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CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
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September 2024
Our monthly conflict tracker highlights ten conflict risks in October.
Israel opened a new phase of its war with Hizbollah in Lebanon, launching a major bombing campaign and ground invasion that killed over 1,000 people, displaced hundreds of thousands and decimated Hizbollah’s senior leadership (see the Conflict in Focus). Under pressure at home and regionally, and seeing its own deterrence compromised, Iran on 1 October launched a massive barrage of ballistic missiles at Israel. Absent a ceasefire and hostage deal in Gaza, the risk of all-out war in the Middle East, that pits Iran and its allies in Yemen, Iraq and Syria against Israel and/or U.S. forces, is at an all-time high.
Fighting escalated in Sudan between the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese army in Greater Khartoum and North Darfur. Hostilities could intensify further in the coming weeks as both sides mobilise for major offensives.
Jihadists launched an unprecedented assault on Mali’s capital Bamako, targeting highly sensitive sites for the military and raising concerns about further attacks in October, including on urban areas.
Georgia will hold parliamentary elections on 26 October in a context of deepening political polarisation, raising the risk of major unrest.
Fears about security at the upcoming Biodiversity Summit from 21 October to 1 November in Colombia’s Cali City rose, as we warn in our new Amazon entry, after authorities discovered a car loaded with explosives near a police station there.
CrisisWatch identified six deteriorated situations in September. Notably:
Mexico’s Senate approved several controversial constitutional changes introduced by the ruling party, including a sweeping judicial overhaul and the National Guard’s formal integration into the Defence Ministry. Meanwhile, a rupture in the ranks of the Sinaloa cartel led to weeks of open fighting in Culiacán city.
In Colombia, militants from the guerrilla movement National Liberation Army (ELN) attacked an army base in Arauca department that killed two soldiers and injured around 20 more, prompting the government to break its peace talks with the group.
Aside from the scores of conflict situations we regularly assess, we tracked significant developments in Bolivia, Eswatini, Jordan, Moldova, New Caledonia (France), Nile Waters, Papua New Guinea, South Africa, Tanzania, U.S. (Internal) and U.S.-Russia.
CONFLICT RISK ALERTS
Amazon Georgia Iran Iraq Israel/Palestine Lebanon Mali Sudan Syria Yemen
South China Sea
Maritime and aerial encounters between Philippines and China near disputed shoals in South China Sea (SCS) continued to strain ties.
Maritime tensions persisted between Manila and Beijing. After Philippines and China blamed each other for 31 Aug collision of coast guard vessels near contested Sabina Shoal, Philippine military 2 Sept announced that it had monitored over 200 Chinese vessels in several areas (including near Sabina Shoal) within Manila’s Exclusive Economic Zone during prior week – highest number recorded this year. Pair 11 Sept held further round of talks under bilateral consultation mechanism in China, where they agreed to “continue discussions on areas of cooperation”; Manila reaffirmed its position on Sabina Shoal, while China demanded withdrawal of Coast Guard vessel BRP Teresa Magbanua – anchored at Sabina Shoal since April – from area. Philippine officials 15 Sept said BRP Teresa Magbanua had left area, with new vessel replacing it “immediately”; China’s state-owned media Global Times same day claimed move showed “China’s successful response thwarted the Philippines’ goals”. Manila reported Chinese navy helicopter 23 Sept shadowed and approached fisheries bureau aircraft near disputed Scarborough Shoal.
Vietnamese fishing vessel suffered attack. Vietnamese state media reported that ten fishermen were wounded in attack on 28 Sept on fishing boat near Paracel Islands, claimed by both Vietnam and China; report did not specify which country was responsible, but official of Vietnam’s Quang Ngai province told media boats were Chinese.
Spat surfaced between China and Malaysia. Beijing demanded Malaysia immediately halt all activities in oil-rich area off Malaysia’s Sarawak state in north west Borneo Island, accusing it of encroaching on areas claimed under China’s “10-dash line”, according to protest note sent to Malaysian embassy in China in Feb that was leaked to Philippine media late Aug. Malaysia’s PM Anwar Ibrahim 5 Sept commented activities were not “intentionally provocative”.
Military drills persisted across region. China and Singapore 1-5 Sept commenced joint maritime exercise at port in southern China. U.S., Italy and Australia 8-11 Sept held drills in SCS. China 28 Sept announced air and naval exercises near Scarborough Shoal. Manila 28 Sept announced exercise including vessels from Australia, Japan, Philippines, U.S. and, for first time, New Zealand, within Philippine’s Exclusive Economic Zone.
As of 30 Sept, Taiwan detected 449 Chinese aircraft around island, of which at least 325 either crossed unofficial “median line” or entered Taiwan’s defence identification zone (ADIZ); notably, Taipei 26 Sept spotted 43 planes within ADIZ, highest of month. Taiwan sighted 213 Chinese naval vessels in surrounding waters. Taiwan 26 Sept expressed concern about surge of Chinese military activity in previous two days. Meanwhile, two German warships 13 Sept navigated strait, marking first transit in more than two decades; Beijing next day warned that Germany’s activity “increases security risks”. U.S. patrol and reconnaissance aircraft 17 Sept flew through Taiwan Strait, drawing criticism from China.
U.S. and China continued dialogue amid Washington’s support for Taiwan. Top U.S. Indo-Pacific commander 9 Sept conducted video call with China’s Southern Theater commander; pair 18-20 Sept met in Hawaii during U.S.-hosted Indo-Pacific Chiefs of Defence Conference. U.S. and China 12-15 Sept convened 18th Defence Policy Coordination Talks in Beijing. After U.S. State Department 17 Sept approved $228mn arms sale to Taipei, Beijing next day announced sanctions against nine U.S. firms selling arms; Taiwan 12 Sept reported it was due to receive first batch of F-16 fighter jets by late Sept. On international diplomatic front, U.S. and EU 11 Sept called for Taiwan’s meaningful participation in international organisations. U.S. and UK 14 Sept reiterated need for stability in Taiwan Strait and called for “peaceful resolution of cross-Strait issues”.
Cross-strait political tensions persisted. Taiwanese President William Lai 1 Sept argued Beijing’s motive for invading Taiwan is to alter “rules-based world order” to achieve hegemony. Taiwan’s Ministry of Agriculture 2 Sept announced that China lifted its ban on importing pomelos; Lai 11 Sept questioned motivation as approved suppliers were limited to Hualien County, governed by opposition Kuomintang. Court 6 Sept found three retired Taiwanese intelligence officers guilty of spying for China; authorities 18 Sept charged another 23 individuals, including eight military officers.
Europe & Central Asia
Armenia
Peace efforts with Azerbaijan intensified, Baku reported small border incidents throughout month, and relations with Russia remained tense.
Armenia-Azerbaijan peace efforts intensified. Yerevan and Baku 2 Sept made public an agreement signed late Aug setting forth regulations for border commissions to jointly demarcate and delimit their shared frontier. Announcement came at critical juncture in bilateral negotiations. Azerbaijani President Aliyev 6 Sept announced almost 80% of peace treaty had been agreed upon and expressed optimism about prospects for peace. Armenian and Azerbaijani FMs 26 Sept met with U.S. Sec State Antony Blinken on sidelines of UN General Assembly (UNGA); pair agreed to step up efforts toward finalising peace treaty, which they named as Agreement on Peace and Establishment of Interstate Relations. PM Pashinyan next day told UNGA that peace “is within reach”. Key issues remain, however, including Baku’s insistence that Armenia removes references to Nagorno-Karabakh from its constitution.
Baku reported border incidents as Yerevan called for investigative mechanism. Azerbaijan continued to report Armenian gunfire at military positions in traditionally calm areas of its exclave, Nakhchivan, and Kelbajar district. Notably, Ministry of Defence 5 Sept claimed Armenian forces had opened fire at its positions in Kelbajar’s Zivel settlement; 29 Sept accused them of firing in direction of Nakhchivan’s Babek district, which Armenia denied. Yerevan reiterated suggestion to establish investigative mechanism to prevent and resolve border incidents.
In important international developments. Investigative Committee of Armenia 18 Sept announced seven people allegedly received training and payment from Russia in bid to overthrow govt, and would be charged accordingly; allegations came amid souring Russia-Armenia relations. FM Mirzoyan 26 Sept boycotted meeting with FMs of Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization members. Meanwhile, EU and Yerevan 9 Sept announced start of talks on visa liberalisation.
Azerbaijan
Peace efforts with Armenia intensified, Baku reported small border incidents throughout month, and ruling party won parliamentary elections.
Azerbaijan-Armenia peace efforts intensified. Baku and Yerevan 2 Sept made public an agreement signed late Aug setting forth regulations for border commissions to jointly demarcate and delimit their shared frontier. Announcement came at critical juncture in bilateral negotiations. President Aliyev 6 Sept announced almost 80% of peace treaty had been agreed upon and expressed optimism about prospects for peace. Azerbaijani and Armenian FMs 26 Sept met with U.S. Sec State Antony Blinken on sidelines of UN General Assembly (UNGA); pair agreed to step up efforts toward finalising peace treaty, which they named as Agreement on Peace and Establishment of Interstate Relations. Armenian PM Pashinyan next day told UNGA that peace “is within reach”. Key issues remain, however, including Baku’s insistence that Armenia removes references to Nagorno-Karabakh from its constitution.
Baku reported small incidents along frontline. Azerbaijan continued to report Armenian gunfire at military positions in traditionally calm areas of its exclave, Nakhchivan, and Kelbajar district. Notably, Ministry of Defence 5 Sept claimed Armenian forces had opened fire at its positions in Kelbajar’s Zivel settlement; 29 Sept accused them of firing in direction of Nakhchivan’s Babek district, which Armenia denied. Yerevan reiterated suggestion to establish investigative mechanism to prevent and resolve border incidents.
Ruling party won snap polls. Azerbaijan 1 Sept held snap parliamentary elections, which ruling party won comfortably, though several international institutions expressed concerns about electoral conditions. Notably, Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe 2 Sept said poll “did not offer voters genuine political alternatives”.
Belarus
Minsk shot down two Russian drones over its airspace; International Criminal Court (ICC) launched ‘preliminary examination’ into crimes against humanity over opposition crackdown.
Belarus downed Russian drones in its airspace. Air Force 5 Sept destroyed two Russian drones over western Gomel city that were targeting Ukraine but which veered off course; exiled opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya same day said “these [Russian] incursions happen more often”, warning Ukraine war “is creeping into Belarus”. Meanwhile, Russian President Putin 25 Sept proposed changes to Russia’s nuclear doctrine, noting it “reserves the right to use nuclear weapons” if Russia and Belarus are attacked (see Russia).
ICC launched ‘preliminary examination’ into crimes against humanity. Lithuania 30 Sept referred top officials in Belarus to ICC, alleging it had “reasonable grounds” to believe that they have committed “crimes against humanity – including deportation, persecution and other inhumane acts” since April 2020; ICC prosecutor Karim Khan same day confirmed he would conduct “preliminary examination” into request to determine whether to open investigation. Meanwhile, Lukashenko 4 Sept signed decree pardoning 30 political prisoners convicted of “protest offences”, 16 Sept pardoned 37 more; EU High Representative Borrell 18 Sept said EU shares “joy and relief” with released prisoners, but urged “Belarusian authorities to immediately, and unconditionally, release all political prisoners”.
Cyprus
UN Sec Gen met separately Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot leaders at UN General Assembly, raising hope of diplomatic progress on Cyprus question.
UN continued engagement with bilateral meetings. One day before meeting with UN Sec Gen Antonio Guterres on sidelines of UN General Assembly in New York, Republic of Cyprus President Christodoulides 22 Sept expressed hope that upcoming meetings will lead to “concrete announcements for the resumption of negotiations, or at least a joint meeting”; Republic of Cyprus same day asserted “The Greek Cypriot side is ready for negotiations, even tomorrow, on the condition that the basis of any initiative must be the agreed framework and the decisions of the Security Council”. Addressing assembly, Christodoulides 25 Sept reiterated willingness to begin talks “today”. “Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus” (“TRNC”) leader Ersin Tatar 28 Sept met Guterres. Tatar 30 Sept announced that he agreed to Sec-Gen’s proposal to meet with Republic of Cyprus president for informal dinner in mid-Oct.
Ankara condemned defence cooperation between U.S. and Republic of Cyprus. Türkiye 11 Sept issued statement criticising signing of defence roadmap between U.S. and Republic of Cyprus, asserting it undermined U.S. neutrality on Cyprus issue and jeopardised security of Turkish Cypriot community; Ankara in recent months has accused Republic of Cyprus of becoming logistical hub for transfer of weapons to Israel for its war in Gaza (see Israel-Palestine).
Georgia
Political parties ramped up their election campaigns ahead of 26 October poll, which could trigger massive unrest; U.S. imposed more sanctions on individuals for ‘undermining democracy’.
Political parties’ electoral campaigning gained momentum. Preparations for 26 Oct parliamentary polls ramped up amid deepening political polarisation and fears election could trigger political turbulence and protests. President Zurabishvili 16 Sept called on two major opposition forces – Strong Georgia alliance and For Georgia party – to forge united front and take on ruling Georgian Dream party, but negotiations quickly faltered amid deep fragmentation within opposition. Meanwhile, Georgian Dream 10 Sept selected party’s billionaire founder, Bidzina Ivanishvili, as its lead candidate. During subsequent rally in Gori city, Ivanishvili 14 Sept once again blamed 2008 war with Russia on “external forces” and former govt led by United National Movement (UNM), promised to prosecute UNM officials. Russian FM Lavrov 29 Sept welcomed remarks and expressed Moscow’s readiness to help Georgia “normalise relations” with breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Meanwhile, Russia 11 Sept accused U.S. of plans to interfere in election “to prevent the victory of Georgian Dream”; U.S. dismissed claims as “completely false”.
Lawmakers adopted more repressive legislation amid tense relations with West. Parliament 17 Sept adopted Georgian Dream’s so-called Family Values bill, which eliminates or affirms absence of LGBTQ+ residents’ rights to marriage, adoption, legal and medical gender affirmation, and education and public speech on related topics. EU High Representative Josep Borrell 18 Sept urged authorities to withdraw legislation, warning it would further endanger Georgia’s EU path. Comments came amid worsening relations with West over ‘foreign agents’ bill, which triggered protests in April-May that were violently repressed. U.S. 16 Sept imposed sanctions on several security officials in response to crackdown and visa restrictions on over 60 Georgians and their families for their role in “undermining democracy”.
Kosovo
EU efforts to facilitate normalisation talks with Serbia continued; authorities indicted 45 suspects on terrorism charges for 2023 attack in northern Banjska village.
EU efforts on normalisation between Pristina and Belgrade persisted. EU Special Representative Lajčák 6 Sept met with Deputy PM Bislimi in capital Pristina and 10 Sept met with Serb President Vučić in Serbian capital Belgrade to prepare terrain for EU-mediated meeting on normalisation in Belgian capital Brussels. Days later, Vučić 13 Sept laid out Serbia’s conditions for progress in dialogue, which included: local elections in Serb-majority northern Kosovo, return of ethnic Serbs to police force and judiciary, and withdrawal of govt’s special police forces from north; PM Kurti next day said demands were “not peaceful at all”. Lajčák 17 Sept convened separate meetings with chief negotiators in Brussels, but expressed “regret” that Dialogue failed to bring sides together in trilateral format. Kurti 27 Sept met with U.S. Assistant Sec State James O’Brien and Lajčák during UN General Assembly to discuss normalisation process; Lajčák said sides agreed that “there is no alternative to the swift implementation of the Agreement on the Path to Normalisation”.
Authorities indicted 45 suspects over 2023 Banjska attack. Prosecutors 11 Sept indicted 45 people, including Milan Radoičič (former VP of Serbian List party), on terrorism charges for their alleged role in Sept 2023 armed stand-off with police in Banjska village that left four dead.
Kyrgyzstan
Foreign Ministry removed Taliban from its terrorist list, while Central Asian leaders and German Chancellor held summit in Kazakhstan.
Bishkek removed Taliban from its terrorist list. Afghanistan’s Taliban authorities 5 Sept published statement welcoming Bishkek’s removal of the Taliban from its terrorist list; Foreign Ministry next day confirmed announcement, saying move was designed to “secure regional stability and further develop ongoing dialogue”. Decision followed Kazakhstan’s Dec 2023 removal of Taliban from its own list of designated terrorist organisations, signalling growing regional efforts to engage with Kabul.
Kazakhstan hosted Germany-Central Asia summit. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz 17 Sept met with Central Asian leaders in Kazakh capital, Astana, for second edition of Germany-Central Asia summit first launched in German capital, Berlin, in 2023. Talks primarily focused on trade, with notable attention paid to prospects for energy cooperation amid German efforts to access alternative energy resources. Earlier, watchdog Human Rights Watch 12 Sept urged Scholz to use the opportunity to push for “significant improvement in human rights in the region”.
Moldova
U.S. sanctioned Russian media outlets amid growing concerns about interference in October’s simultaneous presidential election and constitutional referendum.
U.S. 13 Sept announced sanctions on Russian media outlet RT and several related entities for “their connection to Russia’s destabilising actions abroad”, with specific reference to Moldova, which 20 Oct will hold presidential election and constitutional referendum on EU membership. U.S. warned that RT “will almost certainly coordinate with traditional Russian intelligence services to try to manipulate the outcome of the October 2024 Moldovan presidential election in Moscow’s favour”. Chișinău 25 Sept blocked seven websites, claiming they pose threat to national security, including Russian news agency RIA Novosti, as well as “Nu. Nu. Nu Acum” (“No. Not Now”), which has urged Moldovans to vote against EU accession. National Security Adviser Stanislav Secrieru 27 Sept warned Russia had launched “unprecedented onslaught” of hybrid tactics, including disinformation and “influx of illicit funds”, ahead of votes. Meanwhile, Supreme Court 24 Sept upheld decision of Electoral Commission rejecting application of businessman and fugitive Ilan Shor’s pro-Russian Victory party to participate in either process.
Russia (Internal)
Moscow launched counteroffensive in Kursk region, while President Putin reiterated nuclear threats amid potential end to ban on use of Western long-range missiles in Russia.
Russia launched counter-offensive in Kursk region. In response to Kyiv’s incursion into Kursk region in Aug, which authorities 23 Sept said had resulted in dozens of civilian deaths, Russian forces 10 Sept launched counteroffensive, reportedly recapturing over ten villages. Ukrainian military 18 Sept claimed its forces halted offensive, though local sources reported continued Russian attacks in different parts of bridgehead controlled by Ukrainian forces. Ukrainian army 23 Sept said one of its brigades broke through new section of border in Kursk, while Russian Defence Ministry 29 Sept said it repelled six new Ukrainian attempts to enter region. Secretary of Security Council Shoigu 10 Sept ruled out talks with Ukraine while its forces remain there. Meanwhile, Ukrainian strikes persisted. Notably, Kyiv 10 Sept launched 144 drones into Russia, including over capital Moscow.
Draft budget revealed plans to hike spending on national defence. Govt 30 Sept submitted draft of three-year federal budget to State Duma. According to draft, Russia plans to increase military spending by 22.6% in 2025 compared to 2024, meaning spending on defence and national security will exceed 8% of GDP and account for 41% of all federal spending – highest level since collapse of Soviet Union.
Putin spotlighted nuclear arsenal amid debates about use of Western weapons in Russia. U.S. Sec State Antony Blinken 10 Sept warned Russia had received ballistic missiles from Iran and “will likely use them within weeks in Ukraine”; Russian officials continued to deny allegations. UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy next day said delivery of Iranian missiles “changes the debate” regarding support for Ukraine, which has long lobbied for permission to use Western-supplied long-range weapons in Russia (see Ukraine). Putin 12 Sept said such a move would mean “that NATO countries […] are at war with Russia”; 25 Sept announced plans to lower threshold for use of nuclear weapons from “existential” to “critical” threats and said Russia would consider attack by any non-nuclear state backed by nuclear state as “joint attack on the Russian Federation”.
Ruling party comfortably won regional and local elections. Putin’s United Russia party 8 Sept won resounding victory in regional and local elections held across country (including in Russian-annexed Crimea); EU 9 Sept called “these ‘so-called’ elections” in Crimea “null and void”.
Russia/U.S.
Washington imposed sanctions on Russian media outlets.
U.S. State Department 13 Sept announced sanctions on Russian media channel RT and several related entities for their “destabilising actions abroad”; according to statement, RT has “moved beyond being simply a media outlet and has been an entity with cyber capabilities” that has “engaged in information operations, covert influence and military procurement”. Days later, Meta – which owns Facebook, WhatsApp and Instagram – 16 Sept announced it would ban several Russian media outlets, including RT, from its platforms “for foreign interference activity”.
Tajikistan
Rights group accused authorities of human rights violations against Pamiri minority in Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast; Central Asian leaders and German Chancellor held summit in Kazakhstan.
Watchdog warned of human rights abuses targeting Pamiri minority. Watchdog Amnesty International 11 Sept published report spotlighting “ongoing persecution and human rights violations against the Pamiri minority”, who reside in Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast, which saw anti-govt protests 2021-2022; group warned that “systemic discrimination against the Pamiri community has become ever more entrenched” since unrest.
Kazakhstan hosted Germany-Central Asia summit. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz 17 Sept met with Central Asian leaders in Kazakh capital, Astana, for second edition of Germany-Central Asia summit first launched in German capital, Berlin, in 2023. Talks primarily focused on trade, with notable attention paid to prospects for energy cooperation amid German efforts to access alternative energy resources. Earlier, watchdog Human Rights Watch 12 Sept urged Scholz to use the opportunity to push for “significant improvement in human rights in the region”.
Türkiye
Govt continued maximum pressure campaign against Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and Islamic State (ISIS), while pursuing high-level engagement with Greece.
Operations against PKK remained concentrated in northern Iraq and Syria. Ministry of Defence 8 Sept announced security forces had “neutralised” 16 PKK members in northern Syria and Iraq. Clashes with PKK 9 Sept killed Turkish soldier in Iraq’s Gara area (see Iraq). Military 13 Sept announced it had “neutralised” senior PKK member allegedly responsible for group’s activities in Makhmur refugee camp in northern Iraq. Security forces 17 Sept announced they had “neutralised” 17 PKK members across Iraq and northern Syria. During meeting with U.S. Under Secretary for Management John Bass, FM Hakan Fidan 17 Sept reiterated Ankara’s strong objections to U.S. support for People’s Protection Units (YPG) in northern Syria, urging Washington to sever ties.
Authorities continued anti-Islamic State (ISIS) operations countrywide. Police during Sept detained at least 122 individuals with suspected links to ISIS. Notably, police 10 Sept detained 27 individuals across 13 provinces on terrorist financing charges.
Govt and Greece continued diplomatic engagement despite tensions. After Fidan and Greek counterpart Giorgos Gerapetritis late Aug met on sidelines of EU Gymnich gathering, President Erdoğan and Greek PM Kyriakos Mitsotakis 24 Sept met on sidelines on UN General Assembly and agreed to explore whether talks including on demarcating continental shelf and economic exclusive zones could resume. Earlier, Greek Defence Minister Nikos Dendias 14 Sept visited Megisti Island, located some 2km from Turkish coast, emphasising strategic importance of area and constitutional obligation to protect country’s maritime rights; in response, ruling party AKP spokesperson 16 Sept accused Dendias of being “provocateur” and expressed concern about “radical actors” in Greece seeking to undermine ongoing dialogue efforts.
Ukraine
Fighting raged in Donetsk region while Russian aerial bombardments persisted; President Zelenskyy drummed up support for Ukraine during U.S. visit, urging Western backers to ease restrictions on use of long-range weapons in Russia.
Russian forces edged closer to Pokrovsk and Vuhledar towns in east. Russia kept up its grinding advance on Pokrovsk, strategic transport hub in eastern Donetsk region, while continuing attacks near Toretsk and Chasiv Yar towns. Further south, Russian forces stepped up their offensive near Vuhledar and Kurakhove towns, whose capture could clear Moscow’s way to seize more territory in southern part of Donbas. Meanwhile, Russian President Putin 5 September said capturing eastern Donbas area was “primary objective”, and claimed Ukraine only “weakened itself” by launching offensive into Russia’s Kursk region in Aug (see Russia).
Russian airstrikes persisted across Ukraine. Russian aerial bombardments continued almost daily, notably targeting Ukraine’s battered energy infrastructure. Strike on central Poltava city 3 Sept hit military academy and nearby hospital, killing dozens and injuring hundreds, 28 Sept strike on hospital in Sumy region killed at least ten. Ukraine 12 Sept accused Russia of using strategic bomber to strike civilian ship in Black Sea carrying grain to Egypt. Meanwhile, Ukrainian strikes on Russian infrastructure persisted (see Russia).
Govt reshuffle took place. Parliament 5 Sept approved President Zelenskyy’s long-expected cabinet overhaul, in which he appointed ten new ministers. Notably, Andrii Sybiha replaced Dmytro Kuleba as Foreign Minister. Reshuffle largely cosmetic, however, as key decisions are made by Zelenskyy and his powerful chief of staff, Andriy Yermak.
Zelenskyy sought to drum up support for Ukraine during U.S. visit. Zelenskyy 22 Sept arrived in U.S. for UN General Assembly (UNGA), urging allies to end ban on Kyiv’s use of Western long-range missiles in Russia. Zelenskyy 25 Sept warned of potential Russian attacks on nuclear power plants and called for “just peace” during his UNGA speech, next day met with U.S. President Biden to discuss his “Victory Plan” after Biden announced “surge in security assistance for Ukraine”. Zelenskyy later met with U.S. presidential candidates, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump; latter claims he could quickly end war should he become President.
Latin America & Caribbean
Amazon
Authorities discovered car bomb in Cali city, raising fears about security at COP16 Biodiversity Summit in October; illegal loggers encroached on Indigenous land in Peru.
In Colombia, police found car bomb in Cali city month before COP16. Authorities 4 Sept found car loaded with explosives near police station in Cali. This marked fourth attempted terrorist attack in city in 2024 and increased concerns about security for COP16 Biodiversity Summit, which city will host 21 Oct-1 Nov, after Iván Mordisco, head of EMC (FARC dissident group) faction in July threatened to target event. Should security threats escalate, govt and organising committee may be forced to either relocate or cancel summit.
In Peru, Indigenous group faced violence from illegal loggers. NGO Forest Stewardship Council 13 Sept suspended certification of logging company accused of encroaching on traditional lands of Mashco Piro, an uncontacted Indigenous group. Decision came amid growing threats to Indigenous groups from land invaders. Notably, reports emerged in Sept that loggers late Aug trespassed into Mashco Piro land, prompting retaliatory attacks with bows and arrows that left two loggers dead.
Land and environmental defenders at high risk, notably in Colombia and Brazil. NGO Global Witness 10 Sept published report in which it named Colombia and Brazil as most dangerous countries for environmental defenders in 2023, with Colombia recording 79 killings nationwide. Report noted some progress in Brazil, however, including increased funding for Amazon protection and reinstatement of Indigenous affairs agency, dismantled under former president Jair Bolsonaro.
Forest fires raged through Amazon. Wildfires spread across Amazon due in large part to prolonged drought. Brazil’s environmental minister 17 Sept said many fires had been started by criminals, however, and accused them of “climate terrorism’’. More fires in coming months could force many Amazon populations from their homes.
Bolivia
March led by former president Evo Morales turned violent amid clashes with counter-protesters that injured dozens.
Accompanied by thousands of supporters, former President Morales 17 Sept embarked on week-long “March to Save Bolivia” from Caracollo village to capital La Paz, one day after President Arce accused Morales of attempting to overthrow him. March began peacefully, but clashes erupted between Morales’ supporters and pro-govt protesters in Vila Vila municipality, injuring dozens; more clashes 22 Sept broke out in El Alto town, which is adjacent to La Paz. Violence came amid growing political tensions between Arce and Morales as they compete for candidacy of ruling Movement for Socialism party ahead of Aug 2025 presidential election. Ombudsman’s Office and Catholic Church 17 Sept called for dialogue between the two factions to avoid escalating violence. Morales 23 Sept issued ultimatum to Arce, urging him to make cabinet changes within twenty-four hours or face more protests; Foreign Ministry same day rejected ultimatum and said Morales was threatening democratic order.
Colombia
Militants from guerrilla movement National Liberation Army (ELN) killed two soldiers in attack on remote army base, prompting govt to suspend peace talks with group; insecurity persisted, with notable rise in attacks against state targets.
Govt suspended talks with ELN. Amid stepped-up ELN assaults on infrastructure and military, guerrilla group 17 Sept launched homemade rockets at army base in Puerto Jordán, rural area of Araquita municipality (Arauca department), killing two soldiers and injuring dozens. Petro same day said attack “practically ended the peace process”, govt negotiating team 18 Sept said they had suspended talks pending indications from ELN that they are serious about peace. Group’s leader Antonio García 19 Sept stated peace processes often continue in midst of military operations and this should not be exception. Meanwhile, Minister of Defence Iván Velásquez 18 Sept pledged to reactivate full military campaign against ELN.
Govt pursued dialogue processes with other armed and criminal groups. Govt and FARC dissident group Segunda Marquetalia 21 Sept met in Tumaco city, Nariño department, sides next day announced resumption of negotiations in Oct. Following govt’s Aug announcement about opening talks with armed criminal group Gaitanista Army of Colombia (EGC), U.S. 24 Sept sanctioned EGC leaders, including members of negotiating team, complicating dialogue. Meanwhile, EGC continued operations against other armed outfits. Notably, clashes in Briceño and Segovia municipalities (Antioquia department) between EGC on one hand and EMC (FARC dissident group) and ELN on the other confined hundreds of families.
EMC faction attacked civilian targets in areas along Pacific coast. Explosion from speedboat in Timbiquí town (Cauca department) 10 Sept damaged over 100 homes. While unconfirmed, attack likely attributable to EMC faction led by Iván Mordisco, making it one of several attacks by group in Sept against institutional and civilian targets. UN 13 Sept said explosion forced 2,400 Afro-descendant and Indigenous individuals into confinement. Meanwhile, authorities 4 Sept found car bomb in Cali city, Valle de Cauca department, raising fears about insecurity at Oct Cop16 Biodiversity Summit; Mordisco in July threatened to target event (see Amazon).
In another important development. NGO Global Witness 10 Sept named Colombia as most dangerous country for environmental defenders, with 79 assassinations in 2023.
Ecuador
Criminal groups targeted prison officials, probes into high-level corruption continued, and govt strengthened ties with U.S.
Prison officials faced increased attacks and security threats. Armed attackers 3 Sept killed director of prison in Sucumbíos province and injured two other prison officers. Director of Litoral Penitentiary in Guayaquil city 12 Sept was killed in similar attack, which injured one other prison officer. Families of both directors blamed state for failing to provide victims with police escorts despite high-risk nature of their roles (Ecuador’s jails have long been criminal groups’ strongholds). Drone 5 Sept exploded over La Roca, maximum security prison in Guayaquil, damaging roof; authorities later said perpetrators likely hoped attack would force officials to transfer inmates to other prisons.
Anti-corruption efforts continued. Attorney General’s Office 16 Sept requested 37 defendants in “Metastasis case” be called to trial for alleged participation in organised crime; the sweeping anti-corruption investigation targeted criminal network of now deceased drug trafficker Leandro Norero, uncovering plan to allegedly secure impunity for indicted suspects in his network through collusion with public officials; Office of State Prosecutor next day requested, among other things, that those convicted pay $4.2mn in reparations.
Ecuador strengthened security ties with U.S. Quito and Washington 13 Sept signed $25mn security cooperation agreement, which aims to provide technical support, capacity building and equipment to security and justice institutions. Meanwhile, President Noboa 16 Sept announced he would seek changes to constitution to allow presence of foreign military bases in Ecuador, which he argued could help in fight against transnational crime.
El Salvador
Authorities renewed state of exception, lawmakers elected new magistrates to Supreme Court of Justice, and reports shed light on threats to journalists and free speech.
Authorities renewed state of exception for 30th time. Lawmakers 3 Sept again renewed state of exception, first imposed in March 2022 to tackle gang violence. Hundreds 15 Sept gathered on Salvadoran Independence Day in capital San Salvador to protest measure, accusing govt of corruption and human rights abuses.
Lawmakers elected new magistrates to Supreme Court of Justice. Parliament 23 Sept elected seven new magistrates to 15-member Supreme Court of Justice. Constitutional provisions allow renewal of only one third of judiciary every three years, but seven were appointed after one judge resigned and another died. NGO Due Process of Law Foundation raised concerns about “independence of the judiciary and the democratic system in El Salvador”.
Reports unveiled threats to journalists and free speech. Association of Journalists of El Salvador 3 Sept published report revealing “attacks and aggressions directed at journalists during the first half of 2024”, warned such violations seek to “delegitimise the function of journalism as a whole”. Meanwhile, media outlet Prensa Comunitaria 15 Sept published recordings made by late Alejandro Muyshondt, former National Security Advisor to President Bukele, during his conversations with govt officials; recordings revealed plans to set up surveillance operation against journalists, media outlets and opposition politicians.
Haiti
UN Security Council approved one-year renewal of Multinational Security Support Mission (MMS) amid efforts to stem gang violence; Transitional Presidential Council (TPC) created electoral council.
Police battled gangs, notably in capital Port-au-Prince. Govt 2 Sept extended state of emergency to entire country as efforts to stem gang violence continued. Notably, police 6 Sept demolished wall being constructed by 400 Mawozo gang in Croix-des-Bouquets neighbourhood, aimed at blocking major road linking Port-au-Prince to border with Dominican Republic. Clashes with gangs in and around capital 5 and 8 Sept resulted in two police casualties. Deadly clashes 11 Sept erupted between three gangs within G9 coalition, which operate in Port-au-Prince’s Cité Soleil neighbourhood, illustrating fragility of gang alliances.
MMS operations continued as UN Security Council renewed mission’s mandate. Joint patrols and operations by personnel from MMS and Haitian police intensified in and around Port-au-Prince. Jamaica and Belize 12 Sept sent advanced teams to prepare for deployment of more Caribbean personnel to mission. Kenyan president William Ruto 21 Sept announced 600 more Kenyan police officers would deploy Oct-Nov. Meanwhile, TPC President Edgard Leblanc 26 Sept expressed support for proposal to transform MMS into UN peacekeeping operation during remarks to UN General Assembly, saying it would ensure more stable funding and enhance mission’s capabilities. UN Security Council 30 Sept approved one-year renewal of mission; Russia and China vetoed push to transition it into peacekeeping operation.
TPC created Provisional Electoral Council. TPC 18 Sept established electoral council responsible for organising elections after delays due to disagreement among nine sectors tasked with nominating representatives; council only contains seven of nine members required as human rights and women’s rights sectors were unable to unanimously select representative. Govt same day created Truth, Justice and Reparations Commission. Meanwhile, three TPC members accused of attempting to bribe President of National Credit Bank in July faced growing demands to step down, but all three refused.
In another important development. UN Security Council 27 Sept sanctioned gang leader Luckson Elan as well as former parliamentarian Prophane Victor, first member of Haitian elite to be sanctioned by UN for his support to gangs.
Mexico
Senate approved controversial constitutional reforms introduced by ruling MORENA party, including sweeping judicial overhaul and formal integration of National Guard into Defence Ministry; fierce clashes erupted between rival Sinaloa cartel factions.
MORENA-majority Senate approved controversial constitutional reforms. In spite of heavy protests, senators 11 Sept approved judicial reform mandating that, among other things, all federal judicial personnel be elected by popular vote. Critics say this could undermine judiciary’s autonomy and open door for greater criminal influence, though MORENA argues judges will now be held accountable to the people. Opposition accused MORENA of unduly pressuring opposition senators to change sides to achieve two-thirds majority needed to pass law, which came into effect 15 Sept. Senate 25 Sept approved constitutional reform to formally integrate National Guard into Defence Ministry, increasing military power over public security.
Clashes erupted between rival Sinaloa Cartel factions. Heavy fighting 9 Sept broke out in Sinaloa state capital Culiacán between Sinaloa Cartel’s two dominant factions, one headed by sons of former leader “El Chapo” (known as the Chapitos), and another led until recently by “El Mayo” Zambada; escalation followed late July capture of El Mayo, who claims Chapitos faction kidnapped him and put him on U.S.-bound flight. Hostilities resulted in 122 deaths and dozens of disappearances as of 29 Sept and paralysed much of public life in Culiacán. Military did little to restore calm, however; army general in charge of area 16 Sept said criminal groups, not military, were responsible for halting violence. Group’s open split could cause major ripples beyond Sinaloa, given its presence in nearly all Mexican states and abroad.
Violence persisted elsewhere. In Nayarit state, confrontations between Sinaloa and Jalisco cartels 12 Sept killed eleven people in Huajicori municipality. In Chihuahua state, clashes between Sinaloa Cartel and La Linea criminal group 16 Sept killed eight combatants in Coronado municipality. In Michoacán state, Los Viagras crime group 12 Sept allegedly assassinated prominent businessman in Buenavista city after he refused to pay extortion demands; murder prompted local agriculture producers to halt activities for five days to demand justice for crime and better security.
Nicaragua
UN condemned Nicaragua’s ever-worsening human rights situation as govt passed series of repressive reforms.
Repression of opposition, Indigenous groups and religious freedom persisted. UN Human Rights Office 3 Sept released report detailing deteriorating human rights situation in Nicaragua, including persecution of “any individual or organisation that operates independently”, violence against Indigenous peoples and people of African descent, and restrictions on religious freedoms; UN Human Rights Chief Volker Türk said crisis “requires an urgent change of path from the Government”. Despite these calls, authorities introduced new repressive reforms. Notably, National Assembly 3 Sept approved legislation allowing citizens to be prosecuted in absentia and their assets seized for alleged crimes such as money laundering and terrorism; 11 Sept expanded Cyber Crime law enabling authorities to impose prison sentences for anyone who publishes social media posts that provoke “alarm”. UN 3 Sept warned regime will likely use laws to limit free speech of exiled citizens and foreigners. Meanwhile, regime 5 Sept released 135 political prisoners and expelled them to Guatemala under deal with U.S. and Guatemala, bringing number of citizens deprived of nationality and property to 451 since 2023.
In another important development. President Ortega’s brother and top military strategist during Sandinista revolution, Humberto Ortega, 30 Sept died; he had been under house arrest since May after criticising president and his wife Rosario Murillo during media interview.
Venezuela
Opposition candidate Edmundo González fled to Spain as govt sought to consolidate President Maduro’s victory in contested July election; UN warned of increasingly repressive state apparatus.
Opposition candidate fled to Spain amid continued election controversy. Amid Maduro govt’s continued denial of opposition victory in July polls, court 2 Sept issued arrest warrant for opposition candidate Edmundo González for series of alleged crimes, including conspiracy and falsification of official documents. González 7 Sept fled to Spain, dimming hopes among opposition supporters for resolution of electoral dispute, though he 12 Sept vowed to continue struggle from exile “until the end”. Govt 18 Sept published document alleging González had agreed to recognise Maduro’s victory; González same day said he signed document under duress.
Govt arrested several foreign nationals amid stepped-up U.S. pressure on Caracas. Maduro govt mid-Sept announced arrest of four U.S. citizens, two Spaniards and one Czech national, along with seizure of about 400 rifles, for alleged involvement in plot to overthrow Maduro; late Sept announced arrest of fifth U.S. citizen. Officials claimed plot was joint operation between U.S. Central Intelligence Agency and Spain’s National Intelligence Centre; Washington and Madrid denied any involvement. Announcement came amid growing U.S. pressure on Caracas following election. Notably, U.S. 2 Sept seized executive jet belonging to Venezuelan govt in Dominican Republic, claiming its purchase violated sanctions; 12 Sept imposed fresh sanctions on 16 senior Venezuelan officials for role in election fraud and subsequent crackdown.
UN decried intensifying govt repression, particularly in aftermath of July election. Annual report of UN Human Rights Council’s fact-finding mission on Venezuela (covering period Sept 2023-Aug 2024) 17 Sept accused govt of serious human rights violations, which it said were part of “coordinated plan to silence, discourage and quash opposition”; it also said crackdown following July election represented “a new milestone in the deterioration of the rule of law”. Group of almost 40 countries, led by U.S. and Argentina, 26 Sept issued statement demanding full electoral transparency and end to human rights violations in Venezuela.
Middle East & North Africa
Algeria
President Tebboune re-elected in expected landslide win amid vote counting “irregularities”; bilateral tensions with UAE lulled but stayed high with Mali and Morocco.
Tebboune re-elected amid initial confusion over precise result. Provisional tallies of 7 Sept vote showed incumbent won 94.7% landslide, while reported initial turnout of 26.5% rose to 48.03% mere hours later; amid confusion, election campaigns of all three contestants – Tebboune, Front des Forces Socialistes national secretary Youcef Aouchiche and Abdelaali Hassani Charif of Mouvement de la société pour la paix – 8 Sept issued joint statement accusing election body of “irregularities” in provisional votes. Constitutional Court 14 Sept confirmed Tebboune won presidential election with 84.3%, Charif 9.6% and Aouchiche 6.1%; turnout also revised down to 46.1%, but surpassing previous 2019 election levels of 39.9%. During 17 Sept swearing in oath, Tebboune promised to hold national political dialogue to reach “true democracy”.
Tensions with UAE lulled, but remained high with Mali. In potential sign of warming ties after months of animosity, Emirati President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan 9 Sept congratulated Tebboune on re-election, while govt suggested heads of state may meet soon. Algiers-Bamako tensions, however, stayed high as authorities remained concerned about Malian military operations near shared border and potential spillover into Algeria, while Malian officials at UN General Assembly 28 Sept accused govt of harbouring militants (see Mali). Meanwhile, govt 26 Sept announced it would impose visa requirements on Moroccans, accusing Rabat of using visa-free entry to undermine its stability.
In another important development. Officials from state-owned oil and gas company Sonatrach 16 Sept met delegation from American energy company Chevron in Houston, U.S., to discuss shale gas development in south.
Egypt
Diplomatic ties with Türkiye, U.S. and Saudi Arabia reinforced but tensions remained high with Ethiopia; rights groups criticised ongoing detention of social media activist.
Relations with Türkiye improved, U.S. granted full aid support to Cairo. U.S. 11 Sept granted full $1.3bn annual aid package, waiving human rights requirement that previously reduced total, partly in response to Egypt’s geopolitical role. In sign of warming ties, President Sisi 4 Sept visited Turkish President Erdoğan in first presidential visit in 12 years, signing 17 agreements, including on bilateral trade. Meanwhile, as govt courted Gulf financing, Saudi Arabia 17 Sept announced $5bn allocation to investment projects; as short-term economic outlook improved, PM Madbouly 19 Sept declared end of rolling power cuts.
Tensions remained high with Ethiopia amid growing Somalia ties. Amid deepening Cairo-Somalia security cooperation that drew Addis Ababa’s ire, FM Abdelatty 1 Sept sent letter to UN Security Council calling progress with Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) “unacceptable” and saying Ethiopia’s “provocative approach towards its neighbours” threatens regional stability. Govt 22 Sept delivered another shipment of weapons to Somalia, further angering Ethiopia. Meanwhile, intelligence chief Abbas Kamel and Abdelatty 14 Sept visited Eritrean President Afwerki and other officials in Eritrean capital Asmara (see Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia).
Civil society groups criticised ongoing detention of social media activist. Prominent activist and blogger Alaa Abd el-Fattah, imprisoned in 2019 and sentenced in 2021 to five years imprisonment for sharing fake news, not released 29 Sept as supporters had hoped; local and international civil society groups 26 Sept claimed ongoing detention in violation of legal code by not counting pre-trail period; rights group Amnesty International same day said authorities had “dreadful track record of indefinitely detaining political dissidents.”
Iran
Israel’s bombing campaign in Lebanon killed over 1,000 as well as Hizbollah’s long-time leader, raising risk of wider regional war involving Tehran in coming weeks.
Regional tensions soared as Israel opened new front in Lebanon. Israel opened new phase of war with Hizbollah with thousands of airstrikes in Lebanon that killed over 1,000, including Hizbollah’s senior commanders and long-time leader Hassan Nasrallah (see Lebanon). FM Abbas Araghchi 29 Sept warned Nasrallah’s assassination “will not go unanswered”, even as Iranian officials insisted setbacks for Hizbollah were not crippling. In major retaliation, Iran 1 Oct launched massive ballistic missile barrage at Israel (await November edition of CrisisWatch for more).
U.S. and allies rebuked Tehran over alleged missile transfer to Russia. U.S. Sec State Antony Blinken 10 Sept confirmed publicly shipment of missiles from Iran to Russia would likely be used “within weeks in Ukraine”. In response, U.S. Treasury 10 Sept sanctioned ten individuals, six entities and four vessels linked to transfer, while E3 (UK, France and Germany) same day denounced move, labelling it “direct threat to European security”. EU same day announced member states had been presented “substantive set of decisive and targeted measures” for sanctions. FM Abbas Araghchi 11 Sept denied allegations, accusing West of acting “on faulty intelligence and flawed logic”. G-7 14 Sept condemned Russia-Iran military cooperation, warning of “new and significant measures”. U.S 25 Sept issued sanctions on dozen entities and vessels associated with oil transfers on behalf of Iranian Revolutionary Guards/Hizbollah.
Amid concerns over nuclear advancement, govt expressed readiness for talks. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) 9 Sept reported Iran had continued to build up stockpiles of enriched uranium, with “no progress in resolving the outstanding safeguards issues”. U.S., UK, France and Germany 12 Sept warned continued lack of improvement would necessitate “further action”, likely alluding to censure resolution at IAEA. Pezeshkian 16 Sept denied allegations of Iran seeking nuclear weapons, while FM Araghchi 23 Sept expressed readiness to restart nuclear negotiations and 24 Sept held talks with IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi. At UN General Assembly, Pezeshkian 24 Sept reiterated readiness to “engage with JCPOA participants”.
Iraq
Rockets targeted U.S. facility and Iran-backed groups stepped up attempted strikes on Israel as new phase of war in Lebanon began; amid growing risk of wider Middle East war, such attacks could intensify in coming weeks.
Rockets struck U.S. facility, Iran-backed groups increased drone attacks on Israel. Following attack by Iran-backed militia in Aug on Ain al-Asad base that injured at least five U.S. personnel, unclaimed rockets 10 Sept targeted U.S. Victory base at Baghdad airport; group affiliated with Shi’i cleric and opposition leader Muqtada al-Sadr’s Saraya al-Salam was likely perpetrator, as Islamic Resistance in Iraq denied involvement. Amid Israel’s ongoing offensive in Gaza and new phase of war with Hizbollah (see Israel-Palestine and Lebanon), Islamic Resistance in Iraq 15, 16, 18, 22, 23, 25, 27, 28 Sept claimed unverified drone attacks on Israeli cities; Israeli military announced interception of drones from Iraq on 18, 22, 23 Sept. After urging all “resistance” groups to step up attacks on Israel in support of Palestine and Lebanon, Islamic Resistance member Kata’ib Hizbollah 25 Sept warned that it would retaliate for any Israeli attack in Iraq by targeting Israel and “American presence” in Iraq.
Iranian President visited Iraq, meeting federal and regional leaders. In first visit by Iranian President in four years, President Pezeshkian 11-13 Sept visited Iraq for his first international trip since taking office; in capital Baghdad, Pezeshkian met PM Sudani and President Abdul-Latif Rashid to discuss removal of Kurdish Iranian opposition groups from border areas and sign 14 Memoranda of Understanding. In sign of easing tensions with Erbil, Pezeshkian 12 Sept met Kurdistan’s President Nechirvan Barzani, PM Masrour Barzani and Kurdistan Democratic Party leader Masoud Barzani.
Türkiye continued operations against PKK. Notably, Turkish drone 5 Sept struck car, killing three, in Sulaymaniyah governorate. Clashes with PKK 9 Sept killed Turkish soldier in Gara area. Turkish drone 16 Sept killed PKK member in Makhmour camp; clashes same day killed two PKK members in Gara area.
U.S. & govt announced troop withdrawal timeline. U.S. and Iraq 27 Sept said U.S.-led coalition will wind down by end of 2025; final agreement, however, may be in jeopardy due to escalation between Israel and Hizbollah.
Israel/Palestine
Israel unleashed bombing campaign and ground invasion in Lebanon, killing over 1,000 as hostilities with Hizbollah reached scale unseen since 2006 war; risk of wider regional war could grow in coming weeks.
In Lebanon, Israel opened new phase of war with Hizbollah. Israeli security cabinet 17 Sept made return of Israelis displaced from north due to 11 months of hostilities with Hizbollah official war aim. Israel 17-18 Sept allegedly caused thousands of communication devices purportedly owned by Hizbollah members to explode, killing at least 37 and injuring almost 3,000, including many civilians. Israeli Defence Ministry 18 Sept announced “new phase” of war and deployment of troops to Lebanese border. Marking most severe escalation since 2006 war, Israel 23-24 Sept started bombing campaign, conducting thousands of airstrikes countrywide ostensibly targeting Hizbollah weapons stockpiles that killed over 1,000, including dozens of children, injured at least 6,000 and displaced hundreds of thousands. In response, Hizbollah continued to fire rockets into Israel; 25 Sept targeted Mossad HQ in Israel’s Tel Aviv city with ballistic missile that Israel intercepted. Israel 27 Sept killed Hizbollah’s long-time leader Hassan Nasrallah. Israel 30 Sept-1 Oct commenced ground incursions in Lebanon (see Lebanon).
Israel continued operations in Gaza, killing hundreds of Palestinians in Sept. Israeli PM Netanyahu 2 Sept effectively rejected terms of ceasefire-hostage deal on table since May by insisting on Israeli control of Philadelphi corridor. Israel continued aerial bombardment and ground operations, particularly in Beit Hanoun, Gaza city, Khan Younis, Deir al-Balah, and Rafah; Israeli forces killed over 900 Palestinians during Sept, bringing official death toll since 7 Oct 2023 to at least 41,615.
Israeli raids in West Bank persisted. Settler violence and Israeli operations continued, killing dozens of Palestinians, bringing death toll since 7 Oct to at least 693. Notably, Israeli forces 5-6 Sept concluded 10-day operation in Jenin and Tulkarem cities, longest in West Bank since 2002, which killed at least 50 Palestinians. Palestinian attacks killed seven Israeli security personnel, as indications pointed to more sophisticated explosions and greater coordination among militants.
Jordan
Jordanian gunman killed three Israelis at King Hussein (Allenby) Bridge crossing between Jordan and occupied West Bank.
Lone gunman 8 Sept arriving from Jordan opened fire at Israeli security guards, killing three, at King Hussein (Allenby) Bridge, which is sole international crossing into Israeli-occupied West Bank. Israeli authorities 8 Sept closed crossing until 10 Sept and all other crossings with Jordan for the day. Jordanian Interior Ministry 8 Sept claimed shooter was acting “individually”; ministry 17 Sept said it is working to release two Jordanian citizens arrested by Israeli authorities in alleged connection to attack. Attack came amid upsurge in deadly Israeli raids conducted in West Bank in recent weeks, killing dozens of Palestinians (see Israel-Palestine).
Lebanon
Israel unleashed bombing campaign and ground invasion in Lebanon, killing over 1,000 as hostilities with Hizbollah reached scale unseen since 2006 war; risk of wider regional war could grow in coming weeks.
Israel opened new phase of war with Hizbollah. Israeli security cabinet 17 Sept made return of Israelis displaced from north due to 11 months of hostilities with Hizbollah official war aim. Israel 17-18 Sept allegedly caused thousands of communication devices purportedly owned by Hizbollah members to explode, killing at least 37 and injuring almost 3,000, including many civilians. Hizbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah 19 Sept said attacks crossed “all red lines”. Israeli Defence Ministry 18 Sept announced “new phase” of war and deployment of troops to Lebanese border. Israel 20 Sept struck capital Beirut, killing at least 45, including three children and top Hizbollah commander Ibrahim Aqil in Dahiyeh suburb. In response, Hizbollah 22 Sept targeted Israel’s Ramat David airbase east of Haifa city, injuring three Israelis in Kiryat Bialik city, in far-reaching attack deep inside Israel. Marking most severe escalation since 2006 war, Israel 23-24 Sept commenced bombing campaign, conducting thousands of airstrikes countrywide ostensibly targeting Hizbollah weapons stockpiles that killed over 1,000, including dozens of children, injured at least 6,000 and displaced hundreds of thousands; Israel’s bombing on 23 Sept marked deadliest day for Lebanon since 1975-1990 civil war. In response, Hizbollah continued to fire missiles into Israel; 25 Sept targeted Mossad HQ in Israel’s Tel Aviv city with ballistic missile that Israel intercepted. Israeli strike 29 Sept targeted Kola district in Beirut, closest strike to city centre, killing three Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine leaders. After assassinating numerous Hizbollah commanders, Israel 27 Sept killed Hizbollah’s long-time leader Hassan Nasrallah. Hamas 30 Sept said Israeli airstrike killed Hamas leader, Fateh Sherif Abu el-Amin, along with family in Tyre city. Israel 30 Sept-1 Oct commenced ground incursions in Lebanon; Hizbollah deputy leader Sheikh Naim Qassem 30 Sept said Hizbollah is ready for Israeli ground invasion and will keep fighting until Gaza ceasefire. Major escalation between Israel and Hizbollah raises risk of regional conflagration (see Iran, Iraq, Syria and Yemen).
Libya
Dispute over central bank management saw compromise after threatening to cause economic and political crisis, but tensions between rival govts remained high.
Political deadlock over central bank leadership moved towards resolution. Court of Appeals in eastern city of Benghazi 3 Sept ruled as illegal western-based Presidential Council’s Aug decision replacing Siddiq Elkebir as central bank governor; Elkebir, however, remained in exile amid apparent security threats. In attempt to resolve crisis, UN mission 2 Sept onwards organised talks between eastern House of Representatives (HoR), capital Tripoli-based High State Council (HSC) and Presidential Council (PC). UN 26 Sept announced agreement between HoR and HSC on new Central Bank governor, Naji Issa, and confirmed Maraai al-Baraasi as deputy; HoR 30 Sept voted to endorse bank’s new leaders, while international actors welcomed agreement. Dispute over management heavily limited banking operations as international financial institutions maintained their suspension of cooperation with central bank. Elkebir 12 Sept claimed bank cannot access foreign accounts or oil revenues to cover govt expenditures or facilitate imports. Tripoli-based authorities repeatedly denied any issue with foreign currency transactions; some traders, however, noted foreign currency purchases in Libyan banks suspended and approval of letters of credits also halted. Meanwhile, operations at eastern oil fields remained widely limited, heavily reducing exports.
Eastern parliament asserted end of western govt mandate. In further sign of political tensions, HoR 19 Sept officially declared expiration of mandate of Tripoli-based Government of National Unity (GNU); decree recognised administration led by eastern-based PM Hamad as “sole executive authority [until] unified govt is elected”. Meanwhile, Tripoli court 25 Sept suspended Aug election of Khaled Mishri as president of HSC amid lawsuit filed by outgoing president Mohamed Tekkala.
Insecurity persisted amid visit from U.S. military officials. Forces led by eastern military commander Khalifa Haftar 18 Sept arrested journalist Ikram Rajab and two other women in Benghazi. U.S. Africa command military delegation 23 Sept met with GNU PM Dabaiba in Tripoli and Commander Haftar in Benghazi in bid to increase security cooperation. Insecurity continued; rival armed groups in west Tripoli 12 Sept clashed along strategic coastal road.
Saudi Arabia
Govt continued public diplomacy on Gaza and deepened engagement with Egypt, Russia and China.
Riyadh continued public support of Palestine. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman 1 Sept held separate calls with Turkish President Erdoğan and Egyptian President Sisi to discuss coordination of Arab and Muslim countries’ efforts on Palestine. Foreign Ministry 3 Sept condemned Israeli PM’s call for continued Israeli troop presence at Philadelphi corridor on Gaza-Egypt border and declared support for Palestinian statehood. FM Prince Faisal bin Farhan 13 Sept attended summit in Spanish capital Madrid to discuss two-state solution. Crown Prince 18 Sept said kingdom would not recognise Israel without Palestinian state.
Saudi Arabia increased cooperation with Egypt, engaged Russia and China. FM bin Farhan 10 Sept announced plans for Saudi-Egyptian cooperation council during visit to Egyptian capital Cairo. In move likely aimed at countering United Arab Emirates’ growing influence in Egypt, Crown Prince 16 Sept reportedly ordered sovereign wealth fund to invest $5bn in “first phase” of investment in Egypt. President Putin 5 Sept thanked Saudi Arabia for its role in U.S.-Russia prisoner exchange in Aug. Russian FM Sergei Lavrov 9 Sept met Crown Prince in capital Riyadh to discuss developments including Gaza and Saudi-Russian oil cooperation. Saudi Arabia 11 Sept hosted fourth Saudi-Chinese Joint Committee to discuss increasing cooperation in issues including politics, security, energy, trade and technology; engagement highlights kingdom’s policies of balancing and hedging between regional and global rivals.
Syria
Israeli bombing in Lebanon triggered wave of displacement into Syria and raised risk of wider regional war between Iran/Iran-backed forces and Israel/U.S.
Israel’s war in Lebanon brings displacement and escalation risks to Syria. Israel 23-24 Sept started nationwide bombing campaign in Lebanon as it opened new phase of war with Hizbollah (see Lebanon); UNHCR 30 Sept said at least 100,000 people, many Syrians, fled to Syria, adding to country’s already dire humanitarian situation. After Israel 27 Sept killed Hizbollah’s chief Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut, Iranian-backed militias 28 Sept launched drone at U.S. base at Conico gas field. Unidentified airstrikes next day killed 17 militiamen in Deir ez-Zor and Al-Bukamal. Earlier, major Israeli operation involving airstrikes, drones and reportedly ground forces 8 Sept targeted “military sites”, including alleged Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-affiliated Scientific Studies and Research Center, near Masyaf city, Hama province; attack reportedly killed 27, including four soldiers, 14 Iran-backed militants and six civilians. Syrian army 24 Sept claimed intercepting Israeli missiles targeting Tartous port city.
In east and north west, sporadic clashes continued. Notably, Iran-backed groups and SDF 1 Sept clashed in Abu Hardoub town, Deir ez-Zor province. SDF shelling 11 Sept injured two members of Arab tribes near Al-Bukamal. Iran-backed groups 15 Sept launched at least three drones at U.S. Kharab al-Jir base, Hasakah province. SDF and govt forces 20 Sept clashed in Deir ez-Zor. Unidentified strike 29 Sept killed 15 Iran-backed militants in Deir ez-Zor. In north west, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham attack 4 Sept reportedly killed 12 govt soldiers in Latakia province; govt shelling 20 Sept reportedly killed two civilians in Taftanaz town, Idlib province.
After period of decline, Islamic State (ISIS) attacks resurged. Notably, clashes following ISIS ambush 4 Sept killed seven govt forces in Athriyah area, Hama province; ISIS attack 15 Sept killed five members of Lebanese Hizbollah-affiliated militia in same area. ISIS 13 Sept targeted SDF headquarters north of Raqqa city.
Türkiye and aligned forces continued operations. Türkiye continued to claim targeting of Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) (see Türkiye). Clashes between Turkish-backed factions and Tahrir Afrin Forces 7 Sept killed five members of former near Afrin.
Tunisia
Pre-election tensions remained high as President Saïed’s regime arrested more political opponents and opposition mobilised protests in capital Tunis.
Electoral commission rejected court order to include more candidates in vote. Body 2 Sept confirmed its Aug decision to allow only three candidates in 6 Oct presidential race – incumbent Saïed, businessman Ayachi Zammel and Zouhair Maghzaoui of Arab nationalist Echaab movement; decision rejected Abdellatif Makki, Mondher Zenaidi and Imed Daïmi as candidates despite administrative court’s late Aug ruling granting their inclusion. Commission 2 Sept responded to criticism saying court ruling came too late and was “impossible to execute”; court, however, 14 Sept again insisted its ruling be implemented, as campaigning started same day. Campaign teams of three excluded candidates called on opposition to unite amid widespread criticism of electoral body’s decision from judges, approved candidates and powerful General Labour Union. Meanwhile, parliament 27 Sept overwhelmingly approved amendment of electoral law removing authority of administrative court to arbitrate over electoral disputes.
Concerns of election manipulation grew as govt continued arresting dissenters. Court 18 Sept sentenced Ayachi Zammel, one of three approved candidates, to 20 months in prison for campaign fraud, after his 2 Sept arrest; court 25 Sept passed second additional sentence of six months. Electoral body 19 Sept said arrest would not affect his eligibility for office, while Zammel confirmed he would continue campaign behind bars. Earlier, police 12-13 Sept arrested almost 100 regional leaders of Islamist-inspired An-Nahda party in investigation led by anti-terrorist judicial unit; An-Nahda suggested widespread arrests linked to party’s support of opposition candidates. Meanwhile, election officials 9 Sept denied accreditation to some election observer civil society groups, alleging they received “suspicious” foreign funding.
Anti-govt demonstrators mobilised in capital. Amid tensions, hundreds 13 and 22 Sept marched in capital Tunis to protest regime’s attempts to manipulate election; demonstrators chanted slogans calling for “fall of dictatorship” and end to political repression. Opposition nationalist Free Destourian Party 28 Sept held rally in capital to demand liberation of lawyer and party president Abir Moussi; Moussi, imprisoned since Oct 2023, given two-year prison sentence in Aug for criticising electoral process.
Western Sahara
Sahrawi traders protested restrictions on free movement as reports emerged of internal competition among pro-independence leadership.
Dozens of Sahrawi traders 18 Sept organised sit-in outside headquarters of pro-independence Polisario Front at Rabouni refugee camp to demonstrate against restrictions on travel and freedom of movement; protesters called in particular to be given permits to leave camps to travel freely to Mauritania and Algeria for trade. Meanwhile, Moroccan media outlets 3 Sept claimed Bachir Moustafa, brother of Polisario Front founder and advisor to Polisario leader Brahim Ghali, had stepped down from position to challenge Ghali for leadership of movement.
Yemen
Houthis attempted missile attacks on Israel as Israeli airstrikes hit Hodeida and Ras Issa; further Houthi attacks and Israeli counter-responses likely in coming weeks amid risk of wider Middle East war.
Houthis targeted Israel, triggering retaliatory airstrikes. In second strike on central Israel since July, Houthis 15 Sept launched ballistic missile as part of latest “fifth phase” of escalation campaign; while Israel intercepted missile, nine suffered minor injuries as they sought shelter. Israeli PM Netanyahu same day warned Houthis would pay “heavy price” for future attacks. As Israel unleashed bombing campaign in Lebanon (see Lebanon), Houthis 27 Sept targeted Israel’s Tel Aviv city in foiled missile attack. Israeli Air Force, in coordination with U.S., 29 Sept struck Hodeida port and airport as well as Ras Issa port, killing at least five and injuring more than 20.
Houthis reduced Red Sea attacks. Houthi ballistic missiles 2 Sept hit Panama-flagged oil tanker in Red Sea, as unclaimed drone targeted Saudi-flagged commercial vessel off Hodeida coast; Sept witnessed decrease from average of 12 attacks per month over past six months, which may signal fewer Israeli-linked ships passing Red Sea or group’s changing strategy to focus on striking Israel. U.S. strikes 2 Sept destroyed two Houthi missile systems; Houthis 10, 18, 29 Sept shot down U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drones. EU Naval Mission 16 Sept confirmed completion of operation to salvage Greek-flagged oil tanker MV Sounion carrying over 1m barrels of oil after Houthi attack in Aug.
In western Yemen, Houthis and govt-aligned forces clashed. UN Special Envoy 12 Sept warned UN Security Council of “escalatory rhetoric” and “worrisome military activity”, including along frontlines in al-Dhale, Hodeida, Lahj, Marib, Saada, Shebwa and Taiz governorates. Following clashes between Houthis and Presidential Leadership Council-aligned al-Amaliqa and Southern Transitional Council forces in Lahj governorate late Aug after Houthis sought to seize outposts, fighting 14 Sept resumed, killing at least two. Clashes show fragility of de facto truce and Houthis’ increased focus on Lahj and Taiz governorates, strategically located near Red Sea coast.
In other important developments. Flash floods and landslides in north early to mid-Sept killed almost 100 and affected over 250,000 people; damage to public facilities and poor governing capacity could drive malnutrition and cholera outbreaks.
United States
United States (Internal)
Authorities foiled second apparent assassination attempt on former president Donald Trump; VP Harris and Trump sparred in much-anticipated presidential debate.
Trump faced second apparent assassination attempt. Man named as Ryan Wesley Routh 15 Sept camped outside golf course in State of Florida, armed with assault rifle and allegedly in wait for Trump, but secret service agents spotted him and opened fire; Trump was unharmed and not at risk of imminent attack. Routh fled scene but authorities later arrested him. President Biden and VP Harris same day denounced apparent assassination attempt, though Trump 16 Sept blamed attack on their “rhetoric” about him as danger to democracy. Incident came two months after would-be assassin shot Trump during campaign rally.
Trump and Harris debated for first time. In 10 Sept Trump-Harris presidential debate in Philadelphia City, State of Pennsylvania, Harris focused on issues of abortion and democracy while Trump tried to shift attention to migration. Foreign policy discussions focused on wars in Gaza and Ukraine, as well as competition with China. Trump again refused to acknowledge 2020 electoral defeat, 7 Sept pledged, if elected, to jail any individuals involved in “unscrupulous behaviour” during vote, including election officials, donors and lawyers.
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