A place to discuss influencer culture in Arizona
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Power Ranking polls conducted by Noble Predictive Insights
Bottom 10
From left are U.S. Rep. Ruben Gallego, D-Phoenix, and U.S. Senator Mark Kelly, D-Ariz, who finished first and second respectively in a Power Ranking polls conducted by Noble Predictive Insights. (Photos by Associated Press)
From left are U.S. Rep. Ruben Gallego, D-Phoenix, and U.S. Senator Mark Kelly, D-Ariz, who finished first and second respectively in a Power Ranking polls conducted by Noble Predictive Insights. (Photos by Associated Press)
Gallego, Kelly top Power Ranking poll
Jakob Thorington Arizona Capitol Times//November 21, 2023//
Listen to this articleTwo Democrats representing Arizona in Congress placed as the top two in a recent poll ranking the most favorable people for public office in the state.
- A recent power ranking list from Noble Predictive Insights in partnership with Arizona Capitol Times ranked the top 50 people in favorability for public office and found Rep. Ruben Gallego placed first in the pollster’s power score, followed closely by Sen. Mark Kelly.
- Coming in last on the list was 2022 Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake, who is running for U.S. Senate against Gallego.
The Capitol Times, using its expertise in politics, public policy and governance, came up with the list of 50 names and NPI conducted the polling.
“It’s very much like sports and very much like football,” said Mike Noble, CEO at NPI. “How can we grade candidates based on the data to see how strong they are electorally. Are they what the electorate is looking for in its future leaders.”
The highest-ranking Republican currently in office is state Treasurer Kimberly Yee at fifth, followed by other Democrats who hold state office to finish the top 10:
- Attorney General Kris Mayes,
- Secretary of State Adrian Fontes,
- Rep. Greg Stanton,
- Sen. Krysten Sinema and
- Gov. Katie Hobbs.
- Sinema, Gallego and Lake are running for U.S. Senate in what will be a pivotal seat for Republicans and Democrats as both parties seek control of the chamber.
- Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb is also running for Senate as a Republican and he ranks 11th on the power ranking list.
Noble said Gallego’s favorability score is a result of him appealing to voters statewide on a demographic level and his overall favorability among surveyed voters.
To generate the power scores, Noble surveyed more than 1,000 voters on a weighted scale to resemble Arizona’s voter population. Respondents were asked how favorably they viewed the people on the list, and their answers were combined with name recognition, political experience and demographic scores.
A handful of state legislators are also on the list: - Senate President Warren Petersen (16), R-Gilbert;
- Sen. Jake Hoffman (17), R-Queen Creek;
- House Minority Leader Lupe Contreras (21), D-Avondale;
- House Speaker Ben Toma (26), R-Peoria
- Rep. Analise Ortiz (28), D-Phoenix,
- Senate Minority Leader Mitzi Epstein (45), D-Tempe and
- Sen. Wendy Rogers, R-Flagstaff (47).
Several well-known MAGA candidates including Lake and former Republican Senate candidate and current U.S. House candidate Blake Masters didn’t rank highly on the list. - Masters ranked 49th while
- Reps. Andy Biggs and Paul Gosar ranked 46th and 43rd respectively.
- Among Republicans, these MAGA candidates had much higher rankings as Masters and Lake ranked second and third.
- Sinema ranked 11th among Republicans, the highest score from any non-Republican on the list.
“I think they do well with the base, but with … the moderate wing of the party; also, the true independent voters, they’re maybe not doing so well electorally with that other group statewide,” Noble said regarding the discrepancy for MAGA candidates between the overall rankings and Republican rankings.
Candidates like Lake and Masters may do well with Republicans, Noble said, but their notoriety among Democrats and independents contributes to a lower favorability score than other lesser-known MAGA candidates.
Not everyone on the list is a candidate for public office. - Some notable names include AZGOP Chairman Jeff DeWit at 12,
- Former Republican Governor Doug Ducey at 15 on the general rankings,
- Arizona State President Michael Crow at 31,
- Hobbs’ Chief of Staff Chad Campbell at 35 and
- Center for Arizona Policy President Cathi Herrod at 44.
Also on the list are Cindy McCain and Jack McCain,
- Cindy McCain ranked third and Jack McCain ranked fourth.
- Among Democrats, the pair ranked sixth and 12th respectively.
Noble said the rankings list, while not meant to be a predictor of election outcomes, can help determine how a candidate may do in a primary and general election setting, which require different campaign approaches with Arizona’s swing state status.
Jakob Thorington Arizona Capitol Times//November 21, 2023//
Listen to this articleTwo Democrats representing Arizona in Congress placed as the top two in a recent poll ranking the most favorable people for public office in the state.
- A recent power ranking list from Noble Predictive Insights in partnership with Arizona Capitol Times ranked the top 50 people in favorability for public office and found Rep. Ruben Gallego placed first in the pollster’s power score, followed closely by Sen. Mark Kelly.
- Coming in last on the list was 2022 Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake, who is running for U.S. Senate against Gallego.
The Capitol Times, using its expertise in politics, public policy and governance, came up with the list of 50 names and NPI conducted the polling.
“It’s very much like sports and very much like football,” said Mike Noble, CEO at NPI. “How can we grade candidates based on the data to see how strong they are electorally. Are they what the electorate is looking for in its future leaders.”
The highest-ranking Republican currently in office is state Treasurer Kimberly Yee at fifth, followed by other Democrats who hold state office to finish the top 10:
- Attorney General Kris Mayes,
- Secretary of State Adrian Fontes,
- Rep. Greg Stanton,
- Sen. Krysten Sinema and
- Gov. Katie Hobbs.
- Sinema, Gallego and Lake are running for U.S. Senate in what will be a pivotal seat for Republicans and Democrats as both parties seek control of the chamber.
- Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb is also running for Senate as a Republican and he ranks 11th on the power ranking list.
Noble said Gallego’s favorability score is a result of him appealing to voters statewide on a demographic level and his overall favorability among surveyed voters.
To generate the power scores, Noble surveyed more than 1,000 voters on a weighted scale to resemble Arizona’s voter population. Respondents were asked how favorably they viewed the people on the list, and their answers were combined with name recognition, political experience and demographic scores.
- Senate President Warren Petersen (16), R-Gilbert;
- Sen. Jake Hoffman (17), R-Queen Creek;
- House Minority Leader Lupe Contreras (21), D-Avondale;
- House Speaker Ben Toma (26), R-Peoria
- Rep. Analise Ortiz (28), D-Phoenix,
- Senate Minority Leader Mitzi Epstein (45), D-Tempe and
- Sen. Wendy Rogers, R-Flagstaff (47).
- Masters ranked 49th while
- Reps. Andy Biggs and Paul Gosar ranked 46th and 43rd respectively.
- Among Republicans, these MAGA candidates had much higher rankings as Masters and Lake ranked second and third.
- Sinema ranked 11th among Republicans, the highest score from any non-Republican on the list.
“I think they do well with the base, but with … the moderate wing of the party; also, the true independent voters, they’re maybe not doing so well electorally with that other group statewide,” Noble said regarding the discrepancy for MAGA candidates between the overall rankings and Republican rankings.
Candidates like Lake and Masters may do well with Republicans, Noble said, but their notoriety among Democrats and independents contributes to a lower favorability score than other lesser-known MAGA candidates.
- Some notable names include AZGOP Chairman Jeff DeWit at 12,
- Former Republican Governor Doug Ducey at 15 on the general rankings,
- Arizona State President Michael Crow at 31,
- Hobbs’ Chief of Staff Chad Campbell at 35 and
- Center for Arizona Policy President Cathi Herrod at 44.
- Cindy McCain ranked third and Jack McCain ranked fourth.
- Among Democrats, the pair ranked sixth and 12th respectively.
Noble said the rankings list, while not meant to be a predictor of election outcomes, can help determine how a candidate may do in a primary and general election setting, which require different campaign approaches with Arizona’s swing state status.
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