- As has been widely noted, Britain is now resuming its natural role as the most important democratic European great power.
- The UK government was quicker than most of the continent to recognise
the Russian threat, and it has done a great deal to try to contain it
through training Ukrainian troops, supplying anti-tank weapons to Kiev
early, warning (together with the US) of an imminent attack in February
2022, and in many other ways.
It is therefore very regrettable that the three Baltic states
of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, which have been even further ahead of
the curve in sounding the alarm about Mr Putin, were not invited to
London. This comes on top of the Paris Summit last week, to which they
were not invited either.
The exclusion is the more unfortunate because we Europeans (rightly) objected to the Trump’s administration’s exclusion not only of the Ukrainians but also of “Europe” at the discussions in Saudi Arabia which sparked the current crisis. Unsurprisingly, all three leaders of the Baltic states were reported to be “very upset” at their treatment.- Sir
Keir Starmer tried as best he could to mitigate the damage by convening
a hasty online conference with the leaders of the three Baltic States.
- According to the Asta Skaisgiryte, the chief advisor to the Lithuanian
President Gitanas Nauseda, the Prime Minister apologised to them and
promised that “next time such things will be avoided”.
- What is worrying,
though, is the absence of any satisfactory explanation for their
absence in the first place.
- At the very least the Estonian leader could
have represented the other two.
Of course, not all European
countries could be invited. It made little sense, for example, to bring
in neutral Malta, Austria and the Republic of Ireland. It would also
have been silly to have Hungary’s Victor Orban who is effectively a
Russian ally. But why have Spain, which spends well short of the Nato
target of 2 per cent of GDP on defence, and has shown relatively little
interest in confronting Russia? Why the Czechs, who do contribute a lot
to Ukraine, but are less significant than the Baltics?
The offense is compounded by the fact that the UK knows the Baltic states well. British troops have been deployed in Estonia as part of the deterrence mission ever since Putin’s illegal annexation of Crimea. The Baltic is literally Britain’s front line in the east under the NATO Article Five guarantee. - Moreover, the Estonians
are world leaders in national resilience and drone warfare development.
- They are major suppliers of the Ukrainian war effort.
- Why would we not
want their expertise at the summit?
Ever since 1940, when Estonia,
Latvia and Lithuania were occupied by the Soviet Union, following the
Hitler-Stalin pact, the three Baltic States have feared abandonment by
the West. This is not what is happening here, but if we want to avoid
giving that impression greater sensitivity will be required in the
future.
The whole episode shows that not only the British public
but also the British national security establishment needs more
knowledge and more understanding of the Baltic. It is a region with
which Britain has been closely connected for hundreds of years and with
which we are now bound up in a community of fate. The United Kingdom is
right to captain the defence of Europe, but we need to bring our best
players with us.
Brendan Simms, together with Rt Hon
Charles Clarke, heads the Baltic Geopolitics Programme at the Centre for
Geopolitics, University of Cambridge
It is therefore very regrettable that the three Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, which have been even further ahead of the curve in sounding the alarm about Mr Putin, were not invited to London. This comes on top of the Paris Summit last week, to which they were not invited either.
The exclusion is the more unfortunate because we Europeans (rightly) objected to the Trump’s administration’s exclusion not only of the Ukrainians but also of “Europe” at the discussions in Saudi Arabia which sparked the current crisis. Unsurprisingly, all three leaders of the Baltic states were reported to be “very upset” at their treatment.Of course, not all European countries could be invited. It made little sense, for example, to bring in neutral Malta, Austria and the Republic of Ireland. It would also have been silly to have Hungary’s Victor Orban who is effectively a Russian ally. But why have Spain, which spends well short of the Nato target of 2 per cent of GDP on defence, and has shown relatively little interest in confronting Russia? Why the Czechs, who do contribute a lot to Ukraine, but are less significant than the Baltics?
The offense is compounded by the fact that the UK knows the Baltic states well. British troops have been deployed in Estonia as part of the deterrence mission ever since Putin’s illegal annexation of Crimea. The Baltic is literally Britain’s front line in the east under the NATO Article Five guarantee.Ever since 1940, when Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania were occupied by the Soviet Union, following the Hitler-Stalin pact, the three Baltic States have feared abandonment by the West. This is not what is happening here, but if we want to avoid giving that impression greater sensitivity will be required in the future.
The whole episode shows that not only the British public but also the British national security establishment needs more knowledge and more understanding of the Baltic. It is a region with which Britain has been closely connected for hundreds of years and with which we are now bound up in a community of fate. The United Kingdom is right to captain the defence of Europe, but we need to bring our best players with us.
Brendan Simms, together with Rt Hon Charles Clarke, heads the Baltic Geopolitics Programme at the Centre for Geopolitics, University of Cambridge