SOMETHNG NEW IN POLITICS

French far-right leader Bardella says he backs Ukraine, but rules out sending troops or long-range weapons.

Jordan Bardella, the leader of the far-right French National Rally party, said on June 19 that he would continue supporting Ukraine if elected prime minister, but ruled out sending French troops or supplying the country with long-range weapons. The Kyiv Independent reported. Following a bruising defeat in the elections for the European Parliament earlier in June, French President Emmanuel Macron called for snap elections to be held on June 30 and July 7. National Rally is ahead in current polls, and Bardella could be the next prime minister if the party is able to form a governing coalition. Macron would nonetheless remain president and retain control of most of France's foreign policy decisions.

UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT For: 2024-06-19 GRUMPY JUN 19   READ IN APP   Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 60 sources daily, much of which forms the basis of the script. While the Podcast is on hiatus I will make this Draft available here both on my own Substack and The People’s Media for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis. Share Grumpy’s Substack ALONG THE CONTACT LINE  GSAFU Morning Report The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 22:00 on June18 stated that day 847 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine was about to begin. During the past day, 113 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 0 missile strikes, 33 air strikes, 482 drone strikes and almost 2,900 artillery strikes across the positions of Ukrainian forces. At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continue to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deep into the territory of Ukraine. Air Force Daily Report On the night of June 19, 2024 Russian occupiers attacked the 21st Strike BpLA of the type "Shahed" from the directions of Primorsko-Akhtarsk (Russia) and Cape Chauda (TOT of Crimea). As a result of the combat, 19 enemy strikes of Shahed type were knocked down in Kherson, Mykolaiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovograd, Khmelnytskyi and Lviv regions. The Khortytsia operational-strategic group (Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )  Kharkiv axis: There were 6 combat engagements today in this region, the enemy attacked Ukrainian positions in the vicinity of Vovchansk and Lyptsi 4 times.  Kupyansk axis: The enemy attacked Ukrainian positions 12 times in the vicinity of Synkivka, Stepova Novoselivka and Pischane. There is ongoing fighting, the situation is under control. Lyman axis: The enemy attacked Ukrainian positions 13 times in the vicinity of Makiivka, Terny, the Serebryanskyy Forest and Hryhorivka. None were successful but the battle continues in the area of Terny Siversk axis: The enemy attacked Ukrainian positions 13 times in the vicinity of Verkhnokamianske, Spine, Vyimka and Rozdolivka. The situation is under control Kramatorsk axis: The enemy made 6 attacks in the vicinity of Chasiv Yar, Ivaniske, Pivinichne and New York  The Tavria operational-strategic group (Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)  Pokrovsk axis: The enemy assaulted Ukrainian positions 37 times in the last day in this area Oleksandropil, Novooleksandrívka, Sokil, Yevhenívka, Novoselívka Persha, Novopokrovske, Karlivka. Defense Forces are taking measures to prevent the opponent's advancement. Kurakhove axis: The enemy attacked 3 times in the area of Krasnohorivka. The situation is under the control of Defence Forces. Vremika axis: The enemy made 2 assaults in the vicinity of Urozhaine and Novodarivka  Orikhiv axis: The enemy made two unsuccessful attacks in the area of Novodanilivka and Mala Tokmačka. The Odesa operational-strategic group (Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.) Prydniprovsk axis: The situation has not changed significantly. TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES Nothing to report. THE HOME FRONT US arms company to produce munitions in Ukraine Northrop Grumman, an American weapons manufacturer, plans to produce ammunition in Ukraine bankrolled by Ukrainian money, the Breaking Defense magazine reported on June 18, citing a company official. Breaking Defense reports. Kyiv has been courting Western arms producers in an effort to localise domestic production and decrease reliance on foreign supplies. Northrop's agreement is the first known deal of its kind between a U.S. defence company and a Ukrainian government for producing arms in Ukraine. "We've been working, as you know, in Ukraine to produce medium (calibre munitions). That's our first project that's paid for with Ukrainian dollars," said David Bartell, the company's director of international business, during the Eurosatory arms show in Paris. "We are looking to expand that into tank ammo, 155 mm (artillery shells), others as we find innovative processes." The U.S. recently signed a bilateral security agreement with Ukraine under which it pledged to bolster Ukraine's defence industrial base, "including through cooperative defence research and development." The state-owned Ukrainian Defense Industry (Ukrboronprom) signed a memorandum with U.S.-based Amentum Services last week on plans to set up a joint enterprise to restore and maintain American-made armoured vehicles. In December 2023, Kyiv and Washington signed a statement of intent on the co-production of weapons. Russia shells hospital in Kherson The Russian military shelled a hospital in Kherson, damaging two ambulances and smashing windows in one of the buildings. The Kherson Regional Military Administration reported. "Russian troops continue to attack medical institutions in the Kherson region," the statement reads. As noted, one of the hospitals in Kherson came under another enemy attack, where at least three Grad multiple rocket launchers were fired. The RMA informs that the shells hit the garage where the ambulances were parked. Two cars were damaged as a result of the shelling. In addition, windows were smashed in one of the buildings of the healthcare facility. There were no casualties among the hospital staff or patients. Odesa resident who corrected Russian missile strikes on the city was sentenced to 15 years in prison A resident of Odesa, who corrected Russian missile strikes on the city and provided intelligence to the FSB, was sentenced to 15 years in prison. The court sentenced an FSB agent who operated in Odesa region to 15 years in prison. In particular,  the enemy accomplice adjusted Russian air strikes on Odesa, passed information to the Russians about the consequences of the hits and tried to identify air defence points defending Odesa. This was reported by the SBU, UNN reports .  To direct enemy fire, he recorded the geolocations of potential targets and then sent them to his Russian supervisor via messenger. In addition, after the shelling of the city, he would go around the places of "arrivals" to find out their consequences and "report" to the FSB. At the same time, the agent was trying to identify the locations of air defence missile systems defending Odesa. SBU officers detained a Russian agent in March 2023 on an attempt to pass intelligence to the aggressor. According to the investigation, the enemy accomplice is a local resident, an ideological supporter of racism. RUSSIAN WORLD Putin extends defence ministry purge, hands job to a relative Russian President Vladimir Putin sacked four deputy defence ministers on Monday and appointed a relative to fill one of the resulting vacancies. Reuters reported. The reshuffle marked the latest stage in a radical shakeout which Putin launched in May when he unexpectedly removed his long standing defence minister Sergei Shoigu. More than two years into the war in Ukraine, Putin has used the changes to signal that he wants to clear out wastage and corruption in the ministry and harness Russia's war economy more effectively to serve the needs of soldiers at the front. In the latest changes, Putin sacked deputy defence ministers Nikolai Pankov, Ruslan Tsalikov, Tatiana Shevtsova and Pavel Popov, according to Kremlin decrees. He appointed Anna Tsivileva, the daughter of his late cousin, as a deputy defence minister whose responsibilities will include improving social and housing support for military personnel. Her husband Sergei Tsivilev is Russia's energy minister. Leonid Gornin, previously first deputy finance minister, will now serve as first deputy defence minister under Defence Minister Andrei Belousov, an economist with no military experience who was named last month to replace Shoigu. Gornin's main tasks are "to increase the transparency of financial flows and ensure efficient spending of budget funds", the defence ministry said. Also named as deputy defence ministers were Oleg Savelyev and Pavel Fradkov, the son of former Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov. Fradkov will oversee the management of property, land and construction relating to the military. AFU attacks oil depots in Krasnodar Krai with Neptun missiles US think tank the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in its June 18 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment stated that on the night of June 17-18, the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) struck russian oil depots in the Rostov Oblast and Krasnodar Krai with domestically produced Neptun missiles this was the second time these weapons have been used to strike on Russian soil. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on May 31 that Ukrainian forces used Neptune missiles to strike an oil depot near the port of Kavkaz, Krasnodar Krai, and former Ukrainian Naval Deputy Chief of Staff Andriy Ryzhenko stated that the May 31 strike was the first Ukrainian strike using Neptunes against ground targets. Chushka and Kavkaz are port towns near the Kerch Strait and are roughly 250 kilometres from the current frontlines and within the 300-kilometre range of the US-provided long-range ATACMS. The US has not allowed Ukrainian forces to use existing US-provided weapons to strike legitimate targets in Russian territory for much of the full-scale invasion thus far and still prohibits Ukraine from using ATACMS anywhere in Russia. Ukraine first debuted Neptune anti-ship missiles against Russian naval targets in April 2022 and has had to further develop and modify these missiles to conduct deep strikes against Russian territory — a process that took over two years during which Russian forces in Russia enjoyed protection against Western-provided weapons. SW continues to assess that the US should allow Ukraine to strike legitimate military targets within Russia's rear with US-provided weapons, especially given that standing US prohibitions on how Ukrainian forces may use US-provided weapons will not prevent Ukraine or other Western weapons from striking Russia. b NEWS WORLDWIDE Russia, North Korea sign mutual defence pact The leaders of North Korea and Russia signed an agreement on Wednesday that deepens their military cooperation to include a mutual defence pledge to help each other if attacked, with the North's Kim Jong Un calling the new ties an "alliance". Reuters reported on June 19. Kim spoke at a rare press conference following his meeting with President Vladimir Putin in Pyongyang, announcing the signing of a "comprehensive strategic partnership" that the Russian leader said included defensive elements. "The comprehensive partnership agreement signed today provides, among other things, for mutual assistance in the event of aggression against one of the parties to this agreement," said Putin, who was making his first visit to North Korea in 24 years. The reaction from China, the North's main political and economic benefactor and an increasingly important ally for Moscow, has been muted. At the start of their summit, Kim expressed "unconditional support" for "all of Russia's policies", including "a full support and firm alliance" for Putin's war with Ukraine. Putin said Moscow was fighting the hegemonic, imperialist policy of the United States and its allies, Russian media reported. "We highly appreciate your consistent and unwavering support for Russian policy, including in the Ukrainian direction," Russian state news agency RIA quoted Putin as saying at the start of the talks. Russia intensified aircraft activity over Baltic region due to NATO drills Lithuania’s Ministry of Defence says the recent increase in Russian aircraft activity in the Baltic region is linked to NATO military exercises in Lithuania and the Baltic Sea. LRT reports.  “The Russian aircraft activity in the region may have to do with the international exercises BALTOPS, Iron Wolf 2024-1, which are currently taking place in the Baltic region,” the ministry told BNS on Monday. Earlier in the day, it said NATO fighter jets stationed in the Baltic states as part of NATO’s Baltic Air mission were scrambled 11 times last week to identify and escort Russian aircraft that violated the rules when flying in international airspace over the Baltic Sea. In total, seven SU-24 tactical bombers, five SU-27 fighter jets, four SU-30 fighter jets, two SU-34 fighter-bombers, four IL-20 reconnaissance aircraft, two AN-30 reconnaissance and aerial mapping aircraft, and once an IL-96 passenger plane were identified and escorted. Most of these aircraft were flying without flight plans, had their onboard transponder off and were not in contact with the regional flight control centre. Most of them took off in the Kaliningrad region and returned there after flying in international airspace, while some of them flew from Kaliningrad to mainland Russia or flew above mainland Russia by entering international airspace. During the previous week, NATO jets in Lithuania were also scrambled 11 times to identify and escort Russian aircraft flying in international airspace. India has decided to abandon major arms deals with Russia India has reduced military-technical cooperation with Russia in favor of the United States, sources in the government of the republic tell Reuters.  New Delhi intends to distance itself from its once largest supplier and abandon large-scale arms deals. The pivot to the West comes as Russia's ability to meet its obligations under existing contracts has been undermined by the war in Ukraine, the sources said . The United States, on the contrary, is increasing its influence in the Indo-Pacific region. Russia supplied 65% of India's weapons purchases of more than $60 billion during the last two decades, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, but the Ukraine war hastened the impetus to diversify its weapons base. “We are unlikely to sign any major military deal with Russia. That would be a red line for Washington,” said Nandan Unnikrishnan, a Russia expert at the New Delhi-based Observer Research Foundation think tank. That view comes despite Moscow's offers, described by four Indian government sources, among them a senior security official who recently retired, as including platforms such as the most advanced Kamov helicopters and Sukhoi and MiG fighter jets, with the added fillip of joint manufacturing in India. All four sources spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive subject. The foreign and defence ministries of India and Russia did not respond to requests for comment. Russia has publicly urged India to step up defence ties, but Prime Minister Narendra Modi has turned his focus to domestic production with Western technology, experts and officials said. Such efforts would better fit Modi's "Make in India" programme to encourage domestic manufacturing, as he makes a rare bid for a third term in general elections due by May. India expects to spend nearly $100 billion on defence orders over the next decade, its defence minister has said.