07 July 2023

Numerous records for high temperatures and streaks of hot weather could be set over the next two weeks.

Computer models show the possibility of 120-degree temperatures in the area.
  • An excessive heat warning is in place through at least July 13 for much of south-central Arizona, including Phoenix and Tucson. In addition to a week or more of days with extreme heat, temperatures won’t drop too far at night, offering little relief and posing a health risk for those without access to air conditioning.
“Very dangerous to potentially life-threatening heat conditions are expected through next week and it is very essential that all the necessary heat precautions be taken to avoid any heat-related illnesses,” the Weather Service wrote.
  • It’s not just the heat. Unusually low humidity for July across the region is mixing with high temperatures, exacerbating a wildfire risk by drying out the land surface. Red-flag warnings for high fire danger are posted for northern Arizona and the Four Corners region out of concern for the potential of fast-moving blazes, several of which are already scorching land.
NWS HeatRisk Prototype shows widespread major or extreme threat from heat next Thursday. (National Weather Service)
NWS HeatRisk Prototype shows widespread major or extreme threat from heat next Thursday. (National Weather Service)

Numerous records for high temperatures and streaks of hot weather could be set over the next two weeks.

There’s no clear end in sight to this heat wave. The heat dome, set to expand and strengthen over the region, may persist beyond the limits of current forecasts.

How long this heat wave lasts may ultimately depend on whether monsoon season kicks in, but forecasters expect a near- to below-average monsoon season after a very active one last year.

The hottest time of year in Arizona is often late June into early July, highlighted in the graph below of cumulative days at or above 105 degrees in Phoenix. Deeper into July, and more noticeably by August, clouds and rain generated by monsoons tend to reduce the heat but increase humidity.

Cumulative days reaching 105 or higher across Phoenix modern records. (Ian Livingston/The Washington Post)
Cumulative days reaching 105 or higher across Phoenix modern records. (Ian Livingston/The Washington Post)

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