Believe it if you want to...WHO IS FREED KAPLAN?
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Fred Kaplan
My @Slate piece on Zelensky's DC visit: the power of charm and heroism; are the Patriot missiles a game-changer? (not unless we send a lot more); and where the war goes now. bit.ly/3YJrlZL
Twitter · 2 hours ago
Does turbulence in Russia, China, and Iran foretell revolution or serious reform? It's complicated. Read my @Slate column here: bit.ly/3jlBmMD
Twitter · 4 hours ago
My takedown of Kissinger's delusionally nostalgic "peace plan" for Ukraine. bit.ly/3hCkXTp
Twitter · 6 days ago
The Power of Volodymyr Zelensky’s Charm Offensive
The next Congress can’t slash support for Ukraine now.
BY FRED KAPLAN
DEC 22, 202210:45 AM
'...Earlier in the day, in a two-hour meeting in the White House, President Biden took up that request, noting that the spending bill—which Congress just passed—provides Ukraine with $45 billion in various forms of aid. Biden also announced that he was adding $1.8 billion in military assistance—on top of the $23 billion worth of arms that the U.S. has given Ukraine since the invasion.
The prominent item in the list of new weapons was a battery of Patriot air-defense missiles, which are far more effective than the weapons previously supplied for shooting down cruise missiles, short-range ballistic missiles, and high-flying airplanes—with which Russia has lately been attacking Ukrainian cities and power stations, leaving many cities without electricity, heat, or running water.
Except for the one line in his speech (“Is it enough? Honestly, not really”), which he spoke in a slightly self-deprecating tone, perhaps knowing that anger or pressure would backfire, Zelensky didn’t complain about any shortfalls in U.S. aid. But clearly he knew—and Biden did as well—that even the massive outflow of American weapons has left the Ukrainians less than fully capable.
The supply of Patriot air-defense weapons, after much hesitation, is not as bountiful as it may seem. Biden said at the press conference that he is sending a single Patriot battery—equipped with four missiles—so that Ukrainian units can be trained in how to use them. A knowledgeable source told me Wednesday night that the training would take place at a U.S. base in Germany where Patriots are already deployed and that, even with an accelerated program, the training would take “several weeks.” After that, Biden and his aides will decide—they haven’t just yet—how many Patriots the U.S. will supply. They are also prodding NATO allies to pay for some of the missiles, which cost $1 million each.
A Ukrainian journalist asked Biden at the end of the news conference whether he could just send all the weapons he was thinking of sending in one massive shipment now. Biden replied, looking at Zelensky, “His answer is Yes.” Zelensky chuckled and said, “I agree.” Biden then listed several of the weapons he has sent Ukraine, noted that he has spent “hundreds of hours” talking with NATO allies about supplying four kinds of arms (artillery, air defense, armor and ammunition), and then made his point: Western aid to Ukraine is an alliance effort. The allies have to agree on what types of weapons to send.
Some weapons—notably American ATACMs missiles, which have the range to strike targets deep inside Russia—seem to some allies like a provocation. (Ukrainians have struck two air bases inside Russia with their own weapons; some Western officials believe doing so with NATO weapons might provoke Putin into attacking NATO countries, though others doubt that theory.) The allies, Biden said, understand the nature of the conflict and the nature of Putin, ”but they’re not looking to go to war with Russia” themselves, “they don’t want to start World War III”—a sentiment that Biden himself has uttered several times.
NATO is as united as it has been in decades, but there still are some divisions. Similarly, the American Congress and public are more supportive of Ukraine than anyone might have imagined after nearly a year of war—but there are still differences in degree of support too, especially between Democrats and Republicans.
In his speech, Zelensky said, “Next year will be a turning point.” Maybe. But unless Putin is ousted or crumbles, the war is likely to go on for a while longer."
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