OK...So Who's Having A Lovely Weekend??

14 August 2022

OK...So Who's Having A Lovely Weekend??

Here's wishing you well; enjoy it while you can. For those of us who like a reality check every now and then here ya go. . .

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Good morning. Wishing you all a lovely weekend

These three @wsj charts highlight some key issues regarding US #inflation such as:

Headline vs core (i.e., lower energy vs more broad-based drivers of higher prices); and

Going forward, the greater influence of shelter and #wages.

Mohamed on Twitter (@elerianm)

What a game for the #Mets against the #Phillies. A classic. It’s really wonderful to have @JdeGrom19 back. (Just wish the Braves would stop winning.) @Mets @Phillies #lgm
Posted 9 hours ago
From @markets on the @BankOfEngland’s inflation forecasts.

This pattern of ever higher #inflation forecasts for longer over the last 18 months is one that has plagued several other major #CentralBanks, including the @ECB and the @FederalReserve.#economy #markets #inflation

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Preliminary Results for August 2022

	Aug	Jul	Aug	M-M	Y-Y
	2022	2022	2021	Change	Change
Index of Consumer Sentiment	55.1	51.5	70.3	+7.0%	-21.6%
Current Economic Conditions	55.5	58.1	78.5	-4.5%	-29.3%
Index of Consumer Expectations	54.9	47.3	65.1	+16.1%	-15.7%

Featured Chart (PDF)

Next data release: Friday, August 26, 2022 for Final August data at 10am ET

Surveys of Consumers Marks Leadership Change

Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu

Consumer sentiment moved up very slightly this month to about 5 index points above the all-time low reached in June. All components of the expectations index improved this month, particularly among low and middle income consumers for whom inflation is particularly salient. The year-ahead economic outlook rose substantially to just above its average reading from the second quarter 2022, while the two other expectations index components remain at or below their second quarter averages. At the same time, high income consumers, who generate a disproportionate share of spending, registered large declines in both their current personal finances as well as buying conditions for durables. With continued declines in energy prices, the median expected year-ahead inflation rate fell to 5.0%, its lowest reading since February but still well above the 4.6% reading from a year ago. At 3.0%, median long run inflation expectations remained within the 2.9-3.1% range seen over the past year. Uncertainty over long run inflation receded a bit, with the interquartile range in expectations falling from 4.7 last month to 3.8 this month, remaining above the 3.3 range seen last August. Still, the share of consumers blaming inflation for eroding their living standards remained near 48%.

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