Keeping U.S. troops in Syria prolongs the civil war...Keeping U.S. troops in Syria courts war with larger powers

The US has roughly 900 soldiers in Syria, mainly in the northeast of the country, who work with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which is led by the YPG, to fight against ISIL remnants???

The ISIS territorial caliphate has collapsed in Syria, and the U.S. military presence today prolongs a civil war and endangers U.S. troops to spoil a complete Syrian government victory and deprive it of oil revenue.

U.S. support for rebels convinced Russia and Iran to redouble their own military assistance to Damascus—worsening the civil war—and badly failed.²

As ISIS gained power, the U.S. directly intervened militarily in Syria toward degrading and eliminating the group's territorial caliphate. U.S. airstrikes, coupled with Kurdish- and Arab-led ground operations assisted by U.S. SOFs, accelerated under President Trump. Congress never authorized sending U.S. forces into Syria.

With ISIS’s caliphate collapsed by early 2019 and its remnants scattered, U.S. objectives shifted yet again—in large part to preventing Russian and Iranian influence in Syria and spoiling a complete Syrian government victory by depriving it of oil revenue

Keeping U.S. troops in Syria courts war with larger powers

For the U.S., Syria’s geostrategic position is insignificant. It has no notable natural resources, international waterways, or other kinds of strategically important attributes. U.S.-Syria relations have long been poor.

The situation is different for Iran and Russia, both of which have expended enormous military, economic, and diplomatic resources to ensure the survival of a long-time partner in Damascus. For Russia and Iran, a Syrian government victory would be a return to the status quo—not an expansion of power in the Middle East.

Keeping U.S. forces on the ground increases the risks of confrontation with Syrian, Iranian, and Russian forces—and possibly our own NATO ally Turkey. Such a scenario could spark all-out war in the region.

U.S. troops have already engaged in dangerous skirmishes with Iran-backed forces, Russian mercenaries, and regular Russian army units. Fights with Assad-backed forces are increasingly likely.

Preserving a U.S. military presence to frustrate Iran's or Russia’s status-quo ambitions in Syria courts wider conflict with both powers, a dangerous and unnecessary distraction from true strategic priorities.⁵

The existence of a Syrian government backed by Russia and Iran is not preferable but does not hinder core U.S. interests in the Middle East. Leaving these powers to exercise influence in war-torn Syria is no gift to them.

THIS IS A REPORT FROM MAY 2021

U.S. interests militate against keeping troops in Syria

Core U.S. interests in the Middle East are narrow: (1) preventing significant, long-term disruptions to the flow of oil and (2) defending against anti-U.S. terrorist threats.

Neither U.S. interest justifies keeping U.S. forces in Syria, which holds only 0.1 percent of global oil reserves. U.S. forces originally deployed to Syria to help annihilate ISIS’s territorial caliphate, which was achieved by March 2019.

Since then, the U.S. military presence there has transformed well beyond a counterterrorism mission with a series of murky objectives and needless risks.

Rather than an endless occupation, the U.S. should acknowledge success and withdraw the approximately 900 U.S. troops that remain in eastern Syria.

Timeline of U.S. intervention in the Syrian civil war

Around 900 U.S. troops remain in Syria, even after the collapse of ISIS’s territorial caliphate.

REPORT TODAY

Turkey has stepped up air attacks on northern Syria since the November 13 Istanbul bombing.

Turkish air attacks in northern Syria threaten the safety of United States military personnel and the escalating situation is jeopardising years of progress against ISIL (ISIS) fighters, the Pentagon has said.

The public comments on Wednesday represent the strongest condemnation by the US of NATO ally Turkey’s air operations in recent days against Kurdish-led YPG (People’s Protection Units) forces in northern Syria to date.

“Recent air strikes in Syria directly threatened the safety of U.S. personnel who are working in Syria with local partners to defeat ISIS and maintain custody of more than ten thousand ISIS detainees,” the Pentagon’s spokesman, Air Force Brigadier General Pat Ryder, said in a statement.

Ryder said the escalating situation threatened the progress made in the fight against ISIL fighters in the region. . . . .

This is not the first time Turkey’s operations in northern Syria have threatened US personnel. In 2019, American troops in the area came under artillery fire from Turkish positions as Turkey waged an offensive against US-allied Kurdish fighters at the time.

Turkey has repeatedly complained to the US that support for the YPG-led SDF undermines Washington’s position on the PKK and its commitment to Turkey’s security.

Erdogan maintains that Turkey will only be able to remove the threat from the PKK and the YPG by clearing the militias from the Turkey-Syria border and creating a “safe zone” in northern Syria.

Source: Al Jazeera and news agencies

From the report

In March 2022, the Syria conflict marked its 11th year. Analysts estimate that the conflict has killed over half a million people (including combatants) and displaced half of Syria’s prewar population. Challenges for U.S. policymakers in Syria include countering groups linked to Al Qaeda, responding to the threat posed by Islamic State (IS/ISIS) remnants and detainees, facilitating humanitarian assistance, and managing Russian and Iranian challenges to U.S. operations.

Conflict Status. In early 2022, United Nations (U.N.) Special Envoy for Syria Geir Pedersen described the conflict in Syria—between the Syrian government and its partners on one side and various opposition and extremist groups on the other side—as a “stalemate,” noting that “militarily, front lines remain unshifted.” Pedersen stated that “any of a number of flashpoints could ignite a broader conflagration.” In 2022, incoming U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) commander General Michael Kurilla stated that the Asad government is “positioned to end the civil war militarily,” but noted that the underlying conditions driving the conflict (including political disenfranchisement, poverty, water scarcity, and economic instability) would likely persist. . .. .

U.S. Military Presence. Roughly 900 U.S. troops operate in Syria in support of counter-IS operations by local partner forces, as part of Operation Inherent Resolve (OIR). U.S. forces in Syria continue to face threats from Iran-backed militias, which have targeted U.S. positions in the country.

Policy Debates. Policymakers are faced with a number of—at times competing—policy priorities in Syria. The Islamic State seeks to exploit deteriorating economic conditions in the country; however, projects to bolster economic activity in Syria may have the unintended effect of aiding the Asad government. Similarly, policymakers disagree on whether the benefits of efforts to alleviate economic conditions in neighboring Lebanon outweigh the risk that these efforts could benefit Asad. Policymakers also face the additional complications of regional states, including U.S. allies, pursuing their own objectives in Syria, whether in the form of military operations or efforts to normalize diplomatic ties with the Asad government."

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24 November 2022