to a just and lasting peace in Ukraine”.
“Appeasement will not stop Putin,” she said on X.


Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 60 sources daily, much of which forms the basis of the script. While the Podcast is on hiatus I will make this Draft available here both on my own Substack and The People’s Media for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.

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ALONG THE CONTACT LINE 

GSAFU Morning Report

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 22:00 on July 5 stated that day 864 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine was about to begin.

During the past day,119 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 6 missile strikes, 47 air strikes, 422 drone strikes and 2797 artillery strikes across the positions of Ukrainian forces.

At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continue to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deep into the territory of Ukraine.


Air Force Daily Report

During the day of July 5, 2024, the air defense of southern Ukraine shot down five Kh-59 guided air missiles, which the enemy directed from tactical aircraft.

Seven reconnaissance drones were also destroyed, namely: 4 "ZALA", 2 "Supercam" and 1 "Orlan-10".

During the day of July 5, 2024, the air defense of eastern Ukraine shot down 4 Kh-59/69 guided air missiles. 

The enemy also attacked Poltava region with Iskander-M ballistic missiles, and carried out airstrikes using guided bombs in Kharkiv region.

On the night of July 6, 2024, the enemy struck with 27 Shahed-131/136-type attack UAVs from Crimea and the Kursk region. - Russian Federation

Mobile fire groups of the Defense Forces of Ukraine, anti-aircraft missile units of the Air Force, anti-aircraft defense of the Ground Forces, and electronic warfare units were involved in repelling the air attack.

This night, the defenders of the sky managed to hit 24 "shaheds" in the Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Kharkiv, Donetsk, Sumy, Chernihiv, Vinnytsia, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv regions.



The Khortytsia operational-strategic group

(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )

Kharkiv axis: The enemy conducted 5 assault actions supported by aviation, in the areas of Hlyboke and Lyptsi. The fight is ongoing in two locations in the area of Hlybokoye. The situation is under control.


Kupyansk axis: The enemy tried to advance against Ukrainian positions near Synkivka 5 times in the last day. 4 attacks of the opponent have been successfully repelled by the Defense Forces. One battle continues.


Lyman axis: Russian troops attacked Ukrainian defenders 21 times in the areas of Hrekivka, Makiivka, Nevske, Terny and Serebryanskyy Forrest. 1 clash continues at this time near Nevske. The situation is under control.


Siversk axis: Russian forces carried out 7 assaults in the vicinity of Bilhorivka, Sprine and Vyimka.


Kramatorsk axis: Ukrainian defenders, over the day, repelled 6 attacks in the vicinity of Kalynivka, Chasiv Yar, Ivanivske and Klischiivka. The situation is under the control of Defense forces.


Toretsk axis: The situation in this sector has not changed significantly.


The Tavria operational-strategic group

(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.) 

Pokrovsk axis: The highest intensity of combat remains in this sector. The enemy conducted 38 attacks against Ukrainian defences in this area over the last day in the vicinity of Kalynove, Vozdvizhenka, Novooleksandrívka, Prohes, Yevhenívka, Novoselivka Persha, Yasnobrodivka and Netailove. 13 combat clashes are still ongoing.


Kurakhove axis: The enemy, supported by aviation, 7 times unsuccessfully attacked the positions of the Defense Forces mainly in the vicinity of Kostiantynivka, 2 attacks are still in progress.


Vremika axis: The situation in this sector has not changed significantly.


Orikhiv axis: The enemy made 2 unsuccessful attacks in the vicinity of Mala Tokmachka



The Odesa operational-strategic group

(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)

Prydniprovsk axis: The situation in this sector has not changed significantly.


TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES

Nothing to report.


THE HOME FRONT

Russian attacks kill 12, injure 50 over past day

Russian attacks against Ukraine killed 12 people and injured 50 others over the past day, regional authorities reported early on July 6. The Kyiv Independent reports

Civilian casualties were reported in Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kherson oblasts.

Donetsk Oblast Governor Vadym Filashkin reported that Russian attacks killed 11 civilians and injured 43 across the region. Three people were killed in Chasiv Yar, while five people were killed and 15 injured in the town of Selydove. An attack on the town of Toretsk killed one person and injured three others. Russian forces dropped three guided aerial bombs on the village of Komar, killing one person and injuring 18 others, Filashkin said.

Kherson Oblast Governor Oleksandr Prokudin reported that one person was killed and five others were injured in the region over the past day. Russian attacks also damaged eight homes, a gas pipeline, and critical infrastructure.

One woman was killed and another woman was injured in the village of Khreshchenivka in Beryslav district when it was targeted by Russian artillery fire, Prokudin said.

In Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, two men aged 21 and 61 were injured in an attack against Nikopol, Governor Serhii Lysak said. Russian attacks against Dnipropetrovsk Oblast damaged seven homes and a high-rise building, as well as a medical facility, an industrial enterprise, and a gas pipeline over the past day, Lysak added.

Russian attacks were also reported in Kharkiv, Sumy, Mykolaiv, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, without mention of civilian casualties.


RUSSIAN WORLD

Putin insists his goal is to destroy Ukrainian statehood

The Institute for the Study of War a US based think tank in its July 5 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin used a meeting with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban on July 5 to oppose a negotiated ceasefire altogether and expressed his commitment to pursuing a "final" end to the war that would achieve his goal of destroying Ukrainian statehood.

Putin met with Orban in Moscow and reportedly discussed Ukraine and the possibility of a negotiated ceasefire agreement.

Putin explicitly rejected Russian participation in any meaningful negotiations on a ceasefire agreement on July 4 in a departure from his usual feigned interest in negotiations, and Putin notably outright rejected any negotiated ceasefire in a press conference with Orban on July 5.

Putin stated that an agreement between Russia and Ukraine should not result in a temporary ceasefire since this would allow Ukraine to regroup and rearm and that Russia instead favors a "complete" and "final" end to the conflict. Putin is currently unwilling to accept anything short of the destruction of Ukrainian statehood and identity, however, as his remarks and demands have consistently illustrated.

Putin's rejection of any ceasefire indicates that he is increasingly confident in his assessment that Russia can pursue victory by continuing creeping advances in Ukraine, outlasting Western support for Ukraine, and winning a war of attrition against Ukrainian forces.


Ukraine attacks two oil depots in southern Russia 

Drone attacks have targeted Russian oil infrastructure in Krasnodar Krai, resulting in fires at two oil depots and damage to a cellular tower. The incidents occurred overnight on 6 July, according to local authorities and Telegram channels. Euromaidan Press reports

The strikes on the two oil facilities are part of Ukraine’s larger campaign. In the past three months, Ukraine has intensified its drone attacks against the Russian oil industry, significantly disrupting fuel supplies crucial for the Russian military, while simultaneously decreasing the Kremlin’s export revenues.

Krasnodar Krai’s Operational Headquarters confirmed that unmanned aerial vehicles attacked facilities in three districts: Yeysk, Leningradsky, and Pavlovsky. In Pavlovskaya Stanitsa, fuel tanks at an oil depot caught fire allegedly due to falling drone wreckage. Similarly, in Leningradskaya, a fuel tank ignited “as a result of a UAV attack,” as stated by the HQ.

In Yeysk, Russian air defense systems ostensibly shot down several drones. However, debris from the interception caused “minor damage” to a cellular communication tower, according to the same source.


Russian authorities target VPN apps and VoIP services in latest censorship move

The UK Ministry of Defence in its July 6 Intelligence Update stated that Russian authorities removed VPN apps from the App Store and demanded an end to VoIP services, aiming to restrict citizens’ access to independent information, enhance surveillance capabilities, and continue long-standing efforts to control the domestic information environment. 

The Ministry wrote:

According to Russian independent media on 4 July 2024, at the request of the Russian communications regulator Roskomnadzor, several Virtual Private Network (VPN) applications were removed from the Russian version of the App Store. This follows previous removals of VPN apps in 2022 and 2023. Roskomnadzor gained the power to block access to VPN services without reference to a court in March 2024. Roskomnadzor justified the ban due to the apps containing ‘content illegal in Russia’. This is almost certainly intended to restrict the ability of Russian citizens to access independent Russian, and international media, as well as to simplify the ability of the security services to monitor Russian citizens.

Separately, also on 4 July, Russian media reported that the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB), has demanded that Russian telecom operators stop providing Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) Telephony services. VoIP is increasingly the international industry standard due to its broadband efficiency and the ability to integrate telephony into a unified communications system together with email and video teleconferencing. The implausible official FSB justification is that the measure is meant to reduce instances of fraud. In reality, it is highly likely it is intended to increase the ability of the Russian authorities to monitor and restrict the communications of private citizens and corporate entities.

These two measures are both in line with Russian efforts to control its domestic information environment and limit citizens’ access to information that does not align with government narratives. This effort is longstanding. In 2019, Russia held exercises to temporarily cut off Russian access to the internet and passed ‘Sovereign Internet’ legislation in Ukraine. However, this effort has substantially accelerated after the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, with most independent media being shuttered or forced abroad, and increasingly draconian restrictions on citizens’ abilities to access foreign media. The effect of these restrictions is yet to be seen, as educated urban Russians continue to find inventive ways to get around these measures.


NEWS WORLDWIDE

Le Pen would cut off long range French missile supply to Ukraine

French far-right politician Marine Le Pen said in an interview with CNN on July 5 that her party is against continuing to provide Ukraine with long-range missiles and the possibility of sending French troops to Ukraine.

Le Pen gave a wide-ranging interview to CNN’s Christiane Amanpour on Thursday ahead of the second-round vote in France’s snap parliamentary election, called by Macron after National Rally’s stunning European election results in May.

French President Emmanuel Macron has long supported providing Ukraine with long-range missiles, and France already supplies Ukraine with long-range SCALP missiles, the equivalent of the British Storm Shadows.

Prior to February 2022, Le Pen openly expressed her admiration for Russian President Vladimir Putin and said she did not believe Russia's annexation of Crimea was illegal.

Le Pen told CNN she recognized that Russia has violated Ukraine's territorial integrity and "we have condemned Russia in this matter," but claimed that Russia's illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014 was "more complicated than it is made out to be."

"We have two red lines, sending French troops to Ukrainian territory...and the delivery of long-range weapons that could hit Russia, and therefore make France a co-beligerent in this conflict," Le Pen said.

Le Pen is the president of the National Rally grouping in the French Parliament, but the leader of the party is Jordan Bardella, a 28-year-old member of the European Parliament.

Bardella said on June 19 that he would continue supporting Ukraine if elected prime minister, but also ruled out sending French troops or supplying the country with long-range weapons.


Ukraine calls for ban on Russian athletes at Olympics due to evidence of non-neutrality.

Ukraine's National Olympic Committee (NOC) and Sports Ministry called on July 5 for Russian athletes to be barred from participating in the upcoming Olympics in Paris due to evidence of their support for the Russian military, violating neutrality rules. The Kyiv Independent reports

The Executive Board of the International Olympic Committee (IOC) ruled in December 2023 that Russian and Belarusian athletes will be allowed to compete as Individual Neutral Athletes (AIN) with "strict eligibility conditions."

Under the rules, Russian and Belarusian athletes will not be able to participate as teams nor display any flags or any official identification with either country.

The rules also stipulate that athletes or members of their team who have openly supported the war or have been affiliated with the military or security organizations of Russia or Belarus are barred.

Ukraine has found evidence that some Russians who have qualified for the Olympics as AIN support the war in Ukraine and the policies of Russian President Vladimir Putin, the president of Ukraine's NOC, Vadym Gutzeit, and acting Sports Minister Matvii Bidnyi said in a letter to the IOC.

These athletes "do not meet sufficient criteria to receive the status of Individual Neutral Athlete," the letter read.

Ukraine found evidence on social media that these athletes liked or shared content that called for aggression against Ukraine and glorified the participants of Russia's war. Some athletes have also taken part in propaganda tournaments that glorified the Russian military.

Other athletes had a direct connection to the Russian military, such as canoeist Alexey Korovashkov, who is among the "representatives of the Central Sports Club of the Russian Army and officers of the Russian Army," according to the letter.

This is a "gross violation of the requirements established by the Individual Commission of Neutral Athletes of the IOC," the letter said.


MILITARY & TECH

Russia forced to reactivate decommissioned missile boats due to losses in the Black Sea Fleet

Russia has sent one of its obsolete decommissioned Molniya-1 class missile boats to dry dock in order for it to be recommissioned due to losses suffered in its war with Ukraine. Defense Express wrote

At first glance, such russians actions may look logical in some ways. There are only two missile boats of the Black Sea Fleet left after the sinking of Ivanovets. But on the other hand, the question arises: what ship russian occupiers decommissioned but then changed their minds and brought it back. 

It would appear the vessel is R-71 Shuya missile boat of the project 12417 Molniya-1. The reason it was retired in the first place was that it was the last of this type armed with the outdated P-15M Termit anti-ship missiles (four launchers, maximum range up to 80 kilometers), while the sunken Ivanovets was armed with supersonic P-270 Moskit anti-ship missiles (with a maximum range of 90 to 250 kilometers).

According to russians, the Shuya boat was useful to the Black Sea Fleet for some time as a floating launcher for P-15M Termite missiles. They were used as target missiles during various exercises. In addition, the Shuya was used as a platform for testing the naval version of the Pantsir SAM system in 2021.


That’s it for today’s Draft folks if you would like to keep up with events in Ukraine daily please consider subscribing, its free!

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