The current situation is remarkable given that, in mid February, 2019 was running lower than 8 of the earlier years (2005, 2010-2013, 2016-2018).
July 8 - We saw only 1,831 new listings added during the first week of July across all areas & types. This is down 8% from last year and continues the weak supply trend that started in June. This is unusual and is causing more problems for buyers. The gap between supply and demand is getting wider. . . For the last 8 weeks, the monthly sales rate has recorded new all-time records for the time of year.
The closest rivals were the years 2005 and 2011
This is the greatest imbalance in favor of sellers that we have seen in almost 6 years.
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July 4 - Active listing counts are still plummeting and they have been low for so long that it can be difficult to place them in proper context. We thought it would be instructive to compare current levels with peak levels and long term averages.
Mesa, Chandler, Glendale, Gilbert and Surprise are all below 50% of their long term average
July 2 - In June, the average monthly rent per sq. ft. was $1.01 for listings closed through ARMLS. This the first time we have recorded a figure over $1.
In June 2006 the average monthly rent was only 71 cents per sq. ft., so rents have increased by 42% since then. In comparison the average purchase price per sq. ft. has moved from $188.53 to $172.02 since June 2006, a fall of 9%.
So average rent has increased 42% while purchase prices have fallen 9% since June 2006 on a cost per sq. ft. basis.
No wonder most investors are feeling pleased with themselves. Tenants are not doing so well. Buying in 2006 or 2007 was obviously a bad idea, but since 2009 purchasing a home in Greater Phoenix has generally proven to be an excellent investment compared with renting.
July 1 - The housing market in Greater Phoenix is not content with just recovering from the slight air pocket in demand that occurred in 4Q 2018 and 1Q 2019. It is now setting up to be the hottest it has been since 2005, As an example we have just 1.9 months of supply across all areas & types as of July 1, 2019. This is the lowest number at the start of any month since October 2005.
June 30 - For an analyst, the housing market is more interesting now than it has been for at least 5 years. This is because it is doing things it does not usually do.
June 26 - Despite the Greater Phoenix housing market making new record highs for sales volume and pricing, the national media greeted the S&P/Case-Shiller® Home Price Index® release for April 2019 with a surprisingly negative interpretation. I wonder how they would react if prices actually went down. Not much chance of that happening here any time soon, but here are the city rankings:
Month over month change:
- Boston +1.86%
- Detroit +1.62%
- San Francisco +1.59%
- Chicago +1.20%
- Portland +1.12%
- Seattle +1.06%
- Charlotte +1.01%
- Minneapolis +1.01%
- Los Angeles +0.99%
- Atlanta +0.98%
- Washington +0.90%
- Denver +0.80%
- Phoenix +0.78%
- Tampa +0.70%
- Cleveland +0.69%
- Dallas +0.63%
- Las Vegas +0.58%
- San Diego +0.50%
Year over year change:
- Las Vegas +7.1%
- Phoenix +6.0%
- Tampa +5.6%
- Atlanta +4.9%
- Charlotte +4.2%
- Miami +3.9%
- Boston +3.9%
- Denver +3.8%
- Detroit +3.5%
- Cleveland +3.5%
- Minneapolis +3.0%
- Dallas +2.7%
- Washington +2.6%
- Portland +2.6%
- New York +2.1%
- Chicago +1.9%
- San Francisco +1.8%
- Los Angeles +1.5%
- San Diego +0.8%
- Seattle +0.0%
