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Moscow is losing money and partners: how soon the new EU sanctions will “cool” Russia
On July 18, the ambassadors of the European Union approved the 18th package of sanctions against Russia, after a week-long blockade by Slovakia.
- This package has introduced a ceiling on prices for Russian oil, which is 15% below the average market price, which means a decline to about $ 47.6 per barrel.
- In addition, a ban on transactions related to the Nord Stream project is introduced.
New package of EU sanctions: 105 ships, ban on transactions and sanctions against Russian banks
In June 2025, the European Commission presented the 18th package of sanctions against Russia, including the ban on transactions with Nord Stream and Nord Stream 2 projects, a decrease in the ceiling on oil prices and sanctions against banks and the shadow fleet.
On July 17, it became known that Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico agreed with the head of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen on guarantees for Slovakia on gas prices. Further blocking of the sanctions package would be counterproductive and would harm Slovak interests, he said.
- The new sanctions target the Russian shadow fleet, which is used to bypass the oil embargo. 105 courts will be added to the sanctions list.
- Imports of petroleum products produced from Russian crude oil, if it was processed in third countries (except Canada, the United Kingdom, the United States, Switzerland and Norway) are also prohibited.
- The proposal also indicates the inclusion of 22 new banks in the list of restrictions SWIFT, as well as a ban on transactions of the Russian Direct Investment Fund.
The approval of the 18-th package of sanctions was confirmed by the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaya Kallas.
“The EU has just approved one of the toughest packages of sanctions against Russia today. “Europe will not stop supporting Ukraine until Russia stops this war,” she said.
The formal approval of the package of sanctions will be held at a meeting of the EU Council on general issues.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy commented on the approval of the 18-th package of sanctions, calling it the necessary and result of joint work of Ukraine and partners. He stressed that the package of sanctions hits the weak points of the economy of the aggressor country - the tanker fleet, shadow companies and oil revenues.
Zelensky also noted that these measures are a timely response to Russia’s new terrorist attacks on Ukrainian cities and villages. The President of Ukraine announced the synchronization of European sanctions with Ukrainian legislation.
“Separately, I want to note the decision of the European Union to ban any transactions related to the gas pipelines of the Nord Stream system, the construction of which was part of Putin’s preparations for a full-scale war. The entire infrastructure of the Russian war should be blocked,” Zelensky said.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sibiga agreed that the 18-th package of sanctions is one of the strongest. According to him, the deprivation of oil revenues of the Russian Federation is crucial for the cessation of aggression.
“Ukraine continues to cooperate with the EU and partners within the framework of the sanctions coalition to deprive the Russian military financing machine, to force Russia to agree to a full and unconditional ceasefire and end the war against Ukraine,” Sibiga said.
India will be able to compensate for the shortage of Russian oil with supplies from other countries. This statement was made by the Minister of Oil and Natural Gases of India Hardy Singh Puri on July 17. This was a response to the ultimatum of US President Donald Trump, who warned of the introduction of secondary sanctions against countries that continue to buy Russian oil if Putin does not stop fighting within 50 days. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte also threatened U.S. sanctions for India, Brazil and China for doing business with Russia.
“I think the price of oil will decline. It will decrease only because more oil will be available on the international market. The world market receives more oil from the Western Hemisphere, that is, from countries such as Brazil, Guyana, Canada, which are not even members of OPEC. Therefore, my answer is that I am not worried at all. If something happens, we will deal with it,” said Hardep Singh Puri.
- At the moment, India imports about 40% of oil from Russia. Next are Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
- In the event of the introduction of US sanctions, India plans to reduce the share of Russian imports to 1-2%, as it was before the war in Ukraine, said the Chairman of the “Indian oil Corporation” Arvindar Singh Sahni.
Financial isolation of Russia in the assessments of experts
- Why is the 18-th package of EU sanctions against Russia considered the toughest?
- How did Slovakia influence the adoption of sanctions, and how was it convinced?
- What restrictions have been imposed against the Russian oil sector and the Nord Stream?
- What will strike the Russian economy new measures: restrictions on tankers, SWIFT, technology?
These and other questions on the TV channel FREEDOM responded:
- Dmitry Levus, political scientist-internationalist and expert of the United Ukraine Center;
- Igor Petrenko, Doctor of Political Sciences;
- Gennady Ryabtsev, energy expert.
DMITRY LEVUS: Slovakia realized that it is possible not only to get something from the EU, but also to lose a lot
- Indeed, this package is very powerful and, probably, it really was stronger, since it is complex. The price ceiling for Russian oil, which was previously $ 60 per barrel, is now $ 47.6, with the possibility of revising this price.
Ukraine has talked about this for a long time, the Yermak-McFolk group worked, which raised this issue. The Ukrainian proposal, by the way, was about $ 40. Nevertheless, now there is a ban on oil products from recycled Russian oil in third countries, which is also an important and significant point. In the oil sector, we are also talking about expanding the list of tankers on which sanctions are imposed, the so-called shadow fleet. However, this is not quite a shadow fleet, there are controversial points, perhaps it would be possible to approach more radically.
It is also worth noting the financial sector, where the number of Russian banks disconnected from SWIFT has increased. This greatly complicates the life of Russia. The Russian Direct Investment Fund, which has actually become a political tool for Moscow’s communication with the world, has also come under sanctions, which is an indication of the importance of this package.
In addition, there are a number of sanctions against companies from different countries that help Russia circumvent sanctions, as well as a ban on operations to purchase technologies that can be used to produce weapons or machine tools. This extended list is very indicative.
The most important point is, of course, the energy sector. What seemed long unsolvable finally moved from a dead point. The resistance of those who did not want change concerns the energy sector. And this, first of all, has to do with Slovakia.
The fact that Slovakia’s resistance was suppressed is also a landmark event. Although, of course, it would be better if this package of sanctions was adopted earlier, when the issue was just beginning to rise. If this had happened a few months ago, these sanctions would have worked.
Now it will be necessary to implement and synchronize with Ukrainian sanctions, which will take some time. The European Commission has pledged that Slovakia will receive oil for processing. This is probably Russian oil. This is another exception for Slovakia, as for Hungary, with a complete rejection of Russian energy products.
Everyone who is somehow involved, understands that the thing is not only that Fico was able to agree, but also in what they realized there: you can not only get, but also lose a lot. This is also related to Article 7 of the European Treaty, which involves the deprivation of the right to vote, although it has never been applied. But in the future, it may be used for someone.
Igor PETRENKO: New sanctions against Russia will come into force in 3-4 months
The 18-th package of sanctions shows a certain strategic autonomy of the European Union, or, at least, a systematic movement towards this goal. We really see an almost ready result. It was difficult, and we faced opposition, but the use of decision-making mechanisms in the European Union was important for obtaining certain dividends, using blackmail in key decisions for the EU itself.
I think it is important to start preparing the 19-th sanctions package. We see that the Russian Federation takes a destructive position on issues of peace. This becomes apparent even for Trump himself, based on his statements. Therefore, it is necessary to continue to increase pressure on Russia, so that it has as little as possible, and there are no resources left at all to continue the aggression.
Moscow does not sit idly by. She is looking for ways and opportunities to circumvent sanctions.
For example, they tried to push through the idea of joint operation of the Nord Stream gas pipeline with the Americans to make money on Europeans. However, there is a ban on transactions related to this pipeline. This is an important moment.
We also see the expansion of sanctions against the shadow fleet of Russia. This will hit Russia even more than a restriction on the IT sector. The sanctions list included 105 vessels engaged in circumventing sanctions and forming the so-called shadow fleet. If the price of oil is at the current level, these vessels will continue their activities. However, the loophole narrows, and the situation becomes more complicated.
In addition, sanctions against Russian banks have been expanded. 22 banks have been included in the sanctions list, and their access to international financial markets is significantly limited. This is a serious blow, given that there are already few such loopholes to circumvent sanctions.
It is prohibited to export dual-use technologies that can be used in the production of drones. We understand that drones are the main means of the current war. This is also a significant measure. Moreover, sanctions have been imposed against Chinese banks to help circumvent restrictions, which limits financial flows that contribute to the circumvention of sanctions by Russia.
The issue of secondary sanctions is very important. They are the main deterrent for countries and companies that see opportunities for earning through assistance in circumventing sanctions of the Russian Federation.
Russia’s economy is stagnating. There are many problems, and any additional restrictions only worsen the situation, but definitely do not help. Given the colossal funds that Russia spends on the continuation of the war, this in any case will lead to cracks in the social sphere, the possibility of containing inflation and other aspects. Economic experts will be able to explain in more detail the consequences of these actions.
It is important to remember that such restrictions have a temporary lag. Decisions on the 18th package have been made, but the restrictions will come into force in 3-4 months, and the first effects will appear in six months and beyond. The Russian Federation will try to circumvent these sanctions, which must also be taken into account. Returning to the thesis of secondary sanctions, you need to have appropriate monitoring and be ready to close loopholes as efficiently as possible.
GENNADY RYABTSEV: Russia will be left without strategic partners
The price of oil should not exceed $ 47.6 per barrel. This means that if the contract price is above the established boundary, no European company will be able to provide services to counterparties that purchase or sell this oil - for transportation insurance, for the provision of logistics services, in the provision of financial services, in general, any services that are necessary in order to legally carry oil cargoes by sea.
This does not mean that the Russian Federation will not be able to sell oil more expensive. There will be restrictions on the range of these deliveries.
And such restrictions have been in place so far. However, those price lines that were set for oil raw materials at $60 per barrel and for oil products at $100 per barrel are no longer in line with the realities of the oil market, which during the actions of these restrictions have reversed the upward trend. Now, most likely, by the end of this year we will see a fairly serious decline in oil prices.
This will be a dynamic limitation. It will be calculated depending on the quotations that currently exist in the world market of oil raw materials. This is not the sale price, it's the cut-off price.
The price above which no company registered in the member states of the European Union will have the right to provide services relating to the sea transportation of Russian raw materials. In addition, we should not forget about the sanctions that were imposed against the next hundred vessels of the shadow tanker fleet, bringing the total number of tankers hit the ban to 444.
It is clear that this is not 900, but in such a number of approximately estimated the number of tankers involved by the Russian Federation in the transportation of oil raw materials. But this automatically means that ships capable of providing appropriate services to Russian counterparties are becoming less and less. The companies that provide these services will ask more for the fact that they will be involved in the transportation of sanctioned goods. Consequently, fewer and fewer funds will be transferred to the federal budget of the Russian Federation from exports.
This automatically means that it will be more difficult to reduce the budget, and one interesting feature of this sanctions list should not be forgotten. The fact is that secondary sanctions will be imposed. EU member states will not be able to purchase petroleum products received in third countries from Russian raw materials. This automatically means that Indian refineries will need to look for other consumers for their own gasoline and diesel fuel. And there are not so many of them, especially when you consider the decline in oil prices and the expected decline in oil prices around the world.
Overproduction of oil raw materials, that is, production, we have 1% more every day than the world needs. This means that companies that process raw materials will think first of all about not being left without customers, not to be left without those companies that buy produced from oil, including Russian oil products.
The statement of the Indian oil minister indicates that at any time, if the Indian government deems necessary, they will be able to refuse to purchase Russian oil raw materials.
This automatically means that friendship, strategic partnership with a strategic partnership, and oil and oil products are a dist.
In fact, Russia has virtually no strategic partners. Each of the so-called strategic partners is primarily interested in maintaining normal trade relations with the EU and the United States. Russia can be sacrificed.
By the way, the fact that the United States did not join the European package does not mean that they are doing less.
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