29 July 2022

ASU 2021 Economic Forecast: Just now wrong was it Huh??

Yup it's that time of the year again for all kinds of different Economic Forecasts for next year. Needless to say there's more than a few divergent opinions out out there for public consumption, so let's see what's out there:
1. From the Arizona Republic looks like this:
Arizona's economy could return to normal in 2021, ASU researchers say

ASU forecast: Arizona, U.S. could be back near economic normal in 2021

 
 
1. Re-published in the Rose Law Group Reporter looks like this

By Russ Wiles | Arizona Republic

Arizona’s economic recovery isn’t painless, and certain sectors — lodging, restaurants and entertainment in particular — could continue to struggle.

As Arizona State University forecasters see it, 2021 will mark a return to near normalcy for the state and national economies — assuming a vaccine next year stems the COVID-19 outbreak and Congress adopts a stimulus package to keep the rebound on track.

The most telling sign of improvement: An eventual recovery in the number of overall statewide jobs lost during the pandemic as rising in-migration pushes Arizona’s population above 7.5 million sometime in 2021.

But it isn’t a painless recovery, with lingering reminders such as an increase in federal debt. Certain sectors — lodging, restaurants and entertainment in particular — could continue to struggle, and so might lower-income workers and others.

“We need about 100,000 (statewide) jobs to get us back to where we were when the downturn started,” said Lee McPheters, an ASU professor and director of the university’s JPMorgan Chase Economic Outlook Center.

Arizona should do better than that, adding about 115,000 net new jobs for a 4% growth rate by the end of 2021, he predicted. That scenario assumes one or more COVID-19 vaccines are widely distributed in the first half of the year and Congress comes through with a stimulus bill during that time frame.

 
 
2. . .  . and another
ASU
ASU and national economists to offer 2021 outlook | ASU Now: Access,  Excellence, Impact
 
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