Since the new push in Russia’s Kursk Oblast in early January, Ukraine has made small gains and managed to capture the first North Korean prisoners of war in the area but experts have raised. . .
Small tactical gains Ukraine’s recent attacks against Russian positions in Kursk Oblast are “very limited” due to severe manpower and resource shortages, Ivan Stupak, a Ukrainian military commentator and former Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) officer, said.
Estimating the push to involve from hundreds to 2,000 Ukrainian troops at most and dozens of heavy equipment, Stupak said that the renewed operation appears to be 70% for political purposes and 30% for military purposes.
The operation appears to be Kyiv’s attempt to inflict “pain” one more time on Russia and provide Ukrainians with “a bit more victories” in the tough time when the front-line situation continues to deteriorate, according to the expert.
He added that it may also be to relieve the situation across hot spots of the war in Ukraine, such as in the Donbas, by trying to force Russia to deploy more troops to the Kursk axis, as well as to possibly disrupt Moscow’s tactical plans in the area. “I expect that it will be maybe a couple of weeks of offensive operation but within Kursk Oblast,” Stupak told the Kyiv Independent. Ukraine currently controls about 450 kilometers of Kursk Oblast territory, which is roughly the size of Detroit, according to Stupak. . .
The overall Russian offensive – supported by North Korean soldiers – continues in Kursk Oblast despite the local Ukrainian attacks on the corner of the salient, making it extremely difficult for the Ukrainians to hold the ground. About 12,000 North Korean troops were deployed to Kursk Oblast, a senior Ukrainian official familiar with the intelligence told the Kyiv Independent in December. Stupak also argued that gaining territory is just one side of the medal, the other one is holding it. “It's a big question because we are using the best of the best soldiers in this land and of the best supplied Western equipment and lots of other directions, such as Donetsk or Zaporizhzhia oblasts, they are suffering from a shortage of shells, manpower, equipped and motivated detachments.”
Monday, January 13, 2025
The Kyiv Independent was born out of a fight for freedom of speech.
It was co-founded by a group of journalists who were fired from the Kyiv Post, then a prominent newspaper, as the owner attempted to take the newsroom under control and end its critical coverage of Ukrainian authorities.
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Center for Defense Strategies is an independent think tank that brings together leading Ukrainian and international experts to address Ukraine’s pressing security and defense issues and develop its respective strategies to advance key reforms.
Almost immediately following the end of the EuroMaidan Revolution in Ukraine in February 2014, Russia swiftly moved to annex and occupy the Crimean Peninsula. Within a couple of months, unrest erupted in eastern Ukraine followed by Russian-backed militias taking over administrative buildings. The events mark the start of Russia's 10-year
November 2023:
Failed counteroffensive with victories in Black Sea
In early June 2023, the Ukrainian military launched its long-awaited counteroffensive aimed at pushing toward the Sea of Azov to cut Russia's land corridor to Crimea. Failing to reach its goals, it was limited to the liberation of a few villages in Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk oblasts, significantly slowed down by Russian minefields and a lack of air superiority and equipment. Ukraine did carry out a series of surprising operations in occupied Crimea and destroyed a number of Russian Black Sea Fleet’s vessels.
A still from a video Ukraine's Military Intelligence (HUR) produced about the operation to regain control of the 'Boyko Towers' oil drilling platforms, published online on Sept. 11, 2023. (Ukraine's Military Intelligence / Facebook)
President Volodymyr Zelensky dismissed Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi on Feb. 8, 2024 following months of speculation about a rift between the two. The general, who had led the country's army since July 2021, was replaced by Commander of the Ukrainian Land Forces Oleksandr Syrskyi as part of a broader military leadership reshuffle.
President Volodymyr Zelensky, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, and Ground Forces Commander Oleksandr Syrskyi during a meeting at a military command post in Kupiansk, Kharkiv Oblast, on Nov. 30, 2023. (President's Office)
Ukrainian soldiers retreated from Avdiivka on Feb. 18 after months of fierce fighting resumed in October 2023. The city, located north of Russian-occupied Donetsk in eastern Ukraine, had been a Ukrainian stronghold for 10 years and a target of Russia’s since 2014. Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said that the decision to withdraw was made to avoid encirclement and to preserve the lives of fighters, however, some of them were captured by Russian troops during the withdrawal.
Ukrainian soldiers on an armored infantry vehicle on the road to Avdiivka, Feb. 14, 2024. (Vlada Liberova/Libkos/Getty Images)
Kateryna Denisova works as a News Editor at the Kyiv Independent. She previously worked as a news editor at the NV media outlet for four years, covering mainly Ukrainian and international politics. Kateryna holds a bachelor’s degree in international journalism from Taras Shevchenko University of Kyiv. She also was a fellow at journalism schools in the Czech Republic and Germany.Show less
Ukrainian forces fighting in Russia's Kursk Oblast captured two North Korean soldiers, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on Jan. 11, "irrefutable evidence" of Pyongyang's involvement in Moscow's full-scale invasion. "This task was not easy," Zelensky said, claiming that North Korean military personnel usually "finish off their wounded" in order to hide
"The U.K. has already invested in the production of our weapons, and this collaboration continues — specifically, funding will be directed toward the production of air defense systems and long-range weapons," Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said.
Exhumation of the remains of Polish victims of the Volyn tragedy buried in Ternopil Oblast, where the village of Puzhnyky was located in the 1940s, will begin in April, Polish RMF FM reported on Jan. 13.
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico said he would like to hold a meeting with President Volodymyr Zelensky in Slovakia near the border with Ukraine "as soon as possible." "Okay. Come to Kyiv on Friday," Zelensky responded.
Germany delivered the first batch of the promised 54 RCH 155 self-propelled howitzers, the country's Foreign Minister Boris Pistorius said during a news conference on Jan. 13. Six out of the 54 howitzers will remain in Germany to train Ukrainian personnel.
The European Union is allocating an additional 140 million euros ($143 million) in humanitarian assistance for Ukraine, the European Commission said in a statement on Jan. 13.
Ukraine's government has approved a measure allowing foreign companies to participate in modernizing military equipment for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the Defense Ministry announced on Jan. 13.
Like Czar Nicholas II, Russian President Vladimir Putin has misidentified his primary foe. Fighting a war of choice, he allows the real menace to his country to gather strength. China, not Ukraine, constitutes Russia’s existential threat. In the Russo-Japanese War (1904-05), Nicholas fought Japan over Manchuria for concessions that
A Ukrainian mopping-up group encountered one surviving North Korean fighter who had set an unsuccessful trap. The soldier attempted to mislead the Ukrainian soldiers and then detonated a grenade to avoid capture, fatally injuring himself, according to the Special Operations Forces.
According to U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, there is no sense in "speculating on the point" that the war may not end in Ukraine's favor under the new administration.
Sakaliene's statement came shortly after the Lithuanian broadcaster LRT reported that thousands of drones, which were to be delivered to Ukraine several months ago, are still in Lithuanian warehouses as their delivery is delayed by bureaucratic obstacles.
Russian forces launched 110 drones at Ukraine overnight from the directions of Millerovo, Bryansk, Orel, and Primosk-Akhtarsk in Russia, according to Ukraine's Air Force.
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius denied media reports that German Chancellor Olaf Scholz blocked a proposal for an additional military aid package for Ukraine worth 3 billion euros ($3.09 billion), adding that a decision on the funding awaits.
"The situation there is extremely challenging, and Ukrainians can help Americans protect lives. This matter is being worked out... We already have 150 firefighters prepared."
"There is no country that can compare to Serbia in terms of the level of support for President Trump. ... And on the other hand, it is a country where President Putin is still very, very popular."
Editor's note: This article is an on-site version of KI Insights' The Week Ahead newsletter covering events from Jan. 13 to Jan. 20. Sign up here to start your week with an agenda of Ukraine-related events, delivered directly to your inbox every Sunday. With 8 eight days left until the
"Ukraine is ready to hand over his people to Kim Jong Un if he can organize their exchange for our soldiers who are held captive in Russia. For those North Korean soldiers who do not want to return, there may be some other ways."
"We offered our assistance to the people of Slovakia during their adaptation to the absence of Russian gas transit, but Fico arrogantly refused," Zelensky said on Jan. 12.
Andrej Danko, co-leader of the delegation, claimed that Warsaw refused to allow their flight to enter Polish airspace and the plane had to be rerouted via Czechia and Germany.
Key developments on Jan. 12: * 'Irrefutable evidence of North Korea's involvement' — Ukraine says it captured 2 North Korean POWs in Kursk Oblast * Ukrainian drone hits large oil refinery in Russia’s Tatarstan, head of Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation confirms * Russia launches double airstrike on nursing home in Kursk
"I do expect a call, at least in the coming days and weeks, so that would be a step, and we'll take it from there," incoming U.S. National Security Adviser Mike Waltz said on Jan. 12 regarding upcoming talks between Trump and Putin.
Aerial reconnaissance footage posted by the brigade on Facebook shows a couple of alleged Russian soldiers dressed in civilian clothes. The Kyiv Independent could not verify the images.
According to the military, around 2,000 people remain in areas under Ukrainian control. Over 70 people are currently staying in the nursing home that came under attack.
Switzerland has expressed its readiness to host a high-level meeting between U.S. President-elect Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, Nicolas Bideau, head of communications at the Swiss Foreign Ministry, told Swiss newspaper Le Temps.
According to Filashkin, Russian troops shelled the settlements of Donetsk Oblast 20 times over the past day, killing one person in the village of Hryshyne, not far from Pokrovsk.
Russia's Foreign Ministry argued the U.S. sanctions represented "an attempt to inflict at least some damage to the Russian economy, even at the cost of the risk of destabilising world markets."
The European Commission plans to begin drafting new sanctions against Russia next week, with the goal of approving the package on Feb. 24 — the third anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
The Week Ahead: Key Developments Impacting Global Politics & Markets by KI Insights
January 12, 2025 10:38 PM4 min read
With 8 eight days left until the Jan. 20 inauguration of Donald Trump, global policy makers are ramping up preparations for what a Trump 2 presidency could bring. Although the incoming administration has hardly been quite (incl. with concerning statements on NATO, Greenland, Canada and the Panama canal), the coming weeks will provide an indication on what is posturing and what is policy – and what decisions need to be made.
Military planning and security, as well as the viability of major global alliances, will be a key theme. On Jan. 13 NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will attend a joint committee meeting at the European Parliament. The session takes place amid questions about the US commitment to European security (a live stream of Rutte’s remarks and session transcript will be available on the NATO website).
Jan. 15-16 NATO’s Military Committee will convene in Brussels. The meeting will bring together Allied Chiefs of Defense and over 20 counterparts from NATO Partner nations to discuss strategic issues and foster cooperation in addressing global challenges. The first session will feature General Cavoli, the United States European Command commander, briefing on NATO’s readiness to deter and defend the Euro-Atlantic region while safeguarding its one billion inhabitants.
Discussions will explore NATO’s ongoing missions and support for Ukraine, including the NATO Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine (NSATU), which has taken on responsibilities to bolster Ukraine’s defense. . .
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