There's a new Reuters/Ipsos poll - Americans now agree with the statement that “the problems of Ukraine are none of our business, and we should not interfere.” That compares with 31% when the same question was asked in April. Inflation is a far greater concern than the Ukraine crisis, the poll showed.
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✓✓KYIV/LONDON, July 20 (Reuters) - Ukraine has asked its international creditors, including Western powers and the world's largest investment firms, to freeze its debt payments for two years so it can focus its dwindling financial resources on repelling Russia.
Facing an estimated 35% to 45% crash in GDP this year following Moscow's invasion in February, Ukraine's finance ministry said on Wednesday it was hoping to finalise the deferral on its roughly $20 billion of debt by Aug. 9.
The delay, which was quickly backed by both the major Western governments and heavyweight funds that have lent to Kyiv, would come just in time to put off around $1.2 billion of debt payments due at the start of September.
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The government's proposal, posted on its website, said all its bond interest payments would be deferred under the plan, although to avoid what would be classed as a hard default it also offered lenders additional interest payments once the freeze ends.
"The disruption to fiscal cash flows and increased demands on government resources caused by the war has created unprecedented liquidity pressures and debt servicing difficulties," the finance ministry said.
It came amid signs that Moscow is now stepping up its assault, with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov saying on Wednesday that the Kremlin's military objectives in Ukraine now go beyond the eastern Donbas region. read more
Ukraine has estimated the costs of the war combined with lower tax revenues has left a $5 billion-a-month fiscal shortfall - or 2.5% of pre-war GDP. Economists calculate that pushes the annual deficit to 25% of GDP, compared with just 3.5% before the conflict.
On top of that, researchers from the Kyiv School of Economics estimate that it will already take over $100 billion to rebuild Ukraine's bombed infrastructure, while the head of the EU's powerful financing arm, the European Investment Bank, has warned it could run into trillions. read more
It is estimated that the debt freeze could save Ukraine around $5 billion over the deferral period.
"We, as official bilateral creditors of Ukraine, intend to provide a coordinated suspension of debt service," a group of governments including the United States, Canada, France, Germany, Japan and Britain said shortly after Ukraine made its proposal.
"We also strongly encourage all other official bilateral creditors to swiftly reach agreement" the group added.
SUPPORT
Ukraine's finance minister, Sergii Marchenko, said in a statement that the plan had also received "explicit indications of support" from some of the world's biggest investment funds including BlackRock, Fidelity, Amia Capital and Gemsstock.
Wednesday's move had marked something of a U-turn from Kyiv, which had repeatedly said in recent months that it planned to keep up debt payments despite the war.
Speculation that a debt freeze request could be imminent however was fanned last week after the country's state-run energy firm Naftogaz also requested one. read more
"A proper restructuring still needs to happen," said Viktor Szabo, a portfolio manager at abrdn which holds Ukraine's government bonds. "But it cannot be done before the situation normalizes on the ground, i.e. a sustained cease-fire at least.” read more
Ukraine has a host of bonds which add up to over $20 billion of borrowings. The government also plans to postpone payment on a growth-linked 'warrant' offered after its last restructuring in 2015, which was designed to pay investors handsomely if the economy hit its stride.
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Tymofiy Mylovanov, an adviser to the Ukrainian presidential office, had urged Western countries to increase their financial support in recent weeks.
Global institutions such as the International Monetary Fund, World Bank and Western governments have committed to providing $38 billion since the invasion, although almost 80% of that support is made up of loans rather than aid.
Through a spokesperson, the IMF said "in general, voluntary pre-emptive agreements would be a net positive for the outlook."
Last week the Fund said international community grant financing was a priority for Ukraine's immediate and short-term, as that would allow the government to remain operational without incurring further debt. read more
Wednesday's move had little impact on Ukraine's bonds, most which had already slumped more than 80% since Russia began building up its troops on Ukraine's borders late last year.
"There is quite a bit of support in the market to agree to this," said Petar Atanasov, the co-head of sovereign research at specialist distressed debt fund Gramercy.
"Unfortunately there are no signs of peace or a cease-fire on the horizon."
($1 = 29.5000 hryvnias)
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Additional reporting Karin Strohecker in London and Leigh Thomas in Paris; Editing by Timothy Heritage, Elaine Hardcastle, Toby Chopra and Jonathan Oatis
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24 Aug 2022
Fewer US adults are sold on backing Kiev against Russia than in earlier months of the conflict, a Reuters/Ipsos survey has shown
Six months on from the start of Russia’s military offensive against Ukraine, nearly three in ten Americans are unsure about continuing to support Kiev in the conflict, a new poll has shown.
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While 53% of US adults agree that Washington should continue to support Kiev “until all Russian forces are withdrawn from territory claimed by Ukraine,” 28% are undecided, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Wednesday. Doubts about continuing to pump weapons and other aid into Ukraine are especially prevalent among independents, at 37%, while 18% of Americans oppose the shipments altogether.
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The survey suggests waning support for US involvement as the conflict drags on, contributing to surging inflation on the home front. In fact, 40% of Americans now agree with the statement that “the problems of Ukraine are none of our business, and we should not interfere.” That compares with 31% when the same question was asked in April.
Moreover, 59% of survey respondents, including 69% of Republicans, agree with the statement that “given the current economic crisis, the US cannot afford to lend financial support to Ukraine.” About half (51%) still support providing weapons to Ukraine, down from 73% in April. Just 26% support sending US troops to Ukraine, down from 39% in April.
US President Joe Biden announced $3 billion in additional military aid to Ukraine on Wednesday, the biggest package of weaponry earmarked for Kiev since the fighting began in February. The US has committed more than $15.5 billion in military assistance to Ukraine since backing the overthrow of Kiev’s elected government in 2014. The lion’s share of that aid, $13.5 billion, has been announced over the past six months.
Americans are evenly divided on restricting imports of Russian oil and natural gas if doing so means paying higher prices for their own energy use. The survey showed that 50% support limits on imports from Russia, even at the expense of higher prices. Similarly, 49% agree that it’s more important to have gas supplies for their homes and businesses than to try to influence Russia. However, only 21% agree that anti-Russia sanctions aren’t worth the impact they’re having in the US.
Inflation is a far greater concern than the Ukraine crisis, the poll showed. While 58% of Americans are following the conflict at least “somewhat closely,” 75% are closely tracking news on inflation."
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Americans Are Still Unsure How The U.S. Should Respond To The Invasion Of Ukraine
Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup.
The ongoing war in Ukraine appears to have Americans in a bind: While roughly half of U.S. adults want to impose some type of punishment on or sanction against the Russian government for waging a war on Ukraine, another chunk of the country thinks it’s best for President Biden and others in power to stay out of European affairs.
My colleague Geoffrey Skelley previously documented the sort of quandary many Americans are in regarding the war. And recent polling suggests that most voters are on the fence on where to go from here. That said, certain things are clearer based on recent polling: For starters, Americans are still somewhat dissatisfied with Biden’s response to the crisis. As my colleague Nathaniel Rakich wrote the day after Russia invaded Ukraine, Biden already had low approval ratings, including on his handling of foreign policy. Unfortunately for the president, though, his numbers haven’t significantly improved on the issue since. According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll fielded in late February and early March, only 40 percent said they approved of the way Biden has handled Russia, while 43 percent said the same about how he’s handled Ukraine. Moreover, per the same survey, most Americans (63 percent) are against sending the U.S. military to Ukraine to help defend them against Russian forces — a reality Biden has said is off the table. Other polls yield a similar finding: According to an early February Economist/YouGov survey, 55 percent of Americans said that sending troops to Ukraine to fight Russian soldiers was a bad idea.
Beyond that, though, public opinion is a bit murky, and the data suggests that Americans have mixed feelings on the U.S. response — whether that’s things like imposing sanctions on Russia (which experts warn could raise gas prices here), allowing Ukraine to join NATO or sending U.S. troops to NATO countries in Eastern Europe.
According to that Reuters/Ipsos survey, roughly one-third of Americans (34 percent) said Ukraine’s current problems should stay their own. And per the Economist/YouGov survey, adults were split on a number of potential courses of action. On imposing economic sanctions on Russia, a bare majority (50 percent) thought this was a good idea, while 20 percent disagreed. Meanwhile, allowing Ukraine to join NATO earned the support of 43 percent of adults, compared with 15 percent who said that was a bad idea. And 42 percent of citizens said they wanted the U.S. to send financial aid to Ukraine; 24 percent did not. What’s somewhat striking from YouGov’s survey, though, is that large shares of Americans are simply unsure how the U.S. should respond. Thirty-one percent and 42 percent of respondents, respectively, said they didn’t know whether it was a good or bad idea for the U.S. to impose economic sanctions on Russia or let Ukraine join NATO. But, to some extent, these numbers should be expected, as Americans often don’t know a lot about foreign policy and look to political elites to signal what to do.
Of course, the situation in Europe is fluid, so these numbers could change with time. Greater media coverage of the war will likely shape Americans’ opinions on the issue, but it’s also possible that more people will begin paying attention if things start to affect them personally — or if they start to feel even more strongly about Biden’s inability to handle international affairs.
Why Russia is waging war in Ukraine | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast
Indeed, there’s already evidence that public opinion on the crisis in Ukraine has changed — particularly on the question of whether what’s happening overseas will increase the cost of goods and services, like gas prices. On imposing additional sanctions against Russia, 69 percent of Americans said they were in favor, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll that was conducted in the two days prior to the invasion on Feb. 24. But despite widespread support, only about half of the public said those sanctions were worthwhile if they led to more expensive gas prices. A CNN/SSRS poll fielded just after the invasion began found a similar result: Per the survey, 71 percent of Americans agreed that the U.S. should consider gas prices when deciding its actions toward Russia, a major oil and natural gas producer.
Beyond that, it’s hard to tell just how much
Americans’ views on the war could change, especially given how volatile
the situation is. But, so far, evidence suggests that as time goes on, the public is paying more attention
to European affairs. The CNN/SSRS poll found that 79 percent of adults
were following the war at least somewhat closely, though only 3 in 10
said they were watching it very closely. Here at FiveThirtyEight, we’ll continue to cover what’s happening in Europe, but unless the war has a more direct effect on Americans’ day-to-day lives, it’s possible that the public won’t have strong opinions on this conflict moving forward.
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