Results will take a while
When will result of midterms be in? It could take just hours or almost a MONTH for control of Congress to be known... but beware of red and blue 'mirage states' that appear decided before they really are
- Dozens of races throughout the United States are expected to be close
- Experts say it may take up to a month to know which party will be in control of the United States Congress
- Earliest results can be skewed by mail-in ballots, with states that count mail-in ballots early reporting more Democrat-favored results
- Those that do not count mail-in ballots until Election Day will rely more heavily on votes cast in person, which tend to be Republican
"Though Election Day is just days away, it may take Americans up to a month to know which party will be in control of the United States Congress,
All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives are up for grabs on Tuesday, as are 35 U.S. Senate seats and 36 governorships.
Republicans would need to pick up five seats to take a majority in the House and just one to control the Senate. Nonpartisan election forecasters and polls suggest Republicans have a very strong chance of winning a House majority, with control of the Senate likely to be closer fought as voters say they are most concerned about the economy.
A massive wave of Republican support could lead to declarations of victory hours after polls close.
But with dozens of races expected to be close and key states like Pennsylvania already warning it could take days to count every ballot, experts say there's a good chance Americans go to bed on election night without knowing who won.
'When it comes to knowing the results, we should move away from talking about Election Day and think instead about election week,' said Nathan Gonzales, who publishes the nonpartisan newsletter Inside Elections. . .
Beware of red and blue 'mirage' states
The earliest vote tallies will be skewed by how quickly states count mail-in ballots.
Because Democrats vote by mail more often than Republicans, states that let officials get an early jump on counting mail ballots could report big Democratic leads early on that evaporate as vote counters work through piles of Republican-leaning ballots that were cast on election day.
In these 'blue mirage' states — like Florida and North Carolina — election officials are allowed to remove mail ballots from their envelopes before Election Day and load them in vote counting machines, allowing for speedy counting.
But states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin don't allow officials to open the envelopes until Election Day, leading to a possible 'red mirage' in which Republican-leaning Election Day ballots are reported earlier, with many Democratic-leaning mail ballots counted later.
Experts like Joe Lenski, co-founder of Edison Research, which will be tracking hundreds of races on November 8 said he will keep an eye on the mix of different types of ballots each state is counting throughout the night.
'Blue mirage, red mirage, whatever. You just have to look at what types of votes are getting reported to know where you are in that state,' said Lenski.
. . .
So when will we know when the races are won?
The first wave of vote tallies are expected on the East Coast between 7pm and 8pm ET. An early indication of Republican success could come if the races expected to be close — like Virginia's 7th congressional district (where Republican Liz Cheney has put her support behind a Democratic candidate) or a contentious U.S. Senate seat in North Carolina — turn out to be Democratic routs.
By around 10pm or 11pm EST, when polls in the Midwest will be closed for an hour or more, it's possible Republicans will have enough momentum for experts at U.S. media organizations to project control of the House, said Kyle Kondik, a political analyst at the University of Virginia's Center for Politics.
If the fight for the House still looks close as vote tallies start coming in from the West Coast — where there could be more than a dozen tight House races — it could be days before control of the chamber is known, experts said.
California typically takes weeks to count all its ballots, in part because it counts ballots postmarked by Election Day even if they arrive days afterward. Nevada and Washington state also allow late ballots if postmarked by November 8, slowing down the march to final results.
'If the House is really on the edge, that would matter,' said Kondik.
It may take longer, perhaps weeks longer, to know which party will control the Senate, with close contests in Pennsylvania, Arizona and Georgia likely to determine final control.
And iIf Georgia's Senate race is as close as expected and no candidate receives more than 50 percent of the vote, a run-off election would be scheduled for December 6, possibly leaving control of the chamber in limbo until then.
No comments:
Post a Comment