Wednesday, January 28, 2026

What happens to workers whose jobs are most exposed to AI?

May be a graphic of text that says 'Research, analysis paint a new picture of Al's potential impacts on the workforce. Relationship between exposure and adaptive capacity across occupations. Lowest vulnerability (<0.1) Low /ulnerability 0.3) Total Employment vulnerability 0.6) Highest vulnerability (<0.6) 40 1.5M 4M Adaptive Capacity Index 1.0 Dentists Software developer 0.8 0.6 driverse magistrates, workers 0.4 Customer representatives Shipping, 0.2 ventory Median Receptionists Information Cashiers general 0.0 0.00 Secretaries administrative strative 0.10 Median 0.20 Source: Manning Scatterp 0.30 0.40 0.50 madical dexecutive 0.60 0.70 Aguirre (2026) correlation between Eloundou (2024) wherablity waherabilty capacity. AIExposure Index higher expoBure combined 0.80 eжpc Adaptivvo 0.90 compasite occupation-leve adaptive'  

What happens to workers whose jobs are most exposed to AI?

New research finds that up to 6.1 million U.S. workers could struggle to adapt after losing a job to AI. 
  • Mark Muro and Shriya Methkupally find that vulnerability is especially high among administrative and clerical workers in smaller metro areas and college towns—particularly in the Mountain West and Midwest—where skill transferability and local reemployment options are limited.
  • Their research helps identify where workers may face longer job searches and bigger earnings losses, and how policymakers can better target support.

 

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