Analysts and officials warned against assuming that a frozen conflict translates to geopolitical stability or less suffering among civilians caught in the disputed territories. The Korean peninsula and India-Pakistan are both now nuclear flashpoints as a result of decisions made by governments involved in the decades since the fights first began. . .“Once you get past few months or a year, these wars tend to last years,” said Benjamin Jensen of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, who has analyzed the historical data.
Ukraine could join ranks of ‘frozen’ conflicts, U.S. officials say
How Ukraine could become the next South Korea.
U.S. officials are planning for the growing possibility that the Russia-Ukraine war will turn into a frozen conflict that lasts many years — perhaps decades — and joins the ranks of similar lengthy face-offs in the Korean peninsula, South Asia and beyond.
The options discussed within the Biden administration for a long-term “freeze” include where to set potential lines that Ukraine and Russia would agree not to cross, but which would not have to be official borders. The discussions — while provisional — have taken place across various U.S. agencies and in the White House.
It’s a scenario that may prove the most realistic long-term outcome given that neither Kyiv nor Moscow appear inclined to ever admit defeat. It’s also becoming increasingly likely amid the growing sense within the administration that an upcoming Ukrainian counteroffensive won’t deal a mortal blow to Russia.
A frozen conflict — in which fighting pauses but neither side is declared the victor nor do they agree that the war is officially over — also could be a politically palatable long-term result for the United States and other countries backing Ukraine.
It would mean the number of military clashes would fall, the costs of supporting Kyiv also likely would drop, and public attention to the war would wane.
“We are planning for the long term, whether it looks frozen or thawed,” said a U.S. official familiar with the Biden administration’s discussions on Ukraine. The official said such planning is a growing focus of the administration, whereas in past months “it was all about the urgent and short-term.”
Two other U.S. officials and a former Biden administration official confirmed that an extended freeze in fighting is one possibility for which the U.S. is preparing. U.S. officials also are thinking through the long-term security ties Washington will have with Kyiv, as well as Ukraine’s relationship with the NATO military alliance.“There’s a school of thought that says, ‘Oh, the Ukrainians have to have [the city of] Mariupol and Azov Sea access.’ There’s others less hung up about the placement of the lines as long as Ukraine is secure going into the future,” the former administration official said, describing the internal conversations.
Such discussions remain in early stages, with the U.S. officials stressing that the war will remain hot for quite some time and that the Biden administration is intent on providing Ukraine with the weapons and support it needs to push the Russians out of as much territory as possible.
Still, even the suggestion of such planning could undermine Ukrainian leaders’ confidence in America’s continued commitment to their cause, especially given agitation among some Republicans to lessen support for Kyiv.
A fifth person, a senior Biden administration official speaking on behalf of the White House, said an array of contingency plans are being weighed, but the situation is fluid and the only safe prediction is that Russia will not conquer Ukraine. Like others interviewed, the official was granted anonymity to describe sensitive issues.
While many U.S. officials avoid publicly talking about how the Russia-Ukraine conflict will evolve, Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. Mark Milley has repeatedly predicted that it will end in negotiations, not a military victory for either side.And the makeup of recent military aid packages to Ukraine reflects the Biden administration’s shift to a longer-term strategy, a Defense Department official said.
The amount of equipment sent directly from existing U.S. stockpiles has steadily diminished over the past few months, while the packages of aid used to purchase new weapons from industry — a process that can take months to years — has increased.
The Biden administration recently transferred $300 million worth of weapons from existing U.S. stockpiles, primarily ammunition, while providing $1.2 billion to purchase more complex weapons, such as air defenses, from industry.At the moment, Ukraine is preparing a counteroffensive against Russia, although the timing remains unclear. In recent days, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has suggested the counteroffensive would be delayed because Ukraine still needed more weapons from its Western partners, while also saying “the first important steps will be taken soon.”
U.S. officials expect fighting to continue even after the counteroffensive.
In the medium-term, many expect a stalemate, during which fighting continues but neither side gains much ground, or a war of attrition, which involves both sides trying to wreak massive losses of personnel and equipment on the other in the hopes the adversary will collapse..."
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