27 November 2024

U.S. Says Ukraine Needs More Troops, Not Only Weapons, to Win War -

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been hearing concerns from allies in other Western capitals as well that Ukraine has a troop level problem and not an arms problem, according to European officials who requested anonymity to discuss the sensitive diplomatic conversations.
Conscription has been a sensitive matter in Ukraine throughout the war. Russia’s own problems with adequate troop levels and planning early in the war prevented Moscow from taking full advantage of its edge. But the tide has shifted and the U.S. says the Ukrainian shortage can no longer be overlooked.

US Says Ukraine Needs More Troops, Not Only Weapons, to Win War


  • Ukraine must consider lowering draft age to 18: Biden official
  • Warning comes as Biden rushes to support Kyiv ahead of Trump

How UK troops could keep peace between Putin and Zelensky if Trump gets his  deal

How UK troops could keep peace between Putin and Zelensky if Trump gets his deal


White House urges Ukraine to draft troops as young as 18 to quickly increase its military size

PBS

White House urges Ukraine to quickly increase size of its military, draft  troops as young as 18 | PBS News
Credit: via REUTERS World 
Updated on Nov 27, 2024 5:49 PM EST — Published on Nov 27, 2024 1:35 PM EST
 

The European allies have stressed that the lack of depth means that it may soon become untenable for Ukraine to continue to operate in Russia’s Kursk border region. The situation in Kursk has become further complicated by the arrival of thousands of North Korean troops, who have come to help Moscow try to claw back the land seized in a Ukrainian incursion this year.
The stepped-up push on Ukraine to strengthen its fighting ranks comes as Ukraine braces for President-elect Donald Trump to take office on Jan. 20. The Republican said he would bring about a swift end to the war and has raised uncertainty about whether his administration would continue the vital U.S. military support for Ukraine.

“There are no easy answers to Ukraine’s serious manpower shortage, but lowering the draft age would help,” said Bradley Bowman, senior director of the Center on Military and Political Power at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “These are obviously difficult decisions for a government and society that has already endured so much due to Russia’s invasion.”

Ukraine has taken steps to broaden the pool of draft-eligible men, but the efforts have only scratched the surface against a much larger Russian military.
In April, Ukraine’s parliament passed a series of laws, including one lowering its draft-eligible age for men from 27 to 25, aimed at broadening the universe of men who could be called on to join the grinding war.
Those laws also did away with some draft exemptions and created an online registry for recruits. They were expected to add about 50,000 troops, far short of what Zelenskyy said at the time was needed.


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THE WARZONE

Ukraine’s Top Commander Wants New Counteroffensive, Says It’s The Only Path To Victory

Howard Altman

“Ukraine’s problems, meanwhile, are worsening mainly because of manpower issues,” The Economist recently reported
“The army is long out of willing recruits, and its mobilization campaign is falling short, recruiting barely two-thirds of its target.”
One senior Ukrainian official told the publication he is worried the situation may become irretrievable by the spring.
“An even bigger problem is the quality of the new recruits,” the publication posited. “‘Forest,’ a battalion commander with the 65th brigade, says the men being sent from army headquarters are now mostly too old or unmotivated to be useful. All but a handful are over the age of 45. ‘I’m being sent guys, 50 plus, with doctors’ notes telling me they are too ill to serve,’ he says.”

"Ukraine’s problems, meanwhile, are worsening mainly because of manpower issues. The army is long out of willing recruits, and its mobilization campaign is falling short, recruiting barely two-thirds of its target. A senior Ukrainian official says he is worried the situation may… pic.twitter.com/s8vU1G4udZ

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) November 24, 2024

Trump’s newly appointed counterterrorism adviser Sebastian Gorka calls Putin a “thug” and says Trump plans to end the Ukraine war by threatening to flood Ukraine with military aid, making current U.S. support look like “peanuts” pic.twitter.com/jKkfmmzvoK

— jeremy scahill (@jeremyscahill) November 25, 2024

What will happen to Ukraine after Trump takes the oath of office is unknown. While European leaders have vowed to fill whatever gaps in military aid might be created by a potential U.S. pullback, nothing is guaranteed 

  • So as much as Syrskyi would like to live up to the old football axiom that the best defense is a good offense, resource constraints and a change in political winds may make that impossible to pull off.

The Latest

On the battlefield, Russia continues to advance across wide swaths of the battlefield, especially in western Donetsk Oblast in the country’s eastern region.
Here are the key takeaways from the Institute for the Study of War’s latest assessment.
  • Russian forces continue to make significant tactical advances in western Donetsk Oblast and are coming closer to enveloping Velyka Novosilka and advancing towards important Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) supplying the rest of western Donetsk Oblast and running into eastern Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.
  • Russian advances in western Donetsk Oblast may become operationally significant if the Russian command properly exploits these recent tactical successes, which is not a given. Russian advances in western Donetsk Oblast do not automatically portend the collapse of the Ukrainian frontline.
Ukrainian military officials continue to warn of potential Russian ground operations against Zaporizhzhia, though the timeline and scale of this offensive operation remain unclear due to the operational constraints imposed by ongoing Russian operations in Kursk and Donetsk oblasts.
  • Russian forces recently advanced in southwestern Toretsk and south and southeast of Pokrovsk.

NEW: Russian forces continue to make significant tactical advances in western Donetsk Oblast. Russian forces are coming closer to enveloping Velyka Novosilka and advancing toward important Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) supplying the rest of western Donetsk… pic.twitter.com/KXko4iCHmK

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) November 26, 2024

Last week, we reported on a new (or newish) missile Russia launched at the Ukrainian city of Dnipro. Eventually dubbed Oreshnik by Putin, the ballistic missile had six warheads but no explosives, according to a new report by Reuters. This was a real possibility we discussed in our initial analysis.

The attack caused limited damage, two Ukrainian sources told the news outlet.

The missile, as we previously wrote, was derived from the secretive Russian RS-26 Rubezh intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM).

Russian Oreshnik MRBM launched at Dnipro did not contain explosives.

According to Ukrainian sources, the missile had multiple warheads, but did not contain explosives and caused limited damage.

One of the sources said the missile was carrying dummy warheads and described the… https://t.co/iEqdpu6qvF pic.twitter.com/MGSRvEzgmb

— Clash Report (@clashreport) November 26, 2024



European nations can’t make arms fast enough. Ukraine can make weapons but is strapped for cash. Now those countries have developed a plan to pay Ukraine to make them, according to a new report in the Wall Street Journal. 
Ukraine’s arms industry, operating at 30% capacity due to funding shortages, is now producing weapons faster and cheaper than Europe through the “Danish Model,” the publication reported. This system, developed by Denmark, funds Ukrainian firms directly to meet frontline needs and strengthen local defense. Countries like Norway, Sweden, Lithuania, Germany, and the Netherlands are supporting or adopting similar approaches.

NEW: Europe can’t make Ukraine enough weapons—So it’s paying Kyiv to do it

Europe is addressing its inability to produce enough weapons for Ukraine by funding Ukrainian arms makers directly. This approach lets Kyiv guide contracts to local firms for equipment like long-range… pic.twitter.com/LoOVvJPuxw

— Clash Report (@clashreport) November 26, 2024

Once shrouded in mystery, images of a downed U.S.-made Disruptor loitering munition in Russian hands have emerged on social media.
South Korean leader meets Ukraine delegation and calls for response to  North Korean troops in Russia - SRN News


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BEA News: Personal Income and Outlays, October 2024 EMBARGOED UNTIL RELEASE AT 10:00 a.m. EST, Wednesday, November 27, 2024

  BEA News: Personal Income and Outlays, October 2024 The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has issued the following news release today...