06 May 2024

Russia seizes more ground in Ukraine's east as Kyiv's forces await supplies

 

Russia throws more soldiers into Bakhmut meat grinder ahead of Putin's  Victory Day parade – POLITICO

Russia seizes more ground in Ukraine’s east as Kyiv’s forces await supplies

It will take weeks for US military aid to reach Ukraine, but NATO chief says it’s not too late for Kyiv to ‘prevail’.



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PM Shmyhal says he still can’t confirm that new US military aid has arrived in Ukraine

Ukraine’s PM Denys Shmyhal reports no confirmation of crucial US military aid arrival, necessary for enhancing defensive operations and countering Russian advances.
Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal on CBC late on 5 May 2024. Screenshot: Youtube/ CBC News

PM Shmyhal says he still can’t confirm that new US military aid has arrived in Ukraine

Speaking to CBC News, Ukraine’s Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said he cannot confirm the delivery of the US military aid to Ukraine after its approval last month, and Ukraine still waits the supplies as soon as possible.
Last fall, US President Joe Biden requested $95 billion in foreign aid, including $60.8 billion for Ukraine, but after a six-month delay due to Congressional Republicans. So far, Russia continues to gain ground in eastern Ukraine and intensify aerial attacks.

“We still cannot approve that we have this in Ukraine right now, but we are waiting for this ammunition, for air defense systems and missiles, for other military equipment, and especially long- and middle-range equipment,” Denys Shmyhal said.

Shmyhal said the latter is crucially needed on the front to change the situation, “not just deter Russian aggression on the front line, but also to cut their logistics and to have a possibility to push them from our occupied lands here in Ukraine.”



Earlier, The News York Times said that on 28 and 29 April, just four days after President Biden’s approval of the assistance, Ukraine received its first shipments of anti-tank missiles and 155mm artillery shells from the new US aid package, and Patriot missiles from Spain arrived in Poland on April 30, expected soon at the front lines.
The Ukrainian Prime Minister confirmed that Russia took advantage of the six-month-long delay in approving the US aid in Congress and seized Avdiivka City and several villages. He said it’s “not crucial,” but now Ukraine will have to reclaim the lost ground

Earlier this week, French President Emmanuel Macron said he would not rule out sending troops to Ukraine if Kyiv put in that request.

When asked under what circumstances would Ukraine ask for troops from another country, Shmyhal said that for now, Ukraine asks partners only for weapons and equipment. 
But, he says, if France or other ally of Ukraine would take a decision to bring their soldiers or instructors to Ukrainian soil, “we will appreciate this and I believe that it will [be] easier for us to push Russians out [of] our territory.”

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ISW: Ukraine must seize initiative on battlefield to counter Russian advantages

Waiting until 2025 to launch a counteroffensive would cede the theater-wide initiative to Russia for over a year, allowing it to shape conditions, a new report warns.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on 5 May that Ukraine should contest the theater-wide initiative as soon as possible, as ceding it to Russia for the entirety of 2024 would present Russia with several benefits.

Ukraine Invasion Updates | Critical Threats

According to the Financial Times, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan stated that Ukraine will look to conduct a counteroffensive operation to recapture Russian-occupied territory in 2025 after using US military assistance to blunt further Russian advances in 2024.

Sullivan said that US aid will not “instantly flip the switch” on the battlefield situation and expects Russian forces to continue making marginal advances for an unspecified time.

According to the ISW, a Ukrainian “active defense” into 2025 would cede the theater-wide initiative to Russian forces for over a year, allowing the Russian command to shape preferable conditions by determining the timing, location, and intensity of attacks, and controlling the resources Ukrainian forces expend over this protracted period.

A Russian milblogger also said that Russian forces can conduct glide bomb air strikes against Ukrainian positions for the remainder of 2024 if Ukraine does not launch a counteroffensive operation that pressures Russian forces this year.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on 5 May that Ukraine should contest the theater-wide initiative as soon as possible, as ceding it to Russia for the entirety of 2024 would present Russia with several benefits.
  • According to the Financial Times, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan stated that Ukraine will look to conduct a counteroffensive operation to recapture Russian-occupied territory in 2025 after using US military assistance to blunt further Russian advances in 2024.
Sullivan said that US aid will not “instantly flip the switch” on the battlefield situation and expects Russian forces to continue making marginal advances for an unspecified time.
According to the ISW, a Ukrainian “active defense” into 2025 would cede the theater-wide initiative to Russian forces for over a year, allowing the Russian command to shape preferable conditions by determining the timing, location, and intensity of attacks, and controlling the resources Ukrainian forces expend over this protracted period.
  • A Russian milblogger also said that Russian forces can conduct glide bomb air strikes against Ukrainian positions for the remainder of 2024 if Ukraine does not launch a counteroffensive operation that pressures Russian forces this year.
U.S. aid package delay led to battlefield advantages for Russia, says  Ukraine PM
Uploaded: May 5, 2024
The six-month delay on the U.S. military aid package has led to tactical disadvantages for Ukraine, says Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal. Shmyhal talks about the country's relationship with NATO and ...

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As Putin begins another 6-year term, he is entering a new era of  extraordinary power in Russia - The Economic Times
Putin Has Staked Russia's Resources on Victory in Ukraine. Can the West  Match Him? - WSJ
Ukraine should seize initiative on battlefield as soon as possible – ISW |  Ukrainska Pravda
The ISW assesses that tactically significant Russian advances northwest of Avdiivka and the potential threat of a Russian offensive operation against Kharkiv Oblast are directly linked to Russia’s control over the theater-wide initiative and its ability to indiscriminately conduct glide bomb strikes along the frontline, constrained and degraded Ukrainian defensive operations.
The ISW reported that Ukraine’s ability to liberate its territory and conduct counteroffensive operations rests on the decisions in the West, Russia, and Ukraine, and any external efforts to impose a timeline on Ukrainian counteroffensive operations ignore the reality of the battlefield situation.

Other takeaways from the report:

  • The Russian military reportedly redeployed a battalion of the 76th Airborne (VDV) Division to Kursk Oblast as part of a larger ongoing Russian effort to gather an operationally significant force for a possible future Russian offensive operation against northeastern Ukraine and Kharkiv City.
  • The Russian military is reportedly preparing and forming the Northern Grouping of Forces from elements of the Leningrad Military District (LMD) to primarily operate in the Belgorod-Kharkiv operational direction.
  • European intelligence agencies reportedly warned their governments that Russia is planning to conduct “violent acts of sabotage” across Europe as part of a “more aggressive and concerted effort” against the West.
  • Russian forces recently advanced near Kupiansk and Robotyne.

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