Friday, January 17, 2025
17 January 2025
Biden administration secretly funded Ukraine's drone industry | NYT reports
Moscow has repeatedly condemned the West’s continued military aid to Ukraine, arguing that it makes it party to the conflict. Russia has also argued that no amount of Western aid will change the ultimate outcome or prevent Moscow from achieving the goals of its military operation.
- Ukrainian officials emphasize that ramped-up drone production and advanced American technology could become a game-changer, counterbalancing Russia’s numerical advantage in firepower and personnel.
- However, final success hinges on whether these investments translate into battlefield breakthroughs and whether Western supporters, including the U.S., continue their covert and overt support at current levels.
Biden administration secretly funded Ukraine's drone industry, NYT reports
U.S. intelligence officers reportedly assisted in advancing Ukraine's drone capabilities, helping to design a new generation of drones intended to revolutionize modern warfare.
While much of the U.S. aid for Ukraine has been publicly disclosed — covering missiles, air defense systems, tanks, and training — support for the drone sector has largely remained secret.
The declassified data reveals that the U.S. allocated funds for drone manufacturing and facilitated partnerships between U.S. tech companies and Ukrainian drone producers.
These efforts intensified during preparations for Ukraine's 2023 counteroffensive, which struggled to achieve significant territorial gains, reportedly due to Russia's extensive drone use. In response, the U.S. accelerated aid to Ukraine's drone sector.
Officials reportedly believe this investment has made Ukrainian drones more effective and deadly. Ukrainian maritime drones, credited with destroying 25% of Russia's Black Sea Fleet, and aerial drones deployed on the front lines have slowed Russian advances in eastern Ukraine.
By the end of 2024, Ukraine had delivered over 200,000 domestically produced drones to frontline units, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said in December.
While much of the U.S. aid for Ukraine has been publicly disclosed — covering missiles, air defense systems, tanks, and training — support for the drone sector has largely remained secret.
The declassified data reveals that the U.S. allocated funds for drone manufacturing and facilitated partnerships between U.S. tech companies and Ukrainian drone producers.
These efforts intensified during preparations for Ukraine's 2023 counteroffensive, which struggled to achieve significant territorial gains, reportedly due to Russia's extensive drone use. In response, the U.S. accelerated aid to Ukraine's drone sector.
Officials reportedly believe this investment has made Ukrainian drones more effective and deadly. Ukrainian maritime drones, credited with destroying 25% of Russia's Black Sea Fleet, and aerial drones deployed on the front lines have slowed Russian advances in eastern Ukraine.
By the end of 2024, Ukraine had delivered over 200,000 domestically produced drones to frontline units, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said in December.
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US secretly invested in Ukraine’s drone industry – NYT
Declassified information has confirmed Washington’s spooks bolstered Kiev’s UAV program
The US played a crucial but secret role in helping Ukraine develop its drone industry following Kiev's disastrous counteroffensive in 2023, officials have told the New York Times, citing information that has been declassified by the administration of President Joe Biden.
US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan also said in a statement on Thursday that US involvement had “a real strategic impact” on the battlefield, as drones have become central to Ukraine’s defense strategy.
- Washington reportedly provided financial and technical assistance to Kiev's drone program, the sources have told the outlet.
- While the US had publicly admitted sending billions of dollars in missiles, air defense systems, tanks and training, details about support in other areas remained under wraps.
US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan also said in a statement on Thursday that US involvement had “a real strategic impact” on the battlefield, as drones have become central to Ukraine’s defense strategy.
- The funding reportedly began after Kiev’s first counteroffensive in fall 2022 and intensified after the 2023 effort, which ultimately failed due to Russia’s extensive defensive use of mines, artillery, and drones.
- US officials reportedly said that the losses incurred by Kiev pushed them to rapidly increase support to Ukrainian drone makers.
People familiar with the matter told the New York Times that the US effort also included sending American intelligence officials to Ukraine to help build its drone program.
However, CIA Director William J. Burns has so far only indirectly acknowledged this, stating earlier this week that US intelligence support extended beyond information-sharing to assisting with key defense systems.
Last month, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken revealed that Washington has provided around $100 billion in financial aid and military assistance to Kiev since the escalation of the Ukraine conflict in 2022. Kiev’s other backers, meanwhile, have “spent about $150 billion,” he said.
Moscow has repeatedly condemned the West’s continued military aid to Ukraine, arguing that it makes it party to the conflict. Russia has also argued that no amount of Western aid will change the ultimate outcome or prevent Moscow from achieving the goals of its military operation.
Russian Army Claims Liberation of Over 60% of Occupied Kursk Territory
The United States has been covertly investing in Ukraine’s drone manufacturing sector, helping Kyiv produce more advanced and lethal unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) for its ongoing war with Russia
U.S. Funding and Strategic Guidance- Amount: $1.5 billion was allocated by the U.S. in September 2023, as part of a broader effort to stimulate local production.
- Key Figures: Jake Sullivan, National Security Advisor to President Joe Biden, stated that expanding Ukraine’s drone capabilities “has a real strategic impact” on the war.
Shifting Focus to Drones- After Ukraine’s 2022 fall counteroffensive revealed the limits of its conventional hardware, the U.S. ramped up support for drone production.
- Intelligence officers have been placed on the ground in Ukraine to advise, and American tech companies have been introduced to Ukrainian drone manufacturers to facilitate knowledge transfer and partnerships.
Lessons from the 2023 Counteroffensive
The U.S. move to strengthen Ukraine’s drone arsenal accelerated after the difficulties faced by Ukrainian forces during the 2023 counteroffensive:- Russian Defensive Drones: As Ukrainian troops advanced through minefields, Russian UAVs targeted Western-supplied tanks and armored vehicles, causing significant losses.
- Policy Shift: The shortcomings experienced on the battlefield underscored the importance of aerial reconnaissance and strike drones, leading Washington to increase assistance in accelerating UAV development programs.
Impact on the Battlefield
Strategic Importance of UAVs- American officials describe drones as “increasingly central” to Ukraine’s resistance and to modern warfare in general.
- Both recon and strike drones are essential in spotting enemy positions, defending mobile units, and conducting targeted assaults on Russian equipment.
Ukrainian Ambitions- In December 2023, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced plans to produce up to a million drones in 2024.
- The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine also reported that 96.2% of the UAVs used by the Defense Forces in 2024 were developed and manufactured domestically.
U.S. Collaboration- American funding helps Ukrainian manufacturers incorporate advanced components and software.
- Ukrainian drone teams gain access to U.S. technology, from sensors to secure communication modules, thereby enhancing precision and reliability.
Outlook and Future Developments- Continued Growth: The U.S. is likely to maintain or increase support for Ukraine’s drone industry, as both intelligence and resources continue to flow into the program.
- Broadening Tech Partnerships: More American firms may follow suit, forging partnerships with Ukrainian drone startups, R&D labs, and manufacturing facilities.
- Countering Russian Adaptations: Even as Ukraine’s capabilities grow, Russia is adapting its own UAVs and air defenses. The need for ongoing innovation—and consistent outside assistance—remains pressing.
Additional Context- Why the Secrecy: Washington’s quiet approach stems from fear of escalating tensions with Russia and from desire to avoid revealing classified technological or logistical methods.
- Scale of Support: Since 2022, the U.S. has committed tens of billions in assistance to Ukraine, with drone production representing a growing piece of that package.
- Overall Strategy: The U.S. shift—focusing less on large conventional systems and more on UAVs—reflects a view that drones are central to modern conflict, especially in areas with extensive fortifications and contested airspace.
- Amount: $1.5 billion was allocated by the U.S. in September 2023, as part of a broader effort to stimulate local production.
- Key Figures: Jake Sullivan, National Security Advisor to President Joe Biden, stated that expanding Ukraine’s drone capabilities “has a real strategic impact” on the war.
- After Ukraine’s 2022 fall counteroffensive revealed the limits of its conventional hardware, the U.S. ramped up support for drone production.
- Intelligence officers have been placed on the ground in Ukraine to advise, and American tech companies have been introduced to Ukrainian drone manufacturers to facilitate knowledge transfer and partnerships.
Lessons from the 2023 Counteroffensive
The U.S. move to strengthen Ukraine’s drone arsenal accelerated after the difficulties faced by Ukrainian forces during the 2023 counteroffensive:
- Russian Defensive Drones: As Ukrainian troops advanced through minefields, Russian UAVs targeted Western-supplied tanks and armored vehicles, causing significant losses.
- Policy Shift: The shortcomings experienced on the battlefield underscored the importance of aerial reconnaissance and strike drones, leading Washington to increase assistance in accelerating UAV development programs.
Impact on the Battlefield
Strategic Importance of UAVs
- American officials describe drones as “increasingly central” to Ukraine’s resistance and to modern warfare in general.
- Both recon and strike drones are essential in spotting enemy positions, defending mobile units, and conducting targeted assaults on Russian equipment.
- In December 2023, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced plans to produce up to a million drones in 2024.
- The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine also reported that 96.2% of the UAVs used by the Defense Forces in 2024 were developed and manufactured domestically.
- American funding helps Ukrainian manufacturers incorporate advanced components and software.
- Ukrainian drone teams gain access to U.S. technology, from sensors to secure communication modules, thereby enhancing precision and reliability.
Outlook and Future Developments
- Continued Growth: The U.S. is likely to maintain or increase support for Ukraine’s drone industry, as both intelligence and resources continue to flow into the program.
- Broadening Tech Partnerships: More American firms may follow suit, forging partnerships with Ukrainian drone startups, R&D labs, and manufacturing facilities.
- Countering Russian Adaptations: Even as Ukraine’s capabilities grow, Russia is adapting its own UAVs and air defenses. The need for ongoing innovation—and consistent outside assistance—remains pressing.
Additional Context
- Why the Secrecy: Washington’s quiet approach stems from fear of escalating tensions with Russia and from desire to avoid revealing classified technological or logistical methods.
- Scale of Support: Since 2022, the U.S. has committed tens of billions in assistance to Ukraine, with drone production representing a growing piece of that package.
- Overall Strategy: The U.S. shift—focusing less on large conventional systems and more on UAVs—reflects a view that drones are central to modern conflict, especially in areas with extensive fortifications and contested airspace.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 16, 2025 | Institute for the Study of War
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