Thursday, February 27, 2025

REUTERS REPORT: Which Countries Are Most Exposed to U.S. Aid Cuts

The U.S. Agency for International Development, Washington's primary humanitarian aid agency, has been a top target of a government reduction program spearheaded by billionaire and Trump ally Elon Musk since President Donald Trump took office on January 20.

Hours after he was sworn in, Trump ordered a 90-day pause to all U.S. foreign assistance pending assessments of efficiencies and consistency with his foreign policy.
Four days later, on January 24, the U.S. State Department issued a "stop-work" order for all existing foreign assistance and paused new aid with the exception of waivers for military financing for Israel and Egypt.

While the government gave an exemption for emergency food assistance and issued waivers for certain life-saving aid, uncertainty around most other programs has put thousands of jobs and millions of dollars’ worth of aid material in jeopardy.

These countries could lose the most, if U.S. stops aid

The effects of shutting foreign aid down permanently could have impacts globally, especially for countries in Africa and the Middle East.

The U.S. has contributed the largest foreign assistance among countries, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

The U.S. provides the largest share of assistance

Net disbursements of official development assistance by OECD developed countries.

Why does USAID matter?

Foreign assistance is provided by different agencies of the U.S. government. The U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) was the primary foreign assistance agency between 2014 and 2024. The agency disbursed, or spent, $314.3 billion out of the total $635.2 billion in this period. The State Department disbursed $175 billion. Obligations are money that was owed.

USAID accounted for half of foreign aid obligations and disbursements

Foreign assistance by managing agency between 2014 and 2024.

Obligations refer to money that was promised but not yet spent, while disbursements refer to money spent.

Note: DoD stands for Department of Defense. Data for 2024 are as of December 19, 2024. Department of Defense reporting is incomplete.

Different regions, different priorities

The Middle East and North Africa region received nearly half of the aid disbursed for the Peace and Security sector.

Israel, Afghanistan and Egypt were the top beneficiaries.
The Trump administration exempted military aid to Israel and Egypt when it first decided to pause all foreign assistance.

The Sub-Saharan Africa region, which has received a bulk of the aid disbursed for the Health and Humanitarian Assistance sectors, may not be so lucky. Due to the sudden freeze in aid, anti-malaria programs in Kenya and Ghana have come to a standstill. They had received $434 million and $334 million respectively to combat the vector-borne disease. The vast majority of the world’s 597,000 malaria deaths in 2023 were African children aged under five years old, the WHO had said in December last year.

Although HIV/AIDS programs have been exempted from the freeze, the uncertainty around the future of the programs has caused widespread concerns. The United Nations AIDS agency has said that more than 6 million people could die from the disease in the next four years if funding is pulled from all programs. South Africa, Kenya and Tanzania have received the most aid to combat AIDS.

Ukraine, which has been dependent on the U.S. to rebuild its economy after its war with Russia, is likely to be affected as well.

It has received more than $28 billion in assistance for Economic Development sector, nearly 90% of the total aid for the sector received by Europe and Eurasia.

[...]

Europe and Western Hemisphere
Economic development, largely due to Ukraine, was the top sector for U.S. foreign assistance in Europe, Eurasia and Western Hemisphere.

Mexico, $3.2 billion

Haiti, $4.3 billion

Ukraine, $43.7 billion

Colombia, $7 billion

Macroeconomic Foundation for Growth

Rule of Law and Human Rights

HIV/AIDS

Rule of Law and Human Rights

1.5

1.02

27.35

1.68

Stabilization Operations and Security Sector Reform

Protection,Assistance and Solutions

Stabilization Operations, Security Sector Reform

8.44

1.22

0.72

0.37

Protection,Assistance and Solutions

Counter-Narcotics

DirectAdministrative Costs

2.4

1.21

0.43

0.27

Stabilization Operations and Security Sector Reform

Peace and Security - General

Agriculture

Counter-Narcotics

0.8

0.35

0.22

Good Governance

DirectAdministrative Costs

Rule of Law and Human Rights

Good Governance

0.57

0.67

0.28

0.14

After Afghanistan, Ukraine has received the most foreign assistance from the U.S.
However, unlike Afghanistan, Ukraine received the majority of its aid from 2022.
Before Russia invaded Ukraine, the country had received just over $4 billion between 2014 and 2021.
However, since 2022, this figure increased by over nine times.
From 2022, it has received nearly $40 billion from the U.S. for all sectors.
Now with aid frozen, non-military programs are severely affected as a lot of them depend on the U.S. for its finances.