Polar Vortex Split Update: A Breakaway vortex is forecast to move into North America, bringing a colder pattern.

 

lenn Burns 

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Polar Vortex Split Update: A Breakaway vortex is forecast to move into North America, bringing a colder pattern. 

The upcoming stratospheric warming event and the Polar Vortex split, with potential winter weather outcomes will likely follow the rest February and beyond.

The surface temperature forecast for this period shows a strong cold polar air outbreak across the northern, central, and eastern United States. 

• This is just a single forecast, but it is a 5-day average, and as is something that we typically see after strong Polar Vortex split events.

The surface temperature from this model shows strong polar cold anomalies over the United States and southern Canada. 

• You can also see the warm anomalies over the polar circle, which replaced the cold air pushed out and down into the United States and Canada.

 

Below, we have the pressure anomaly forecast for the lower stratosphere at (12.5 miles) in the final days of February. 

 

You can see that the main core of the Polar Vortex is trying to reform, but a large core part will be locked over North America, impacting regional weather.

In looking at the extended-range forecast for the last week of February. You can see a continued presence of a low-pressure zone over the United States and Canada. While a high-pressure area remains over the pole, this indicates a continued presence of the Polar Vortex core over North America and a sustained northerly flow into the United States. 

Bottom line: COLD