04 September 2024

UA POV: Ukraine Braces for IMF Pressure to Devalue Currency, Cut Rates - Bloomberg

 

US Press: Ukraine Prepares for IMF Pressure and Devaluation of Its Currency


The IMF and Ukraine in the negotiations will focus on finding domestic resources – Lush

Wednesday, September 4, 2024, 6:35 PM - 
Photo: Feisbook page of the Magnificent
The IMF's mission for the fifth revision of the EFF Extended Funding Program and Ukraine's representatives in the Kyiv talks will focus on the ability to accumulate domestic resources to meet the needs of the state budget, which have increased due to the duration and intensity of the war. 
About it reported Chairman of the National Bank of Ukraine Andriy Pishny.
"The task is really not easy. We see that work in the domestic debt market will play a significant role in resolving it.
The issue of maintaining a sufficient level of international reserves and maintaining macro-financial stability will also be discussed, he wrote on his Facebook page.
  • The NBU chairman added that it would be important to find the optimal set of monetary and fiscal policy measures.

Vyshny also said that the financial instrument, secured by future income from immovable Russian assets, can provide Ukraine with additional financial resources in 2025.

The NBU team will also hold separate discussions with representatives of the Fund on 
  1. updating the macroeconomic forecast, 
  2. further monetary policy and 
  3. continuing to reform the financial sector. 
  • According to him, as part of the IMF delegation, in addition to the head of the mission in Ukraine Gavin Gray, his deputies Sana Nadim and Trevor Lessard, the permanent representative of the IMF in Ukraine Prishila Tofano and the Deputy Executive Director of the IMF Vladislav Rashkovan.
  • Lushny noted that the mission will work for a week.

Let's remind:

IMF mission started discussions with the Ukrainian authorities on the revision of the $ 1.1 billion expanded funding program.

Ukraine is being prepared to the pressure of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on the devaluation of hryvnia and tax increases. 

The IMF delegation discussed with Krivonos the audit of NABU

Wednesday, September 4, 2024, 20:00 - 

The director of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau, Semyon Kryvonos, and a delegation from the International Monetary Fund discussed the forthcoming independent audit of NABU during the meeting.
About it reports press service of NABU.

Kryvonos and IMF representatives paid special attention to the need to conduct an independent audit of NABU's activities as soon as possible on the principles of transparency and openness.
The meeting also discussed the need to establish an expert institution at the bureau and introduce autonomous listening, which will affect the efficiency of NABU.
The parties also discussed Ukraine's accession to the OECD Convention to Combat Bribery.
  • Kryvonos noted that the bureau is making efforts to achieve the end result, in particular in the context of changes in the legislation on liability for corruption of legal entities.

UA POV: Ukraine Braces for IMF Pressure to Devalue Currency, Cut Rates - Bloomberg

  • Fund is meeting officials this week in Kyiv to review loan

  • Ukraine needs to raise funds to help narrow budget gap

Ukrainian officials are expecting the International Monetary Fund this week to push it to devalue its currency faster, cut interest rates and strengthen its tax-raising efforts to fill the country’s budget gap, according to people familiar with the situation.

IMF staff visiting Kyiv are expected to pressure the war-torn country to pursue those steps to continue receiving financial support, as they undertake a scheduled review of a $15.6 billion loan program, Ukrainian officials with the knowledge of the topic for preliminary discussions with the fund. They spoke before the meetings began on Wednesday and asked not to be identified as the talks are private.

The result of the review could unlock a $1.1 billion disbursement to Ukraine if the fund’s staff determines Ukraine is hitting program targets and has sufficient funds and policies lined up to meet its financing needs. The National Bank of Ukraine, however, is reluctant to let the hryvnia weaken further. The currency has already lost more than 10% since October, when it ended a fixed-exchange rate imposed in the wake of Russia’s full-scale invasion. The move would challenge the central bank’s ability to maintain price stability, the people said. A depreciation, as well as higher taxes, would also be politically damaging as the population is struggling with the fallout from a war with Russia.

The IMF, as well as Ukraine’s central bank and finance ministry, declined to comment. Ukraine has relied on international support for weapons and financing to sustain its efforts to repel Russian forces, which invaded the country in February 2022. A surprise push by Ukraine’s military into Russia’s Kursk region has done little to tilt the war toward a resolution, with Russia dug into Ukraine’s east and raining down a punishing barrage of missile strikes across the country.

Ukraine’s government finances have been supported by about $122 billion in international assistance from the US, the European Union and other allies, as well as the IMF. But the nation still faces a $15 billion budget gap next year, which has not yet been filled by financial commitments from donors, according to recent estimates from the Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal.

To help plug that hole, the IMF plans to urge Ukraine’s central bank to devalue the hryvnia at a faster pace and ease its monetary policy amid moderate inflation, according to the people. These steps are meant to balloon Ukraine’s budget revenues in the local currency and make borrowing cheaper for the finance ministry.

In discussions before this week’s meetings, the people added, IMF also criticized the government’s plan to raise several taxes as being too lenient and urged President Volodymr Zelenskiy’s government to consider increasing a broader range of duties. One possible proposal is to raise the value added tax from its current 20%, they said. On Tuesday, Ukraine’s parliament failed to pass legislation that would increase the so-called “military levy” on personal income and expand it to individuals doing business as well, reflecting the unpopularity of such steps among citizens enduring wartime mobilizations, government corruption concerns, regular blackouts due to airstrikes and higher power prices.

Separately, Ukraine is also slated to get further support from $50 billion in loans funded by profits from frozen Russian central bank assets. The Group of Seven, which is spearheading the effort, is aiming to get funds flowing by the end of the year, although the US and EU are still finalizing details.

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